Tuesday, July 09, 2013

I Freakin' Told You So!

Ryan Howard has been a complete bust since signing his extension. Injuries, inability to hit lefties, plummeting OPS, shoddy defense, albatross of a contract, base-jamming "speed", etcetera. His latest ailment will keep him out of action for 6-8 weeks (at least we get to watch Darin Ruf). WSBGMs warned everyone of this upon Amaro's jumping of the gun to sign Howard before it was necessary. He's a large bodied man and swift decline and nagging injuries are a common theme among other like bodied individuals. I know as Phans it is difficult to hear/read the truth, but dammit we told you so! In other news, the Phillies won again and John Lannan didn't pitch like a steaming pile if poop. Go Phillies!

40 comments:

Bob D said...

So your saying; Howard at $25mil on the DL &Ruf at $.5mil is more productive, than Howard on the active roster???

Now if we can unload DYoung and get a better RF.

SirAlden said...

Where are your Chase Utley and Halladay and Hamels Rants?

Hamels? They are all White and so far have wasted far more than Howard.

Howard and Hamels may waste much more in the future.

So far Utley - Halladay - Hamels have wasted more than Howard in the last 2 years. Howard is injured ankle and now knee. Utley knees and Halladay Shoulder,

GM-Carson said...

This has nothing to do with skin color.

Howard- RBI and homeruns were all that he was good for but they have dwindled significantly.

Utley- is an all around talent that brings value in every facet of the game. Plus his extension was signed when he was the best second baseman in baseball.

Hamels- he had been bad this year, but almost everyone is confident he'll turn it around. He is only 3.5 months into his extension.

Halladay- was the best pitcher in baseball. Just as serviceable as Howard last, but a complete waste this year. They got 2 CY Young worthy seasons out of him though.

Now what?!?!

Andrew said...

Not sure what SirAlden is ranting about - I think most people in and around MLB agree Howard's contract was a bad deal (except for Howard!). And now its just being proven correct. Although Howard was having a "relatively" decent year compared with his 2012 campaign. Too bad for him. He's getting old and needs tuneups more often now. Same with Halladay.

I think you have to remember everytime one of these guys gets hurt, the team gets insurance money, so they don't actually lose the full value of the player. Not sure what the breakdown is, but these teams always cover their asses.

I'm very interested to see what Ruf can do full time at 1B or OF over the next two months. This team is not dead in the water; they're just average. And after the last several years "average" seems like "terrible" to us. A month ago everyone was ranting about Revere - now do you still want to see him gone? Also a month ago everyone though Papelbum was untouchable - how about now? I do think a reliable, veteran RP would help the bullpen a lot though. Shouldn't have to give up too much to get one.

Long season guys. And we are benefitting from an uncharacteristically poor division. Could be a lot worse..

GM-Carson said...

A healthy Mike Adams would have made a big difference this year.

Revere is doing exactly what I expected from him. About a month or so ago on Twitter I said that he would end the season .285+/.650+

GM-Carson said...

By the way Sir Alden, I love Jimmy Rollins and Wes Chamberlin is one of my favorite under the radar Phillies of all time. Color of skin has nothing to do with.my hatred of Howard's contract.

Andrew said...

Why Wes Chamberlain?

GM-Carson said...

Watched him play through the minors and he looked like a linebacker.

Morak99 said...

There's a big difference between contracts that look great at the time of signing and are worsened by injuries, such as Halladay's or Utley's, and contracts you KNOW are horrible the day of, like Howard's (A-Rod's and Pujols's are a few good non-Phillie examples). I feel I have no right to complain with contracts that were logical and don't work out due to injury. The reason I personally blast Howard's contract repeatedly is it never should have happened and was illogical and ridiculous the day it was signed, some two years before it went into effect.

Bob D said...

Utley and Halladay has produced during parts of their contracts. Halladay has only faultered this year which is the last year of that contract. Utley when in the lineup has produced well and was great in the beginning of it. Howard in 2 years so far, no exceptional production.

SirAlden said...

Hamels did great.

I really like M. Young
a Chase Utley kinda guy
we are very lucky to have him.

SirAlden said...

Howard's Contract going forward
could be a TOTAL LOSS.

What I am disagreeing with you at this moment is the current until today loss
on Ryan Howard is not any different
than the until today Chase Utley and
Doc Halladay losses.

SirAlden said...

Not to mention Pat the Bat
and Bobby Abreu.

ripjgarcia said...

I'll trade all my tomorrows for one single yesterday.

Bob D said...

Howard in 1st 2 years of contract:
2012 219/295/423/14hr/56rbi
2013 266/319/465/11/43

Utley contract 2007-2013
2007 332/410/566/22/103
2008 292/380/535/33/104
2009 282/397/508/31/93
2010 275/387/445/16/65 (115 games)
2011 259/344/455/11/44 (103g)
2012 256/365/429/11/45 (83g)
2013 276/339/504/11/30 (62g)

Halladay contract 2011-2013
2011 19-6 2.35
2012 11-8 4.49
2013 2-4 8.65
his contract extended prior to CyYoung season when he was traded
2010 21-10 2.44

So Utley had 3 great seasons, Halladay 1 great season, and Howard none on current contracts. Utley is on pace for a 20+hr season this year.

GM-Carson said...

Bob D with the check mate. Well played sir.

Preserve Jon said...

June Swoon AND Fly in July.
False Hope OR Annual Occurrence?
A taste of the future? OR Holding it together until the end of the season?

45-46

Offense if putting it together with chewing gum and scotch tape. Don't look now, but Ben Revere has been hitting like the player we hoped he would be.

Bullpen changes have finally been made. Accountability is a good thing.

This team is playing like someone opened a pressure valve.

SirAlden said...

Calculate lost revenue to date silly gooses.

Andrew said...

Lets not forget 2008 WFC and 2009 near-repeats, presented to you by heart of Utley's extension.

Or perfect game followed by playoff no-hitter and Cy Young award from Halladay.

Ryno...? anything? anything?

Bob D said...

Possible moves are to bring up Cesar Jiminez who is pitching really good in AAA. He could replace the next pitcher to bomb.

Don't count Halladay out, he could return near September. He is one pitcher that you can not count out. If the problems have been fixed, he could be a big boost to the rotation if it needs it. Lannan and Pettibone could become much more dependable and solidify the rotation.

Ruf could be an improvement at 1B, since Manuel will likely use match ups more with him there and give Nix or Frandsen some starts. Ruf could also end up in LF moving Brown to RF so DYoung could sit. With Ruf on the team he will likely be at least an improvement over the hobbling Howard.

SirAlden said...

2011
Roy Halladay 20m/20m
Chase Utley 15m/7.5
Ryan Howard 20m/20M

Roy Halladay 19 Wins - Chase Utley .259 Injured only 103 games - 116 RBI’s for Howard.

2012
Roy Halladay 20m/10m
Chase Utley 15m/5m
Ryan Howard 20m/10m

Roy Halladay Injured 3.67 era - Chase Utley .256 only 83 games - 56 RBIs in 71 games for Howard

2013
Roy Halladay 20m/0m
Chase Utley 15m/10m
Ryan Howard 20m/5m

Totals
Roy Halladay 60m/30m
Chase Utley 45m/22.5m
Ryan Howard 60m/35m

2013 Roy Halladay 8.65 ERA - Chase Utley Injured again coming on - Ryan Howard 43 RBIs.

All three have been injured for the last 2 years, Utley for all 3.

Andrew said...

Apples to oranges.

You're comparing the published contract values of the past three years from the players. You aren't comparing the first 3 years of each of their extensions - which is the issue being discussed here. Furthermore, do you know how much they were actually paid/how much the team actually lost after insurance kicks in? I doubt it. Finally, does it even matter? Its not your money and the team's management has plenty to spare.

The extension for Utley was brilliant. He was young, in his prime, awesome, and delivered a WFC.

The trade for Halladay was brilliant and the extension, as someone mentioned, came with him. His 1st year was unbelievable and helped us to the playoffs. And he can possibly still come back and help.

The extension for Howard made no sense to anyone and hasn't helped the team go anywhere yet.

Preserve Jon said...

You guys talk about these players as if they were pieces of cardboard with their pictures on them. They are people.

You always pay extra on the back end for a contract. It's a de facto bonus structure. Declining production is a given. Unlike financial investments, guaranteed contracts in a competitive marketplace mean that prior performance guarantees future returns.


Who cares what they are "worth?" What does "worth" even mean? Worth to whom?

The fans investing money, passion and time into following the players' performance?

The ownership, who look at financial statements and assess the bottom line to determine the fiscal value of a player's on-the-field performance, marketability, and (to some extent) team legacy?

The league, for whom the player represents daily in a marketing capacity?

The television station who assesses viewership, sells advertising, pays millions for exclusive rights, and makes money on top of it all? And by extension, those advertisers who may chose to use a player for their own marketing purposes?

The team who spends years developing a player's personal and professional life so that they may become a more productive athlete, teammate, and asset?

Amanda Hoffner said...

Who's contract compares to Howard's?..m. Cabrera? Pujols? Sry not that savvy on contract numbers...

Ether way...I am tired of guessing whether Howard's going to strikeout, hit a fly ball, or...rarely...hit a home run.

Morak99 said...

Amanda- Howard is in a three way tie for third in the most per year salary of any player, along with Felix Hernandez and Josh Hamilton. They are beat out be A-Rod and Verlander only. However, for a $25 million player, Howard's contract is relatively short (5 years) so his total contract value is a bit less. This is why as bad as his is, his contract is not as foolish as some of the long-haul black holes like Barry Zito or Vernon Wells.

Mike G said...

I know you guys are adverse to some of the advanced stats, but just as a high level indicator (especially because WAR can be approximated to dollars, rather than Sir Alden plucking numbers from the sky):

Left side is what they were paid for the year, right side is hypothetical value based on WAR (~$5M per 1 WAR)

2011
Roy Halladay 20m/40m (8 WAR!!)
Chase Utley 15m/19m (3.8 WAR)
Ryan Howard 20m/8M (1.6 WAR)

2012
Roy Halladay 20m/12m (2.4 WAR)
Chase Utley 15m/16m (3.2 WAR)
Ryan Howard 20m/-5.5m (-1.1 WAR!!)


2013 (1/2 season)
Roy Halladay 20m/-2.5m (-0.5 WAR)
Chase Utley 15m/13m (2.6 WAR)
Ryan Howard 20m/2m (0.4 WAR)

Totals - Paid / Earned
Roy Halladay 60m/49.5m
Chase Utley 45m/48m
Ryan Howard 60m/4.5m

One is not like the other. It's already been said, but the circumstances in which the extensions were signed is one of the biggest reasons to hate on the Howard contract.

Preserve Jon said...

Could someone please explain theoretical contract value to me?

Is this done in constant dollars? Inflation adjusted? What is the baseline value of a theoretical dollar?
Does 1 hit = $1,284
Does each 100 OBP = $1,852,672 x (2/(oWAR - dWAR))?

Please do me a favor. When you sit down tonight to watch the game or turn the dial to catch it over the airwaves, take a moment to recall a simpler time when you were able to just enjoy the sound of rawhide meeting leather and metal scratching clay.

Mike G said...

Well I didn't say it was a science as I know it's not for everyone. But it shows Utley and Halladay being worth ~10x more than Howard over the past 3 years. Regards of what the actual discrepancy in value is, they have been a LOT more valuable than Howard. Take into account when they signed their contracts, and it is obvious that Howard doesn't fit in.

Anyway, I was just trying to show something more numbers/factual based. Carson already put the argument in plain English, but Sir Alden doesn't want to understand and comes back with his random thoughts.

GM-Carson said...

Honestly, this is some of the best commenting we've had on here in a long time. I am on vacation with only my android smartphone so blogging is difficult. Thanks for keeping it lively for me.

GM-Carson said...

DeFratus has been pretty bad of late.

Sometimes it seems Lee throws too many strikes.

Glad that Ruf is hitting so far.

Bob D said...

With all due respect to Howard his last two years combined he has played 1/2 the time and posted: 25HR/96RBI with those 2 years combined. That is respectable but nothing to write home about.

Love that we are past 30 posts here. Good debate going

Amanda Hoffner said...

It's just not impressive or entertaining for me to watch a guy strikeout over 150 times each season in the major leagues since playing full time in 2006....

SirAlden said...

Series Win baby!

Chase! 3 Errors in 1 game!

Holy David Bell Batman!

SirAlden said...

It's all about the RBI's Amanda.

Nice to see you post.

SirAlden said...

116 RBI's for Ryan Howard in 2011.

1.6 WAR is not true value.

Without Howard that year we do not set a Franchise Record of 102 Victories.

Fan Graphs where you go that WAR is a totally discredited site - right up there with Bleacher Report.

You valuing 10th in MVP Voting and 116 RBI's as a worth of 8 million dollars and equal to an average second division middle infielder, shows your myopia and racism.

Bet you voted Tea Party.

SirAlden said...

Chase Utley batted only .256 played only 83 games in 2011.

You value that at 19 million 2.5 times more than Howard that year?

Silly Goose.

Andrew said...

I guess muddled facts and assertions are more valuable to SirAlden than punctuation, sentence structure, and coherency.

What are you drinking/smoking/shooting dude? Stop playing the race card in a forum where it has no place. Also, this is sports talk, so leave politics out as well.

GM-Carson said...

Sir Alden is a good dude, but he's convinced I hate Howard because he's black. When I really only hate his crippling contract.

Amanda Hoffner said...

I like to see a good game where they place the ball where they want it...have skill and athleticism. Not just homeruns. How aweful to watch when the Howard shift comes up...and he could bunt up the third base line and, even on his bum knee and sad achilles tendon, beat it out safe to first.... It's not entertaining to me to watch Howard....so, no it is not all about the RBIs...would you want Dunn on yr team too? He hits a shit ton of RBIs too.

Amanda Hoffner said...

I like to see a good game where they place the ball where they want it...have skill and athleticism. Not just homeruns. How aweful to watch when the Howard shift comes up...and he could bunt up the third base line and, even on his bum knee and sad achilles tendon, beat it out safe to first.... It's not entertaining to me to watch Howard....so, no it is not all about the RBIs...would you want Dunn on yr team too? He hits a shit ton of RBIs too.