Friday, July 29, 2016

August and September should tell us a lot more about 2017

Sorry I've been missing for two series. This week was our 10th anniversary and we spent Friday in Philly, it's where we honeymooned, so we return every year. And I forgot the Atlanta series started yesterday.

The Phillies have struggled a bit recently, but I feel the need to point this out. If you take June away from the season, the Phillies are 38-38.

Think about that for a minute.

Now, you can't discount all of June. The 2016 Phillies are a below-.500  team, that's for sure. But I think they're a bit better than their  47-57 mark.

Aaron Altherr's return is a nice thing.

I think the next two months are really about seeing what the team has for 2017.

These roster spots should be locked down:
Zach Eflin, Jerad Eickhoff, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Tyler Goeddel, Odubel Herrera, Hector Neris, Aaron Nola, Edubray Ramos, Cameron Rupp, and Vincent Velasquez.

Each has had his ups and downs this season, but each one has proven they belong on a roster. Maybe Tyler Goeddel is the fourth or fifth outfielder, but the 23-year-old jumped two levels and showed a ton of promise. Maybe he doesn't start the season with the team, but he should spend some time on it.

I'd tentatively put Aaron Altherr on that list, too. If we can see 25-30 starts the rest of the way, we'll know a bit more about him and we can be a bit more confident in what he can bring to the table.

A few other characters have struggled, but proven they could be on the roster, but in different roles in 2017. Cesar Hernandez or Freddy Galvis might be a back-up infielder. I lean toward Hernandez just because he gets on-base at a clip above .300. Severino Gonzalez is also intriguing.

Now, however, it's time to see some new faces, even if it's for a small sample size.

The Phillies could promote Jake Thompson any day now. It will be nice to see what he can do over 5-7 starts at the big league level. JP Crawford has turned it around in Triple-A. Seeing him play 25 games at short the rest of the way would be worthwhile. I'm not sold Nick Williams has to be called up. The 18-90 walk to strikeout ratio bothers me.

The Phils have progressed. A year ago, they had the worst record in baseball and we knew very little about the players who would be around in three years. Now we see some spots in the order being sewn up. Herrera can be an All-Star. Franco can be a middle of the order bat. Nola, Eickhoff and Velasquez can be trusted with about 600 innings at the big league level.

The Phillies are not one of the worst teams in baseball anymore. Right now, nine teams have worse records. The Phillies could catch a couple of teams, but that might not be in their best interests. If they stay within the 10 worst records in baseball, they can sign a free agent without losing a draft pick.

By the end of the season, the Phillies will know how good they can be in 2017. My guess is above .500, but not quite a Wild Card game participant. They'll have to play their cards right, but they're certainly on their way.

18 comments:

GM-Carson said...

I'm personally sick and tired of Freddy Galvis. Sure he takes the ball deep for a big homerun every now and again, but he's an out making machine otherwise. He has no plate discipline, so he'll never hit for average or have a decent on base percentage. He has a nice glove, but it doesn't make up for the lack of offensive awareness. I'd rather have Cesar Hernandez as utility infielder, although he really needs to get smarter on the base paths.

I hope Tyler Goeddel is stashed in Triple-A next year with a starting outfield of Aaron Altherr, Odubel Herrera, and Nick Williams. A 4th outfielder will be needed and that could be Cam Perkins or Roman Quinn.

I'm in favor of letting Cody Asche go. His defense is a liability and he bat has just never produced like people thought it would.

jhilton32 said...

Yes I sadly have to agree on Cody. One of my favorites but July 2016 is his Waterloo. Agree on Goeddel as well, would be best served at LV. Phils are headed for 68 wins and that's a decent jump. They had no business winning 63 last year, so it's a sizable step forward. Next year, if all goes well, we can expect another big step, hopefully to 74-76 wins. Expecting a winning record is pure folly in my view. Contention (within 5 games on 8-1) is reasonable in 2018.

ripjgarcia said...

Marlins getting Cashner.. gotta find another buyer for Hellickson.

GM-Carson said...

Its sucks Blanco and Bourjos are on DL. I was hoping each would be traded to create a roster spot for a young prospect.

Hellickson will be dealt, someone will panic and make a decent offer. A pair of lights out relief prospects that are in Double A or higher would be awesome!

Robert Dalton said...

Williams and Crawford will likely play in LV till playoffs are done then to philly for a cup of coffee. Altherr will likely get 40 plus starts the rest of the way.

GM-Carson said...

Go look at Cesar Hernandez's stats. He's having a decent year, getting on base around a .340 clip and a .700+ OPS. He's the utility infielder I want. Ever since Galvis was in the minors I've been against him because he simply doesn't hit enough and it's held true so far through every stop of his career.

ripjgarcia said...

at what point with someone figure out that Freddy Galvis CAN NOT bunt. Of course he can barely hit either, but he CAN NOT bunt for doo-doo.

GM-Carson said...

Freddy Galvis annoys the piss outta me. He's my next whipping boy once Howard is gone...but hopefully Galvis' role is minimized by that time or is gone as well.

ripjgarcia said...

25 minute rain delay and you pull the pitcher who is pitching quite well? This guy makes me scratch my freaking head.

GM-Carson said...

Mackanin is bad with his pitchers. He often pulls them too early or lets them go to long when it's apparent they meed out. I am not a fan of him.

I'm so tired of Andrew Bailey. He sucks, it's quite evident. Might as well give a young farmhand a chance instead.

GM-Carson said...

In 7 out of Bailey's last 10 appearances he's been scored upon. Release him.

GM-Carson said...

The only way not dealing Hellickson is a good move, is if he finishes the season on a good note and they extend him a qualifying offer to have him turn it down and then they get a 1st round compensation pick instead.

I find this extremely confusing. I have no idea what other teams were offering, but it made sense to deal him just for the mere fact of making room for Jake Thompson. I hate when the Phils take forever to promote prospects. Other organizations don't seem to hesitate.

ripjgarcia said...

not one flippin' trade. pathetic.

GM-Carson said...

The Phillies really need to start figuring out who can help in the bullpen in the future. Neris, Ramos, and Gomez (albeit, only next year), but Bailey and Oberholtzer sure as hell aren't part of the future. Not only should Bailey not be part of the future, he shouldn't be part of the present. Cut him! I'd have traded Hernandez for anything thing, literally almost would have given him away.

I'm not too sure a Bourjos trade will happen in August. He's only making $2M, a team is sure to claim him, unless they try to pass him through waivers now.

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