Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Ten prospects for the Phillies to look at in the Rule 5 draft

No one is guaranteed a star in the Rule 5 draft, but there are several players available this year who could make intriguing picks.

While I assume the Phillies will go after pitching - that's what Klentak has done all offseason - my list is heavy with position players because I think the team needs some guys to take on at-bats during the year, too. Plus, I'm not a fan of giving up walks and all of the available pitching prospects - save a very select few - have issues with the strike zone. Here are my top 10 candidates:




1. Wuilmer Becerra
This outfielder has some interesting tools. But is he too young? Beccera will enter his age 21 season this year and is coming off a .290/.342/.423 campaign in the Sally League. He's the New York Mets No. 12 prospect. He swiped 16 bags and hit 9 home runs. He supposedly checks at 190 pounds on his 6-foot-4 inch frame. So there's room to grow.
If the Phillies drafted him, they'd essentially have to give him little playing time. But he could be a valuable investment.

2. Teoscar Hernandez
You've gotta love a position player who has reached Double-A, is 22 and hit a combined 38 home runs and swiped 66 bases the past two seasons. But he also carried a .219 batting average in double-A. That said, split between high-A and double-A, he hit .292 in 2014, so he might be worth a gamble. The Phillies have plenty of outfield prospects: Nick Williams, Roman Quinn, Carlos Tocci and Aaron Altherr. It might be worthwhile to add this kid to the mix.

3. T.J Rivera


I really want to like this kid. We've got a good profile of him here.
What's not to like? He hits .300 when he falls out of bed. He slaps some doubles. He can play all around the field. The only issue is he doesn't have a ton of home run power and he has never stolen many basis. Sounds like Cesar Hernandez, doesn't it? But he could provide some depth for this year and the coming years at the major league level. He'd probably allow you to trade someone like Freddy Galvis while you bring J.P. Crawford along. The Phillies could do a lot worse than drafting him.

4. Luis Perdomo
He's in the Cardinals' system so he's gotta be good, right? He's a flamethrower they're developing as a starter. His minor league numbers include an impressive 2.7 walks per nine. His 7.7 strikeouts per nine is solid, but his 10 hits allowed shows why he wasn't protected. 

5. Ty Buttrey
This Boston Red Sox farm hand is high on a lot of people's prospect lists. But he's never competed above high-A, where he posted a 4.20 ERA. What would a team do if they drafted him? They'd have to give him some spot starts and and use him as a long man. The Phillies have that need. Though he's 22, he seems far away from Big League ready.

 6. Corey Black
This kid's a gasser. But he didn't last as a starter and walks are an issue. He's averaged 4.6 per nine innings. I really don't like guys who give out free passes that easily, so he's lower on my list than other people. But if you can harness his control, he's a future closer.

7. Dwight Smith
After Delino DeShields Jr.'s success, it's easy to see why people are intrigued by this second generation prospect. He's got some speed and a bit of pop. He doesn't strike out a ton and is another 22-year-old who has reached double-A. Like Rivera, he's a safer pick, but for the outfield.

 8. Reymin Guduan
He's 23 and has reached Double-A, so he he's been around the block. He's a lefty who fires the ball, so everyone likes him. But he's walked 7.4 batters per nine. Seven point four. I'm not sold. But he's a lefty who fires the ball. Did we say that?

 9. Drew Robinson
Robinson is a corner infielder with some pop who has reached triple-A. He hit 25 homers and stole 16 bases last year. He doesn't bring much to the table when it comes to bating average and he strikes out a ton. But he has walked 340 times in 577 minor league games. He bats left, so he's not the greatest fit when you consider he'd be Ryan Howard's back-up.


 10. Tyler Goeddel
This kid looks like he could fit in as a No. 2 or No. 6 hitter on the Phillies today. He's a 22-year-old who played in double-A last season, knocking 12 homers and swiping 28 bases. He can play third, and he bats right handed.

9 comments:

GM-Carson said...

I'm a fan of TJ Rivera. He's always hit. If he could pull off a .280+ average with a .700+ OPS then he'd be totally worth the pick.

Pat said...

Yeah. I think he definitely could be a worthwhile addition. Especially in the coming years.

Robert Dalton said...

I would forget the high strike out hitters. I would not hesitate to sign a 3rd baseman, Franco may at some point move to 1st or vice versa. The best overall player from lower minors is tempting but also very risky to even stay on roster all year. As for pitchers they rarely play as starters but someone who can project to pitch late innings as set up or closer are the typically picked and only a few do well down the road. Even a player who will be a role player in a couple of years would be worth it. Goeddel may interest me the most, but Rivera or Smith could be quality picks too

Bob D said...

Great write up. The Phils could potentially take 2 picks again this year hoping to carry at least one (1st pick) and Take a shot on a 2nd pick. Not every team will make a selection so Phils 2nd pick could be number 20+/-.

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