Wednesday, November 06, 2013

One Helluva Offseason Awaits

Ruin Tomorrow Jr. Ruben Amaro Jr. has stated that the bullpen, outfield, and catcher are the areas of focus this offseaon and that he'll likely have to be "creative" in addressing them. Below you will find the Phillies roster broken down into groups (Guaranteed Contracts, Arbitration Eligible, and Renewable Contracts). Also, I have proposed a set of free agents to sign with accompanying contract details.

Guaranteed Contracts:
1. Ryan Howard - $25M
2. Cliff Lee - $25M
3. Cole Hamels - $22.5M
4. Chase Utley - $15M
5. Jonathan Papelbon - $13M
6. Jimmy Rollins - $11M
7. Mike Adams - $7M
8. Miguel Gonzalez - $4M
Total - $122.5M

Arbitration Eligible:
*Estimated arbitrations earnings
9. Kyle Kendrick - $6.6M
10. Antonio Bastardo - $2M
11. Ben Revere - $1.5M
12. Kevin Frandsen - $1.3M
Total - $11.4M

Renewable Contracts:
13. Domonic Brown
14. Darin Ruf
15. Jake Diekman
16. Cesar Hernandez
17. Freddy Galvis
18. Justin DeFratus
19. Cody Asche
20. Jonathan Pettibone
21. Erik Kratz/Cameron Rupp
Total - $5M (each player averaging roughly $550K)

Total for Players Currently on 40-man Roster - $138.9M (round it to $139M)

Luxury Tax Threshold - $189M

Remaining Cap Room - $50M

This does not account for players such as BJ Rosenberg, Joe Savery, Michael Stutes, and/or Ethan Martin that will likely be called upon during some point in the 2014 season.

Suggested Contracts:
($) = Cap Hit
22. Carlos Ruiz - 2 YR/$14M ($7M)
23. Nelson Cruz - 2 YR/$30 M ($15M)
24. Ricky Nolasco - 4 YR/$52M ($13M)
25. Edward Mujica - 3 YR/$18M ($6M)
26. Matt Albers - 1 YR/$2M
27. Franklin Guitirrez - $1 YR/$3M
Total - $40M

Grand Total - $179M

Lineup:
1. Revere/CF
2. Utley/2B
3. Brown/LF
4. Cruz/RF
5. Howard/1B
6. Rollins/SS
7. Ruiz/C
8. Asche/3B

Bench:
Ruf/1B/OF, Frandsen/UTL, Galvis/UTL, Rupp/Kratz/C, Guitirrez/OF

Rotation:
1. Lee
2. Hamels
3. Nolasco
4. Gonzalez
5. Pettibone/Kendrick

Bullpen:
1. Papelbon
2. Mujica
3. Adams
4. Albers
5. Bastardo
6. Diekman
7. DeFratus

Minor League Free Agent Targets:
*These guys are coming off injuries or down season where they've been released/traded.
David Aardsma/RP
Peter Moylan/RP
Matt Guerrier/RP
Michael Bowden/RP
Kyle Farnsworth/RP
Carlos Marmol/RP
James McDonald/SP/RP
Aaron Harang/SP
Colby Lewis/SP
Cody Ransom/UTL
Brennan Boesch/OF

I know I didn't account for the entire 40 man roster and benefits, which would assuredly push the team over the $189M luxury tax threshold.  However, I don't think it would be much over and the front office might be willing to do this (or should be willing to in order to field a competitive team, especially with the money they'll be getting from the new tv deal).

Free Agent database and estimated arbitration salaries provide by MLBTradeRumors.

Salaries for players currently under contract provided by Cots Baseball Contracts.

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on the above team making the 2014 playoffs.  If you're a betting man, or woman, I'd suggest laying down some cash at Sports Odds.

18 comments:

Andrew said...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-land-mines-of-the-2014-free-agent-class/

1. Nelson Cruz, Outfielder: 3 years, $32 million

Cruz has had a weird career, going from being mislabeled as a 4A guy to now being perhaps the most overrated player in baseball. The way that Cruz’s value has been portrayed makes him out to be one of the game’s elite sluggers, when he’s really nothing close to that. While playing half his games in the hitter’s paradise of Arlington, he’s posted OBPs of .312, .319, and .327 over the last three years. Yes, he’s strong, and he hits some impressive home runs, but he also makes a lot of outs in the process.

Toss in poor defense, poor baserunning, always lingering health concerns, a PED suspension, the fact that he’ll be 33 next year, and the draft compensation that is attached because Texas made him a qualifying offer, and Cruz is a DUI away from Red Flag Bingo. It’s one thing to overlook all of these issues because the performance is just so great that the reward is worth the risk, but even a full strength, completely healthy Nelson Cruz is more of an average player than a good one. And that’s before we project how he’ll do in his mid-30s, as his body breaks down further, and his physical strength starts to slip away. Of all the free agents who are likely to get significant contracts this winter, Cruz looks like the most likely to just turn into a replacement level scrub overnight.

But, hey dingers and RBIs, right? The sole focus on “right handed power” has led to mediocre players like Cruz being labeled as difference makers, and some team that thinks they need a cleanup hitter is going to give Cruz way too much money and get far too little in return. The Phillies have already been linked to Cruz, which makes sense, in that his contract won’t look quite so bad when he’s constantly hitting behind The Ryan Howard Mistake. But at 3/32 plus a draft pick, this isn’t even a place the Phillies should want to go. No one should want Cruz at this price. He’s just not that good.

Beer-a-Thon said...

Where in the world where they get a right-handed power bat then? Giancarlo Stanton ain't goin' nowhere!

Bob D said...

Cruz sounds like Ruf when describing him - other than the PED suspension. Beltran would be a bit better but more expensive.

Choo or Ellsbury are my picks despite being left handed. Then go after a value pick for right handed OF such as Young (Not Delmon) It does put Revere and Ruf on bench or platoons in LF and 1B, but it makes more depth all around.

The team can afford to bring in 2 players who make $10mil plus a year and still fill other holes. Priorities should be 1 OF and 1 SP with that money, then another OF, SP, and several RP along with Ruiz at C.

Morak99 said...

Looks like they either bite the bullet on Cruz or forgo any sort of RH power outside of Ruf.

Jayson Werth, Jayson Werth, my Kingdom for a Jayson Werth.

Beer-a-Thon said...

Jayson Werth RF, Hunter Pence LF, and Shane Victorino in CF would friggin' sweet.

Of course, friggin' expensive too.

They need a solid bullpen arm. Someone like Jose Veras, Mujica, or like that.

Andrew said...

Except Ruf is 27 and Cruz is 33. And Cruz has been busted (and admitted using) for PEDs. Can't support that. He's too old for what he'll command also.

I'd support Choo even though he's also 31.


GM-Carson said...

In the days sans PEDs players starting getting old shortly after 30 instead of nearly 40 like a decade ago. Most free agents are 30+...problem!

Bob D said...

Cruz is OK, but he is way too similar to Ruf. Ruf wont cost as much and may even have a higher upside now than Cruz since he is younger. He is not my top pick or even 2nd pick. Not even sure he would be worth the expense unless he replaces Mayberry.

SirAlden said...

Guaranteed Contracts: $125M 1-8 check
Arbitration Eligible: $3.5M 9-10
Renewable Contracts: $4.5M - 11-19
Cap Room for Free Agents: $56M 20-25
$189M-$132.5M

Arb: (Bastardo-Revere)
Renew: (Brown-Ruf-Diekman-Hernandez or Galvis-Asche-Pettibone-Rupp-Martin-Franco)

Free Agents: 6 @ $56M
Ruiz - $7M
Choo or Ellsbury - $20m
Young - $3M
Jimenez - $12M
Halladay - $5M
Benoit/Mujica/Crane/Wilson - $5M
Smith - $4M

Lineup:
1. Choo or Ellsbury RF/CF
2. Rollins/SS S
3. Utley/2B L
4. Howard/Ruf/1B LR
5. Ruiz/C R
6. Brown/LF L
7. Asche/Franco 3B LR
8. Revere/Young CF/RF LR

Bench:
9. Ruf LF/1B R
10. Hernandez or Galvis UTL S
11. Franco 3B R
12. Rupp C R
13. Young CF/RF R

Rotation:
14. Lee L
15. Hamels L
16. Jimenez R
17. Gonzalez R
18. Halladay R

Bullpen:
19. Papelbon R
20. Benoit/Mujica/Crane/Wilson
21. Martin R
22. Bastardo L
23. Smith ROGY
24. Diekman LOGY
25. Pettibone Long Man

$189M

GM-Carson said...

Let me go on record as to saying Ubaldo Jimenez implodes next season like he has in the past. Last year is not the norm for him.

I feel the same about Erwin Santana.

SirAlden said...

Garza is worth a shot. Nolasco is kinda like Kendrick to me.

SirAlden said...

To me Cruz is a right handed Raul Ibanez. My team has a shot at a wild card.

GM-Carson said...

Roy Halladay is freaking awesome, but I'm not sure how anyone could really want to give him a spot in the rotation based off of what he showed last season. He's old and his arm has a lot of wear and tear. Not sure he can be quality again. Sad, but probably true.

Also- Ethan Martin over DeFratus in the bullpen?

Bob D said...

Halladay is worth the shot as ng as they have KK, Pettibone, Gonzalez, and maybe another starter to battle it out for the last 2 spots in the rotation. Same if they bring in Johnson or several other reclamation projects

SirAlden said...

Ethan has great stuff and hit and miss control, unlike Mitch Williams and no control. His stuff plays in the bullpen, if you take a look game to game in the pen at the end of last year he was pretty good.

I think of him as a Right Handed Bastardo when he is on.

I love Cholly and I rate him higher than most. Two things that Cholly would not do is play rookies over veterans, or be "Captain Hook".

Bring someone in and if they were on leave them in, and if they were on on, bring the next guy in. He also would let lefties in to face 3 righties in a row. Lee and Halladay also really liked Martin.

So as a Strato-Matic Champ GM-Manager I really like the idea of
a Martin-Bastardo RL Tandem and a Smith-Diekman RL Tandem who are both Side Armers. Nothing wrong with DeFratus when healthy putting Pettibone in the rotation in AAA.

This team needs to take many rolls of the dice to get past being a .500 team, and I would rather watch Halladay fail than Kendrick succeed at the same price.

SirAlden said...

"Not on" Be Captain Hook and bring in the next guy.

SirAlden said...

I love Corey's posts on Raij Davis and Young. I agree.

Beer-a-Thon said...

Huh?