Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Reid Brignac Hits Rock Bottom, Signs with the Phillies

Holy poop on a popsicle, Amaro has landed a former top prospect in the form of Reid Brignac.  The 27 year old might have unsightly stats spanning 6 MLB seasons with the Rays, Rockies, and Yankees, but he sure is versatile.  He can play 2nd, SS, 3rd, and some outfield.  For his career he's a .221/.573 hitter in 302 games.

Reid was a 2nd round pick by Tampa Bay back in 2004 and was ranked as one the game's Top 100 prospects 4 years straight (2007- #17, 2008- #39, 2009- #78, and 2010- #54).  However, his minor league stats surely don't suggest greatest  (.272/.764 spanning parts of 9 seasons).

Who knows, perhaps Brignac is a late bloomer and will be the steal of the offseason.  More likely that struggles to produce for the Iron Pigs and is released mid-season.


Anonymous said...

"Move along everybody. Nothing to see here..."

Eric W said...

After an injury, he'll be starting in Philly by June.

Beer-a-Thon said...

You never know, Brignac could figure it out and become a useful utility player. He's not too old, but the chance of that happening are poor.

Beer-a-Thon said...

Zolecki, who is pretty in touch with the happenings of the Phillies, suggests the lineup may now be set after the signings of Ruiz and Byrd. If that's the case, still a sub .500 team. Fuck you Amaro!

Morak99 said...

Assuming health (BIG if) and as good as production as I think it's remotely reasonable to hope for, I'd expect about 4.5 WAR from Utley, 3.5 from Brown, 2 each from Ruiz, Revere, and Byrd, 1.5 from Howard, and 1 from Rollins. 3B is a wildcard. Let's be optimistic and say 2.5 from Asche.
Galvis, Hernandez,Ruf,Rupp/Kratz, and insert backup OF of choice will make maybe 2 war between them.

This totals 21 WAR from the entire offence maximum. It takes about 40 team WAR to make the playoffs. If we get the standard issue 7 WAR from Lee and 5 from Hamels, that puts them at 33, leaving Gonzalez, two other starters, and the bullpen needing to produce about 7 WAR, which is ultimately non unreasonable.

In sum: if EVERYONE, and I mean without a single damn exception, produces best case scenario, and EVERYONE except a bullpen arm or two is healthy for 95% of the year, I can see this being a 87-88 win team if Rube builds the pitching staff right. However, realistically, I don't expect even half that production from the offence due to ageing and injury. A phenomenal job at building the pitching might get the Phillies back to .500, but with this offence, that's as far as I can see them going.

Morak99 said...

And I will say that I don't expect said "phenomenal job building the pitching" to happen either.

Bob D said...

Morak, true in a best case scenario the team will compete. Big difference between 2013 & 2014 will be depth on the bench. Ruf may be better than Howard, but after that you have Hernandz, Galvis, Frandsen, Kratz, and Rupp to fill in. Some of those guys have potential. So health is the key here.

GM-Carson said...

The offense is the same as last year, which means terrible. Hence, no playoffs.

Anonymous said...

Everyone was injured last year. Everyone. Go look at the Box Scores.

Older team - a chance at Weezz Kids 2.

It will be the same amount of offense with the same amount of injuries.

Out Most of/ Significant Portion the Year

Ben Revere CF
Dom Brown LF
Chase Utley 2B
Ryan Howard 1B
Carlos Ruiz C
Mike Adams RP
Roy Halladay SP

Cole Hamels SP 1st Half
Kyle Kendrick SP 2nd Half

The team is old. No team in the post steroids era trades young controllable talent who produces at above the league average.

There is no talent to Sign.
The Ownership has refused to spend major dollars on Cubans before MAJ.

They got older/injured. What in the hell would you have done differently if you saved 20 million on Howard.
Who would you magically have signed?

RAJ overpaid to try to stop the decline. The overpays did not pay off like Qualls Adams Papelbon.

RAJ is a Rube. No knowledge of Advanced Metrics. The Phillies Scouting has sucked to be nice about it.

The Reason the Phillies are in this state is because the Ownership who has more money than God would not invest in scouting - international signings - or busting the luxury tax.

In 2014 the Owners will be pocketing over 150 million Dollars.

Rube is just one of many in the head office, who unwittingly takes the flack to be a beard for the owners.

Wake up GM-Carson. This has nothing to do with the Rube. The team naturally got older - there were no young options to trade for - the Phillies Scouting has produced no young players of impact since Hamels until Browns break out May (after May Brown was so-so).

There are 30 teams chasing very few post steroid difference makers.

You have been fooled by the ruling classes. Rube is a figurehead.

Anonymous said...

And Morak99 thanks for taking the time for your post it was great reading it.

The team today with everything going 100% might maybe make the playoffs.

The team is still 5 of 7 needs away from having a balanced contender.

GM-Carson said...

I'd have never traded Victorino or Pence, which the Phils could afford if not for Howard and Papelbon. I'd have signed Joe Nathan to be closer. I too would have signed Mike Adams, so I can't fault Amaro there. At first base, I would have went after a James Loney on the cheap or Michael Morse type. Would have never signed Qualls, nope never! Would have given Grilli a shot. Hmm...
Would have liked to see more of Brandon Moss and Nate Scheirholz. Hmm...

Yeah, my team is starting to look a lot better, isn't it?! And that just the stuff off the top of my head without going back and checking possibilities at the time.

Morak99 said...

Ultimately, I really think the franchise was crippled on the back of three deals: the Howard extension, trading to acquire Pence, and the Papelbon signing. So much of the bad that has come in the last two years is a futile attempt to fix these clunkers.

Bob D said...

Rading the post here Brignac, it looks like it was copied and pasted from the Delmon Young post from last year when he was signed.

Victorino I would have not traded. Scheirholtz I would not have released. Adams I loved the signing and I was either or between Papelbon and Nathan.

2013 the top outfield would have been Victorino, Pence, and Brown in all of baseball but it was dismantled several months early.

Beer-a-Thon said...

The Nats just designated Fernando Abad for assignment. He's been good 2 out of 4 seasons and has solid numbers in the minors. Pick him up on a minor league deal.

Beer-a-Thon said...

Astros just designated JD Martinez for assignment. He's only 26 years old and still has some upside. He'd be a good 4th outfielder to replace Mayberry. Cheaper too.

Anonymous said...

You have forgotten how terrible Victorino was - and the money he wanted. The Phillies have that money. they chose not to give him $40 million dollars.

Now back to scouting. The Red Sox brilliantly told him to stop switch-hitting which changed his career path.

You hate the 100 Million potential loss to Howard - but you are ok with 100 Million to Pence. Pence is not worth it.

Victorino really sucked that last year automatic out against RightHanded Pitchers as he batted Left Handed.

Anonymous said...

Nathan vs Pap

Good call. But Nathan had been severely injured. There are two problems with this idea as often happens.

Many players from the mid-west and west coast do not want to sign on the east coast - with a team with such rabid critical fans. 1) Nathan was courted by 30 teams - so lets say for arguments sake that he wanted to sign with the Phillies.

Would you have known Nathan would be over his injuries ala Qualls or Adams? Would you have signed Nathan when the Phillies had just had a 102 game victory season?

Did you see Papelbon's decline?

Finally, 20-20 hindsite is really clear. Are you saying that you would have DFA Ryan Howard and signed James Loney? Not having Howard for the 102 Victory Season? That is just silly.

Schierholtz and Grilli are scouting issues.

I believe 100 million saved on Pence can be used on a much more valuable player.

Morak99 said...

Pence is not worth $90 million. He is probably worth $75 million. The Giants over-payed about what most teams normally overpay for a free agent.

Shane Victorino was probably worth $25 million this offseason. I believed that contract was a mistake at the time, but at least so far the Red Sox saw something I didn't see.

In 2011, Howard on the open market would probably have gotten $75-80 million for a five year deal. The Phillies egregiously over-payed for him.

GM-Carson said...

I would rather have Pence's contract than Howard's. I would have traded Howard and never signed him to an extension.

Bob D said...

All of these 30 something year olds just need to produce and they will win. Dramatic change will not occur until after 2015. A decent year by them all will result in a 500 team and within contention

Anonymous said...

Shane Victorino

2012 Phillies
OPS+ 94 oWAR 1.6 dWAR 0.0

2012 Dodgers
OPS+ 85 oWar 0.4 dWAR 0.5

While being paid 9.5 Million Dollars.

What is most important is the lack of dWAR - Cliff Lee wanted to kill Shane as I remember.

For 2012 against RH Pitchers
for both Phillies and Dodgers
BA .243 OBP .310 SLG 369

Defense Gone - AAAA Stats against Right Handed Pitching and his Agent wanted 15 million a year for 5 years, (settling for 39 million over 3 years).

GM-Carson this was not a good bet, so getting Ethan Martin was a good move at the time. Ethan Martin in the pen was very good down the stretch in small doses.

We can argue if Victorino should have been kept, but it does not show a terrible move at the time.

Anonymous said...

Give me an exact month and year you would have known to trade Howard.

Before the extension was signed?

"Signed extension with Philadelphia 4/26/10"

Andrew said...

Many would disagree with you regarding Victorino. Apparently he was the second best RF defensively in all of MLB this season.


Morak99 said...

For me, I would not have traded Howard. When he would have become a free agent in 2011, I have let him walk and would have gone after Prince Fielder, lost out to the Tiger's ridiculous offer, and would probably have ended up with Moss in the end. That would have turned out ok of course (much better than the real Phillies), but as a GM I probably have not felt great about myself at Spring training 2012 on that front. Sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you don't.