Sunday, October 25, 2015

The Phillies mixed history in the MLB Player draft

New General Manager Matt Klentak certainly has a tall order in front of him. One of the biggest opportunities for him to leave an early stamp on the organization, while also moving the rebuilding along, is having the No. 1 pick in the draft. So let's take a look at the Phillies history in the first round, with a little help from Baseball-Reference.

First, we'll take a year-by-year look at the the results of the Phillies first rounders. Then, we'll take a look at how their efforts have compared against the rest of Major League Baseball.

Over the years

1965 - No. 18, Mike Adamson - Games: 11; WAR -.9
Adamson never signed with the Phillies and was redrafted by the Orioles two years later, but never left an impact in Major League Baseball.
1966 - No. 9, Michael Biko - Games: 0; War: NA
It hurts that the right-hander never developed, but the three guys drafted immediately after him combined for an 8.2 WAR in their careers. The rest of the first round included Gary Nolan (13), Richie Hebner (15) and Carlos May (19)
1967 - No. 14, Phil Meyer - Games: 0; War: NA
The Phils continued to struggle in the early years of the draft, leaving Bobby Grich to be drafted five spots later.
1968 - No. 11, Greg Luzinski - Games: 1,821; WAR: 25.2
Drafting someone who would anchor the lineup for a decade, help win a World Series and end up on your Wall of Fame is a definite hit.
1969 - No. 6, Mike Anderson - Games: 721; WAR: 4.2
Picking someone who plays 721 Major League games isn't something to sniff at, especially when you consider the next seven selections combined for a 5.9 WAR.

1970 - No. 5, Mike Martin - Games: 0; WAR: NA
Looking at the results of this first round gives you chills. The best player ended up being Bo Porter and the second best was Dan Ford.
1971 - No. 6, Roy Thomas - Games: 182; WAR: 3.2
Thomas was one of the guys in the package that brought Jim Kaat to Philadelphia, but the Phillies left a lot of talent on the the board - Hall of Famer Jim Rice (15), Frank Tanana (13) and Rick Rhoden (20) - after picking him.
1972 - No. 3, Larry Christianson - Games: 243; WAR: 10.6
Picking a guy who would spend his entire career in your organization and win a World Series is a solid draft pick.
1973 - No. 2, John Stearnes - Games: 810; WAR: 19.6
Probably the most confounding pick is this catcher selection. He was traded for Tug McGraw after appearing in one game for the Phillies. He would appear in Four All Star games for the New York Mets. Two Hall of Famers - Robin Yount and Dave Winfield - were drafted immediately after him. Everyone loves Tugger, and rightly so, but can you imagine a lineup with Winfield, Schmidt and Luzinski?
1974 - No. 3, Lonnie Smith - Games: 1,613; WAR: 38.4
Skates was a valuable member of a World Series-winning team in Phillie, another in St. Louis, a third in Kansas City and pennant-winners in Minnesota and Atlanta. Dale Murphy was selected two slots later.
1975 - No. 12, Sammye Welborne - Games, 0; WAR: NA
This was a weak draft, with Rick Cerone probably having the best career.
1976 - No. 17, Jeff Kraus - Games: 0; WAR: NA
The Phillies were getting pretty good at this point and weren't in as high a spot. But still, they took this shortstop two spots before Mike Scioscia.
1977 - No. 22, Scott Munninghoff - Games, 0; WAR: NA
Three straight misses definitely hurts, but he looked like a hit early. He went 17-7 with a 2.30 ERA in his first full minor league season.
1978 - No. 23, Rip Rollins - Games: 0; WAR: NA
This is the fourth of five straight missed first rounds. No wonder the mid and late 1980s were rough.
1979 - No Draft pick because of Pete Rose signing
No complaints about that loss. Ended up winning the World Series with Charlie Hustle at first base.

1980 - No. 17, Henry Powell - Games: 0; WAR: NA
This high school catcher never developed and was out of baseball within three years.
1981 - No. 20, Johnny Abrego - Games: 6; WAR: -.6
Well, at least he got to the Major Leagues.
1982 - No. 13, John Russell - Games: 448; WAR: -3.1
He wasn't great, but at least Russell played several years in the Big Leagues.
1983 - No. 22, Rickey Jordan - Games: 677; WAR: 4.9
A solid pick in this spot in the draft, the first baseman would have a solid career even if he didn't live up to his early promise.
1984 - No. 21, Pete Smith - Games: 234; WAR 5.2
Did you know the Phillies drafted him? The injury-plagued pitcher spent most of his career in Atlanta after being part of the Steve Bedrosian and Milt Thompson trade.
1985 - No. 16, Trey McCall - Games: 0; WAR: NA
Another guy who didn't make it to the shoe continues a bad run of picks.
1986 - No. 7, Brad Brink - Games: 14; WAR: -.2
At. No. 7, you need to do better, particularly after so many misses. He was selected one spot after Gary Sheffield.
1987 - No draft pick because of the Lance Parrish signing.
I just want to point out this was an incredibly deep first round. Ken Griffey Jr. went first, Craig Biggio went 22. Other first rounders included Jack McDowell (5), Kevin Appier (9), Delino DeShields (12), Bill Haselman (23) and Travis Fryman (30)
1988 - No. 11, Pat Combs - Games: 56; WAR: 1.8
Growing up outside of Scranton, I met Combs several times. He was incredibly nice. He gave a pitching clinic I attended. It didn't work.
1989 - No. 4, Jeff Jackson - Games 0; WAR: NA
This really hurts. The Phillies have now gone 15 years with a cumulative WAR of 8. EIGHT. Oh, and Frank Thomas was still on the board when the Phillies picked Jackson

1990 - No. 3, Mike Lieberthal - Games: 1,212; WAR: 15.2
With Chipper Jones and Tony Clark off the board, the Phillies made a solid pick in Mike Lieberthal. Alex Fernandez has a pretty good career and was picked next, but it's tough to complain about an All-Star catcher.
1991 - No. 10, Tyler Green - Games: 71; WAR -.5
We can complain about Green, who was selected in front of Shawn Estes, Doug Glanville, Manny Ramirez and Cliff Floyd. Those guys weren't picked later in the round. They were the next four picks.
1992 - No. 13, Chad McConnel - Games: 0; WAR: NA
The Phillies whiffed, but the best player (Derek Jeter) was already off the board. The next four selections combined for a 4.5 WAR.
1993 - No. 4, Wayne Gomes - Games: 321; WAR: .3
This was a very deep draft. Trot Nixon, Billy Wagner, Derek Lee, Chris Carpenter, Torii Hunter and Jason Varitek were among the next 17 picks.
1994 - No. 23, Carlton Loewer - Games: 48; WAR: -1.7
Remember when he was a thing? It didn't work out for him. He was traded to the Padres for Andy Ashby at one point, though.
1995 - No. 14, Reggie Taylor - Games: 260; WAR: -.5 - No. 30, David Coggin: 60; WAR .3
Despite getting a second pick for losing Danny Jackson, the Phillies didn't get anything out of this draft. Roy Halladay was picked three slots after Taylor.
1996 - No. 11, Adam Eaton - Games: 237; WAR: 5.3
So Eaton ended up winning a World Series with the team, after being traded away for Andy Ashby - who wasn't a part of the World Series winners. Strange how things work out, isn't it.
1997 - No. 2, J.D. Drew - Games: 1,566; WAR: 44.9
What you remember: Drew said don't draft me, Drew wouldn't sign, Phillies fans booed, Phillies fans threw batteries, Drew never developed into an MVP but made a lot of money.
What you don't remember: Troy Glaus was the next pick in the draft.
1998 - No. 1, Pat Burrell - Games: 1,640; WAR: 18.8 - No. 43, Eric Valent - Games: 205; WAR: -.9
Burrell won a ring and is on the Wall of Fame. Nice pick. Later picks included J.D. Drew and C.C. Sabathia. Fun fact: At several points, Valent would be a bigger prospect than many Phillies luminaries.
1999 -  No. 14, Brett Myers - Games: 343; WAR: 14.4
Two good early first rounders in a row. It's tough to ask for more than what they got out of Myers, especially considering five of the next six picks didn't make it to The Show.

2000 - No. 15, Chase Utley - Games: 1,585: WAR: 62.5
Possibly the best first round draft pick in Phillies history.
2001 - No. 4, Gavin Floyd - Games: 215; WAR: 15.7
A forgotten but solid pick.
2002 - No. 17, Cole Hamels -  Games: 314; WAR: 46.1
The only first rounder with a chance of surpassing Utley. That World Series MVP is pretty nice. Even though he's not with the team, the haul he brought back from Texas could really make this pick extremely valuable.
2003 - No draft pick because of Jim Thome signing.
Like the 1979 pick, you don't mind losing it because the player had a huge impact on the franchise. If you don't love Jim Thome, there's something wrong with you as a baseball fan.
2004 - No. 21, Greg Golson - Games: 40; WAR: -.5
This is where the dropoff begins again.
2005 - No draft pick because of Jon Lieber signing.
Hey, they were trying to win. 
2006 - No. 37, Adrian Cardenas - Games: 45; WAR -.3
 The Phillies got this pick because the Mets signed Billy Wagner, but they lost an earlier spot - Ian Kennedy - because they signed Tom Gordon.
2007 - 19, Joe Savery - Games: 44; WAR: 0 - No. 37, Travis d'Arnaud - Games: 206; WAR: 1.6
A later round pick isn't a guarantee, but the Phillies did leave Rick Porcello (27), Ben Revere (28) and Todd Frazier (34) on the board. D'Arnaud, who was a return on David Delucci leaving, helped bring Roy Halladay to Philly.
2008 - No. 24, Anthony Hewitt - Games: 0; WAR: NA - No. 34, Zach Collier - Games: 0; WAR: NA
Two misses in this draft.
2009 - No draft pick because of Raul Ibanez singing
They got back to the World Series with Ibanez in left and made the playoffs every year he was in town. It's hard to argue with that.

2010 - No. 27, Jesse Biddle - Games: 0; WAR: NA
This is looking like a miss, but Biddle is will still just be 24 next year.
2011 - No. 39, Larry Greene - Games: 0; WAR: NA
The Phillies lost a pick to the Cliff Lee singing (Trading him away bites again). The pick after Greene: Jackie B Radley Jr.
2012 - No. 40, Shane Watson - Games: 0; WAR: NA - No. 54, Mitch Guellar - Games: 0; WAR: NA
The Phillies lost a pick to the Jonathan Papelbon deal, but got two selections for the losses of Ryan Madson and Raul Ibanez
2013 - No. 16, J.P. Crawford - Games: 0; WAR: NA
He hasn't played a game yet, but it's hard to recall a more heralded prospect. It looks like Ruben Amaro Jr's drafts started to turn around.
2014 - No. 7, Aaron Nola - Games: 13; WAR: 1.8
He's already hit the big leagues and he looks like a rotation staple. Clearly a solid pick from that draft.
2015 - No. 10, Cornelius Randolph - Games: 0; WAR: NA
He's got a great name and he's getting rave reviews, but he's young and Phillies fans shouldn't count on him yet. 

How have the Phillies done?

It's interesting to look at how the Phillies have done in the first round.
You see a lot of misses there. But you also don't see many first overall picks. In fact, the only one they had, 1998, they hit on.
One thing you do notice is that the Phillies have not had a single Hall of Famer in the first round. It's true that Chase Utley and Cole Hamels have outside shots, but there's no one there yet.

But let's compare the teams who have all been drafting since 1968
While I'm not the biggest WAR fan, I think it's an honest way to look at how each franchise has done since 1965. I'll also note what percentage of picks have made it to the big leagues and any Hall of Famers from each franchise.

Atlanta Braves
WAR: 321.5
Percentage: 35 of 61 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 57 percent
Hall of Famers: Chipper Jones

Baltimore Orioles
WAR: 367.8
Percentage: 35 of 63 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 55 percent
Hall of Famers: None so far

Boston Red Sox
WAR: 451
Percentage: 44 of 74 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 59 percent
Hall of Famers: Jim Rice

Chicago Cubs
WAR: 235.5
Percentage: 38 of 65 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 60 percent
Hall of Famers: None so far

Chicago White Sox
WAR: 356.1
Percentage: 44 of 68 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 64 percent
Hall of Famers: Frank Thomas

Cincinnati Reds
WAR: 258.5
Percentage: 32 of 51 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 52 percent
Hall of Famers: Barry Larkin

Cleveland Indians
WAR: 275.7
Percentage: 34 of 65 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 52 percent
Hall of Famers: None so far.

Detroit Tigers
WAR: 233.4
Percentage: 36 of 58 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 62 percent
Hall of Famers:

Houston Astros
WAR: 277.4
Percentage: 35 of 63 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 55 percent
Hall of Famers: Craig Biggio

Los Angeles Dodgers
WAR: 290.6
Percentage: 32 of 60 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 53 percent
Hall of Famers: None so far.

Los Angeles Angels
WAR: 371.7
Percentage: 47 of 62 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 75 percent
Hall of Famers: None so far.

Minnesota Twins
WAR: 374.7
Percentage: 43 of 71 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 60 percent
Hall of Famers: None so far

New York Mets
WAR: 369.5
Percentage: 43 of 68 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 68 percent
Hall of Famers: None so far.

New York Yankees
Percentage: 28 of 53 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 52 percent
Hall of Famers: None so far.

Oakland Athletics
WAR: 481.6
Percentage: 49 of 75 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 65 percent
Hall of Famers: Reggie Jackson

Pittsburgh Pirates
WAR: 370.4 WAR
Percentage: 31 of 60 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 51 percent
Hall of Famers: None so far.

Philadelphia Phillies
WAR: 331.9
Percentage: 65. 34 of 52 picks have made it to the Major Leagues for 65 percent
Hall of Famers: None so far

San Francisco Giants
WAR: 321.5
Percentage: 51 of 72 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 70 percent
Hall of Famers: None so far.

St. Louis Cardinals
WAR: 416.7
Percentage: 45 of 78 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 57 percent
Hall of Famers: None so far.

Washington Senators/Texas Rangers
WAR: 348.5
Percentage: 48 of 69 picks have made it to the Major Leagues. 69 percent
Hall of Famers: None so far.

It's not surprising that the St. Louis Cardinals lead in WAR, but it's shocking that the Angels lead in percentage of picks (75) that make it to the big leagues.
The Phillies are pretty much middle of the pack, which is what you would expect for a team that has won two World Series and five pennants since the draft was instituted. The team is toward the top when it comes to percentage of players who make it to the big leagues, but doesn't have the best WAR and has yet to draft a Hall of Famer in the opening round.

In June, we'll know the name of the Phillies' pick. By 2020, we'll have an idea of who he is. By 2025, we'll know how good the pick was.


Bob D said...

Great read. Well done with your homework.

Aaron J Warren said...

Very cool article.

Anthony said...

Very good, thanks for all the work you put into this. If I can add anything, Pat Burrell was the first member of the WSBGM's HOF, so that's an extra prestigious award that you left out.

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