Tuesday, July 04, 2017

Taking stock, halfway through the season

We're halfway through the season, so let's take stock of where the Phillies are, statistically. Yes, we know it's bad. But some things might surprise you how bad they are. Other things might surprise you with a bit of improvement. We'll start off with the record.

36-45, 13 games back
28-53, 20 games back

So, the Phillies are eight games back of last year's pace. That's a lot. If they win eight more games in the second half, they'll have 64 wins on the season.
Let's look at the rest of the numbers. We'll compare this year's half season to last year's full season. Then add in how much the stats differ at this point from half of last season's totals.

On offense

Stat                       2016    2017  Difference
Runs per game       3.90    3.76        +.14
Times shut out        11        4           - 1.5
Batting Average    .240    .243        + .03
On-Base Pctg        .301    .305        + .04
Slugging Pctg       .384     .392       + .08
OPS                      .685     .697        + .12
Stolen Bases            96        33        - 15
Caught Stealing       45        17        - 5.5
Home Runs             161      79        -1.5

So the offense is pretty much treading water. We see slight improvements in on-base and slugging percentages, batting average and runs scored per game. But we're seeing slightly fewer home runs and a huge dropoff in stolen base attempts. I can't help but think a slightly more aggressive - but smart - approach on the basepaths could help this team capitalize more on those small improvements.

From the mound

ERA                      4.63     4.74      +.11
FIP                        4.34     4.80      +.46
WHIP                   1.346    1.415    +.069
H/9                        9.2        9.4       +.2
BB/9                     2.9        3.4       +.5
HR/9                     1.3        1.4       +.1
K/9                        8.1       7.5        -.6  
Complete Games   4         0           -2
Shutouts                12       2           -4

Across the board, the pitching numbers are down. And it's not like they were in great places last year. You have to assume some of the problems come from having Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff spend time on the disabled list. 


GM-Carson said...

The offense is actually scoring fewer runs per game this season. I honestly didn't think that was possible.

Herrera has been bad, Cesar has missed significant time, and Franco has been downright terrible. Those are the big 3 of the lineup, so no wonder they're struggling. I imagine if those 3 were having better seasons this team would be in a much different place.

Nola has been pitching like we expect him too recently and I'm happy that Pivetta is getting a chance. The bullpen and rotation are largely a crapshow though.

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