Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Series Preview: Phillies at Twins

On May 18, the Phillies were 24-17. They are 6-24 since.
That's horrific.
But let's look at why.
At that point, Pete Mackanin's bunch was 14-3 in one-run games. Since then, they're 1-3 in one run games. It's actually not the record that concerns me. It's that .414 percent of the Phillies games were 1-run games. Since then, only .13 percent of their games have been of that variety.
They've basically been getting smoked.
After a win on May 18, the Phillies had lost eight games by four runs or more. That's 19.5 percent. Since then, it's brutal. Twelve out of 30. In other words, they've been in about the same amount of games in which they lost by a grand slam or more since May 19 as they were in one-run games.
What happened?
Let's look at some numbers. First, we'll tackle the offense.
Times the Phillies were shut out before May 19: 1
Times the Phillies were shut out since May 19: 2
Times the Phillies scored two or fewer runs before May 19: 11
Times the Phillies scored two or fewer runs since May 19: 17, including their last six straight.
Times the Phillies scored four runs or more before May 19:  9
Times the Phillies scored four runs or more since May 19: 9
So, the offense has been far more feast or famine in recent weeks. When it's been there, it's been there. Consider this, it had three games of six runs or more before May 19, but four since.

Pitching has been the huge difference.
Times the Phillies shut out an opponent  before May 19: 6
Times the Phillies shut out an opponent since May 19: 2
Times the Phillies gave up three runs or fewer before May 19: 21
Times the Phillies gave up three runs or fewer since May 19: 9
Times the Phillies gave up 6 runs or more before May 19: 10
Times the Phillies gave up 6 runs or more since May 19: 13

So the pitching has been a big problem.
Let's look at some individuals since May 19.

Jeremy Hellickson: 4.97 ERA, 39 hits and 10 walks in 38 innings pitched, a .291 BAbip
Aaron Nola: 4.55 ERA, 41 hits and 10 walks in 31.67 innings pitched. a .376 BAbip
Jerad Eickhoff: 2.35 ERA, 35 hits and 10 walks in 38 innings pitched, a .291 BAbip
Vincent Velazquez: 8.10 ERA, 22 hits, 7 walks in 13.3 innings pitched, a .425 BAbip
Adam Morgan: 6.55 ERA, 44 hits and 6 walks in 33 innings pitched, a .337 BAbip
Zach Eflin: 10.80 ERA, 13 hits and 4 walks in 8.3 innings pitched, a .393 BAbip
Jeanmar Gomez: 3.86 ERA, 8 hits and 3 walks in 9.3 innings pitched, a .250 BAbip
Hector Neris: 5.84 ERA, 15 hits and 8 walks in 12.3 innings pitched, a .394 BAbip
David Hernandez: 5.11 ERA, 16 hits and 5 walks in 12.3 innings pitched, a .342 BAbip

That's not pretty.
Essentially, Jerad Eickhoff is the only guy pitching well. You could argue Jeremy Hellickson's ERA is a bit of an abberation based on his other numbers and he's not pitching poorly.
But that's it. Those are the main guys who take the ball for you in important situations.

Now, the Phillies are coming off an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
If these numbers keep up, or the woeful offense, changes have to occur. This team isn't talented enough to win a division or finish above .500.
But the play of late has been utterly atrocious.

The Games
Tuesday June 21: 8:10 p.m.
Wednesday June 22: 8:10 p.m.
Thursday June 23: 1:10 p.m.

The matchups
Aaron Nola (5-6, 3.51) vs  Tyler Duffy (2-6, 5.66)
Adam Morgan (1-6, 6.59) vs Kyle Gibson (0-5, 6.06)
Jerad Eickhoff (4-9, 3.49) vs Tommy Milone (0-1, 5.79)

What we know about the Twins

Minnesota has been a tire fire. They have the worst record in baseball, a 5.23 ERA, have given up 96 home runs, and a .309 OBP.
You just have to wonder if the Twins are the better team right now.

Key matchup
Game 1. The Phils are in desperate need of a win. Gotta start off this series with a W.

What we can't wait to see
Can the Phillies capitalize when facing a terrible staff and score some runs? I'm not sold.
As you can tell, I don't have much hope for the team right now.


Bob D said...

Minnesota has been a tire fire, but Philly is a dumpster fire and quickly spreading to the outhouse.

Bob D said...

Woah 6 runs in 3 innings!

GM-Carson said...

What the hell is wrong with Nola? This season has taken a bad turn anf everything has turned to shit.

GM-Carson said...

Howard now batting.140, just release him already.

Bob D said...

Good to see Franco and Joseph get some hits

.140 batting average? Sad, I hope he hits 3 HRs tonight

GM-Carson said...

Nola's last 3 starts - 9.2 IP, 22 H, 7 BB, 20 R, 17 ER.

He needs to shake that off and bounce back immediately.

GM-Carson said...

Holy pop on a popsicle, the Phillies snapped theird 9 game losing streak. Guess, they'll just have to start a new one.

GM-Carson said...

Pete Mackanin is not the right manager. He gives his starting pitchers too short of a leash, especially when they're doing well. He rushes to get into the crappy bullpen. Elvis Araujo, really?!

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