Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Klentak Be Making Moves Yo

Busy day for Phillies and here are my quick thoughts:
*David Hernandez was signed to a 1 year deal for a yet to be reported salary.  It's not an exciting addition by any means. He missed all of 2014 (Tommy John surgery) and when he did pitch in 2013 & 2015 he had an ERA of 4.41 with a negative -1.0 WAR.  He was an effective right-handed reliever earlier in his career with the Diamondbacks, so maybe he can rebound to that status in the Phillies bullpen.

*Matt Klentak sent Ken Giles to the Houston Astros for a nice package of Vincent Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer, and Derek Fisher.  Giles is an elite reliever for sure, but he's a luxury on a rebuilding squad, thus making him expendable for the right price.  The Astros met that price.  In Velasquez, the Phils get a strikeout pitcher that will likely slot directly into the rotation.  He's a consensus Top 100 prospect. Oberholtzer is a 26 year old lefty that can also slot directly in the rotation, having a 3.94 ERA over parts of 3 MLB seasons.  He's nothing flashy, but he can provide valuable innings to a team in need of them.  Fisher was the Astros' 1st round draft choice in 2014 and has hit well in 2 minor league seasons- .283/.837 with an intriguing power/speed combination while being converted to an outfielder (previously 3rd base). There is a rumored possible 4th player heading to the Phillies. That would just be the cherry on top. If I were a betting man I'd use Online Sportsbooks and I'd bet on this trade working out for both teams, a win-win.

*Reports have the Phillies selecting Tyler Goeddel with the top pick in tomorrow's Rule 5 draft.  The Tampa Bay Rays prospect was their 1st round pick in 2011.  He's 23 years old, bats right-handed, plays outfield, and has very good speed with some pop.  He reminds me of Odubel Herrera with a lower batting average, but more walks.

2016 Roster?
C - Cameron Rupp & Carlos Ruiz
1B - Ryan Howard & Darin Ruf
2B - Cesar Hernandez
SS - Freddy Galvis
3B - Maikel Franco
LF - Peter Bourjos
CF - Odubel Herrera
RF - Aaron Altherr
UTL - Andres Blanco & Darnell Sweeney
OF - Cody Asche & Tyler Goeddel
*That's 1 player too many.  I foresee an Asche trade or Sweeney being optioned.

SP1 - Aaron Nola
SP2 - Jeremy Helickson
SP3 - Jerad Eickhoff
SP4 - Vincent Velasquez
SP5 - Brett Oberholtzer or Adam Morgan
RP - David Hernandez
RP - Hector Neris
RP - Luis Garcia
RP - Elvis Araujo
RP - Dalier Hinojosa
RP - Jeanmar Gomez
RP - Dan Otero

In reserve: Alec Asher/SP, David Buchanan/SP, Severino Gonzalez/SP, AJ Achter/RP, Mike Mariot/RP, Colton Murray/RP, James Russell/RP, and many others.

39 comments:

Pat said...

I won't be shocked if they pick up another player in the rule 5 draft tomorrow after Goeddel.

Bob D said...

Jabari Blash is one that is hard to pass up in rule 5. Has huge power with good defense and speed. Goeddel is more balanced with a better BA and less strike outs. Severino Gonzalez is my guess to be removed from 40 man roster if they select 2 players as they only have 1 slot open right now post Giles trade. Though that trade has not been finalized as of yet.

GM-Carson said...

Gonzalez is an easy call to be removed. Don't see him having much of a MLB future.

I'd love to see Phils take Jabari Blash too or TJ Rivera.

GM-Carson said...

4th player to Phillies is Astros' 2nd round pick this year, pitcher Thomas Eshelman. He's said to be polished with potential to move quickly through the system. Personally, I thought the first 3 players were a good enough trade for Giles, so this is just extra.

GM-Carson said...

Just looked more into Eshelman. He set records for least amount of walks allowed per 9 innings in NCAA history. Amazing control. Probably a backend of the rotation arm, but hey, that's something.

So here's the breakdown:
Astros get an elite reliever that pitches about 70 innings per year.

Phillies get 2 arms that can be inserted into the rotation now in Velasquez and Oberholtz (lets say that's 300-400 innings). An outfielder that has future 20/20 HR/SB potential, and another arm that might rack up 200 innings a season in the future.

That's an excellent package.

GM-Carson said...

David Hernandez's contract is for $3.9M. That's rather steep, considering he's been below average since 2013. It contains incentives for games finished too. Meaning he's likely the Phillies new closer since Giles has departed. Ugh.

Andrew said...

Maybe Jake Thompson as a SP as well. Also Nick Williams should be up soon in the OF.

Bob D said...

Eshelman can go either way. He could be a back of the rotation starter because he has great control but lacks high end velocity or he could end up as a top rotation starter because he has pin point control and developed great secondary pitches to help his fastball. Jamie Moyer and Greg Maddux were pitchers who lacked some on fastball over other pitchers but had success. It would be great if he was more like Maddux but even Moyer had good success.

I think they will open competition for closer, or may even end up with closer by committee come spring. But yeah, wow, they paid a lot for Hernandez.

Bob D said...

Draft results so far
1. Philadelphia Phillies: Tyler Goeddel, OF, Rays
2. Cincinnati Reds: Jake Cave, OF, Yankees
3. Atlanta Braves: Evan Rutckjy, LHP, Yankees
4. Colorado Rockies: Luis Perdomo, RHP, Cardinals
5. Milwaukee Brewers: Colin Walsh, 2B, A's
6. Oakland Athletics: Jabari Blash, IF, Mariners
7. San Diego Padres: Josh Martin, RHP, Indianns
8. Baltimore Orioles: Joey Rickard, OF, Rays
9. Los Angeles Angels: Deolis Guerra, RHP, Pirates

Bob D said...

Round 1
1. Philadelphia Phillies: Tyler Goeddel, OF, Rays
2. Cincinnati Reds: Jake Cave, OF, Yankees
3. Atlanta Braves: Evan Rutckjy, LHP, Yankees
4. Colorado Rockies: Luis Perdomo, RHP, Cardinals
5. Milwaukee Brewers: Colin Walsh, 2B, A's
6. Oakland Athletics: Jabari Blash, IF, Mariners
7. San Diego Padres: Josh Martin, RHP, Indianns
8. Baltimore Orioles: Joey Rickard, OF, Rays
9. Los Angeles Angels: Deolis Guerra, RHP, Pirates
10. Toronto Blue Jays: Joseph Biagini, RHP, Giants
11. St. Louis Cardinals: Matthew Bowman, RHP, Mets
Round 2
12. Philadelphia Phillies: Daniel Stumpf, LHP, Royals
13. Cincinnati Reds: Chris O'Grady, LHP, Angels
14. MilwaukeeBrewers: Zack Jones, RHP, Twins
15. San Diego Padres: Blake Smith, RHP, White Sox
16. Los Angeles Angels: Ji-Man Choi, 1B, Orioles

Bob D said...

Manny Martinez was selected from Phillies in minor league round

GM-Carson said...

Daniel Stumpf is a lefty reliever that strikes out over a batter per inning. He's out of the Royals system, has a 3.21 ERA over 4 minor league seasons, and spent last year in Double-A.

Who knows, could be useful. No harm in trying him out.

Bob D said...

Stumpf likely to compete with Hollands and Russell as lefty out of pen

Bob D said...

Wonder if another SP like Fister would be signed. Also would not be shocked if one of Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, or Andres Blanco gets traded before opening day. There is room for improvement at second base and moving Herrera could be that player. Asche also is fitting in less and less

GM-Carson said...

I'm in favor of selling high on Blanco. Honestly, wish Howard wasn't on the roster, that way players could rotate in there to get regular at bats.

GM-Carson said...

Ernesto Frieri signed to minor league deal. Continue to stockpile arms.

ripjgarcia said...

one wonders what Rube woulda got for Giles.. but oh.. that's right.. He's just a 1st base coach now.

GM-Carson said...

Rube would have never traded him. He would have signed him to an astronomical extension whereas Giles would have become old and unproductive and garnered the fans' despise.

Bob D said...

What?!?!?!?!!!
The Phillies have traded right-hander Ken Giles and infielder Jonathan Arauz to the Houston Astros in exchange for right-handed pitchers Vincent Velasquez, Mark Appel, Thomas Eshelman and Harold Arauz, as well as left-hander Brett Oberholtzer.

Bob D said...

No OF Fisher, but pitchers Arauz and Appel added!

Bob D said...

So they switched Appel for Fisher and both teams added everyone name Arauz into the deal. Fisher would have been nice, but he is a lot like Nick Williams and maybe even Aaron Altherr. Appel gives a possible high end starter into the deal along with Velasquez who is highly regarded. I do think that is an improvement into the deal. Arauz (Jonathan) could end up good SS for Houston. Arauz (Harold) sounds more like a throw in but could be useful down the road.

GM-Carson said...

I think Appel is just a hype machine that'll amount to shit. Hopefully I'm wrong, but those minor league stats aren't over the past 2 years.

Also, the Arauz the Phils dealt was only 16 and handled himself nicely in rookie ball next year.

I'd like the original deal better, but whatever. All Klentak does is acquire pitchers. 5 pitchers for Giles essentially.

Oh, and he went and traded for Charlie Morton today too. Another pitcher!

GM-Carson said...

I don't understand the Charlie Morton trade. His 2015 ERA/WHIP 4.81/1.38, Morgan's 2015 4.48/1.25

Why not give the cheaper/younger player a chance to continue to progress?

There's just not enough room in the rotation. Nola, Morton, and Hellickson are guaranteed spots. Based on his fantastic late season performance, I would think Eickhoff has one too. Throw in Morgan, Oberholtzer, and Velasquez and we're up to 7 starting pitchers.

Oh well, I'm giving Klentak the benefit of the doubt for now.

icybeck said...

At least this guy is acquiring talented players, who knows if Appel will amount to anything but its worth a shot, and he might be hoping Morton has a decent enough first half to flip him at deadline, i would have like fisher in the deal but we still got some solid talent

GM-Carson said...

Not that WAR is the end all be all of stats, but I think it's useful. So...Morton's career WAR is -1.1 (that's negative!!!). Morgan's WAR 0.9

Not that it's a big deal if pitchers can hit or not, but it's worth noting that Morton is 3-76 over the past 2 years and only 18-249 in his career (.072). That's horrific! That's not exaggeration either. Of pitchers with a minimal of 250 career plate appearances since 1900, Morton ranks 1068th out of 1070 in terms of batting average. His OPS of .171 ranks 1069th out of 1070.

Bob D said...

Appel is a high risk high reward type. He has had the hype/production Biddle has had so far - teams top pick with bad stats. I do hope he is better. None the less, the team will have in majors/AAA 4 pitchers who could be top of rotation type: Nola, Thompson, Velasquez, and Appel. That is pitchers who could be from better than league average to an ace. Efflin, Eickhoff, and Lively also could progress to become average to above average pitchers. Not bad

GM-Carson said...

I'll do a post later tonight on the updated Giles trade, the trade for Charlie Morton, and some minor league signings.

Bob D said...

The Phillies have a log jam in starters at MLB, AAA, and AA developing. Nola, Eickhoff, Hellickson, Morton, and Oberholtz (out of options) will likely be the Phils rotation come April. Velasquez, Thompson, Morgan, Buchanan, and maybe Asher in AAA. Appel, Lively, Efflin (should be in AAA), Gonzalez, and Pinto in AA. Then where do Rodriquez, MAGonzalez, Pivetta, and a few others get put? Just a week ago I would have said 2 of the AAA and 3 of the AA pitchers would be a league higher. A good problem to have.

GM-Carson said...

Phils are stocked with pitching...starting pitching. Should see a big improvement next season in that area. Bullpen remains highly suspect. David Hernandez as closer...really?

Andrew said...

Pete Rose may have gambled while managing, may have lied for years about it, and may continue to still gamble. But I still think its time to reinstate. PED users only get suspended a few games, not lifetime bans. And Rose's continuation of gambling is irrelevant (or at least should be) since its not illegal. Rose deserves in the HOF and the writers won't even discuss it if he's banned from MLB. Its not like anyone will hire him to manage at this age, so just reinstate. Thoughts?

GM-Carson said...

Reinstate!

GM-Carson said...

More noteable minor league signings- Edward Mujica and Andrew Bailey. I'll get around to posting someday.

Bob D said...

The bullpen may be a rotating door for awhile.
Good to see Bailey get a shot.
Early thoughts on June draft, since there is a lot of pitchers AA-MLB ready as starters I could see the Phils pass over Puk (and other College arms) and sign Groome if they deem him the best arm. It could change the whole approach of fast tracking a college pitcher like Nola did. It maybe good to take a chance on Groome or another HS player especially if he is projected to be even better than someone who may be closer but a bit less talent.

Beer-a-Thon said...

How the hell are the Phillies going to weed through all these bullpen arms in Spring Training.

Bob D said...

There are like 20 that have legit shot for bullpen. No use on trying to figure it out. There is not 1 player who is guaranteed a spot, just a few that may have inside track - Stumpf being rule 5 draft. Gomez and Oberholtz being out of options so they have to make team or can be claimed. Oberholtz is likely to be in rotation.

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