Sunday, August 30, 2015

Howard + Ruf = Good First Baseman

Ryan Howard vs. RHP 2015: .273/.839, 111 G, 41 R, 25 DBL, 18 HR, 62 RBI
Ryan Howard vs. RHP Career: .285./.944, 1320 G, 202 DBL, 14 TRPL, 265 HR, 813 RBI

Darin Ruf vs. LHP 2015: .365/1.011, 36 G, 11 R, 4 DBL, 4 HR, 12 RBI
Darin Ruf vs. LHP Career: .291/.897, 112 G, 32 R, 12 DBL, 12 HR, 32 RBI
Ruf's OPS against LHP is .222 better than against RHP in his career.  Howard's OPS against RHP is .227 better than against LHP.  A straight platoon seems like the obvious answer, and interim manager Pete Mackanin has been doing that for the most part over the past month of so.  If this plan is carried through with fidelity next season, I would be surprised to see excellent overall production from 1st base in 2016.


GM-Carson said...

The Phillies pitching is the downfall of this team.

Their offense is going to be okay next year. Not top tier, but not horrible either, towards the middle of the pack.

The relief pitching is just atrocious and the rotation has been shitty most of the year too.

1. Cesar Hernandez/2B
2. Odubel Herrera/CF
3. Maikel Franco/3B
4. Ryan Howard/Darin Ruf platoon/1B
5. Aaron Altherr/RF
6. Cameron Rupp/C
7. Darnell Sweeney/LF
8. Freddy Galvis/SS

I really think the Phils have something decent in Sweeney. I envision 15+ HR/SB from him per season. They need to find a way to get him into the lineup.

1. Nola
2. Eickhoff
3. Morgan
4. Asher
5. ?

1. Giles
2. Gomez
3. Garcia
4. Neris
5. Araujo
6. Ogando
7. Hinojosa

Aside from Giles and Gomez, none of them should be guaranteed a spot. I keep leaving DeFratus out thinking they'll wise up and demote/get rid of him.

Rob F said...

I really hate how the Phillies have mishandled Darin Ruf. The guy will be 30 next year, and still not have done much of anything at the major leagues

Bob D said...

Carson, I agree and I am confused as to why your not the GM. I do see that Hernandez, Herrera, Galvis, Blanco, and Sweeney posses to some degree similar hitting abilities. Some have a bit more power while others hit for slightly higher average or a bit more speed. I foresee very little being done in offseason this year as 2016 will be the year for all of these young guys. I could see a trade of one of them, most likely Hernandez on a sell high trade and allow Sweeney, Blanco, Galvis (if Crawford takes over SS at some point) take 2nd base. But only if another team offers a good deal. The Phillies can now deal from a position of strength in the infield with having so many options.

I can also see a trade of Asche as a change of scenery candidate and the release of Brown. If Asche returns it may be in a platoon with Francoeur.

Ruf and Howard will likely platoon at 1st while Double A MVP Brock Stassi gets a shot at AAA to start the season. Stassi a lefty would be the heir apparent for Howard in late 2016/2017.

GM-Carson said...

Not sure what Asche would bring in a trade. Doubtful anybody would really want him. His defense is the worst.

Brown is not going to be worth the multiple millions he'll cost next year. With Sweeney, Altherr, and Herrera, the Phils already have capable bodies. If Asche comes back, there's another outfielder. Kelly Dugan is soon ready. IF Francoeur comes back, then no way on Brown.

GM-Carson said...

Wouldn't be surprised to see Phils use a 6-man rotation in September once rosters expand.

Looking at the 40-man roster, I see Jesse Biddle, David Buchanan, or Severino Gonzalez as getting an opportunity.

Dailer Hinojosa and Ken Roberts are likely for the bullpen.

Jordan Danks and Kelly Dugan I foresee being extras on offense.

Usually a 3rd catcher is called up, but Alfaro and Joseph are the only two on the 40-man roster and neither will be brought up for catching purposed. Joseph has moved to 1st base after concussion problems and Alfaro is just now returning from an ankle injury.

Of course, Loewen is an easy drop from the 40-man roster to make space for Erik Kratz or Gabriel Lino.

GM-Carson said...

Ogando will also be recalled for the bullpen, forgot he was optioned to make room for Asher.

Andrew said...

The Phillies appear to have too much of just about everything, which is good and most likely is what they planned in trading all the aging stars. They have options. Carson's lineup seems good for now but that doesn't even consider the final masterpiece including other MLB talent like Crawford, Lino, Alfaro, Bogusevic (?), Cozens, Dugan, Knapp, Quinn, Stassi, Nick Williams, and others...

Beer-a-Thon said...

Phils been losing a shit ton lately.

GM-Carson said...

Colton Murray/RP, Erik Kratz, and Dalier Hinojosa brought up from Triple-A.

Andrew said...

We haven't heard anything about this Murray guy but he looks to be a pretty solid and reliable righty relief pitcher. 8.8 K/9 rate and a 1.07 WHIP in AAA is impressive. I also liked Hinojosa (another rightie) a lot when he had his first cup of coffee. I have no expectations for Kratz, however. Time to say bye bye to Loewen and DeFratus now!

Robert Dalton said...

DeFratus I will give a pass this year as an off year. But he needs to prove himself next spring for a spot.

With the Phils getting the worst record if it holds up, not only do they get the first draft pick (or top 5 at least) but will also get the top rule 5 pick. This year was Herrera and I would expect the Phils to have at least 1 top quality pick from a team that has a deep prospect pool. Usually a decently good pitcher would be available.

Murray is a good reliever the last couple of years so he may just be able to stick for next year too.

ripjgarcia said...

Dom Brown making a terrible play on a ball, and then falling over the wall leading to an inside park home run. Phillies season. Need I say more?

Beer-a-Thon said...

I feel bad for Dom Brown, he's concussed. He career as a Phillie is likely over. They're moronic if they bring him back again next season. He'll cost nearly $4M.