Monday, August 06, 2012

Series Preview - Braves + Luck Factor

Monday, 7:05 - Vanimal v. Ben Sheets
Tuesday, 7:05 - Ol' Girl Parts v. Mike Minor
Wednesday, 7:05 - Oh great, it's KK v. Tim Hudson

A week ago, the Phillies faced these same three pitchers and got swept in Atlanta.

The Phillies are 16 back of first in the NL East and 12.5 back in the Wild Card.

Yet, I'd be a happy Phillies fan if the team would just release Michael Martinez and re-sign Mike Fontenot. What joke...

Anyways, I got to thinking about Cliff Lee and his horrible, no-good, crummy luck and I remembered back to a post I did about two years ago. Since I can't bring myself to write much about the Phillies and since we probably could all use a little laugh, after the jump I've re-posted my sarcastic take on luck and pitching. Enjoy.



Luck Factor

We here at WSBGMs are notorious baseball statheads. We really enjoy looking at and comparing UZR, BABIP, etc. We absolutely LOVE taking these stats and extrapolating grand theories and meanings with complete disregard to the formulation, limitations and value of each stat. Mmmmmm, I get goose bumps just thinking about proving Adam Eaton was a good pitcher via his strikeout to triples ratio.

So naturally, we are taking the next logical step in our stat evolution, from appreciation and misuse to creation. That’s right, welcome to a new era in baseball stats – WSBGMametrics.

The first stat I’d like to share with you is one that we’ve used on this blog before: the Luck Factor.

Some will argue that giving up four homeruns in one game is bad luck because HR:FB ratios measured over an extended period of time will be relatively consistent for all pitchers. At WSBGMs, we say bullshit. If you want talk about luck you have to prove it and after strenuous, pencil-breaking research, we’ve come up with a way to really tell how lucky a pitcher is.

K – The only constant in this equation, ‘K’ equals the average length of a “lucky” rabbit’s foot, status post amputation and coloration with fluorescent dye.

S – The length of visible sock/stirrup. Any question why Jamie Moyer can pitch into his 60’s? Well, this equation and variable answers that. If you can see the Liberty Bell, you can get people out no matter how fast you throw.

B – The Beard Factor. This is a very complicated variable with an almost unlimited possible value. Each specific facial hair style – handlebar mustache, soul patch, fu Manchu, etc. – has its own effect on the Luck Factor. The equation for calculating the Beard Factor is more complex than the Luck Factor and is too much for the puny minds that read this site. But I will let you in on one part – if you copy the Beard Factor of a teammate (ie Kendrick going for the Halladay beard) it can result in negative Luck. Get your own style Kyle or risk a poor Luck Factor!

G – The color of the pitchers glove. One for a standard brown leather or black mitt, but 2 if your glove matches your uniform color. This is a big variable in the equation and pretty much the only reason Jose Mesa had as many saves as he did with the Phils. Just imagine if Jose would have traded in his maroon or blue glove for a bland brown…perish the thought.

R – The number of times the pitcher touches the rosin bag per inning pitched. The alternative name for this is the Turk Wendell Factor.

Sri Lanka – The temperature in Sri Jayawardenapura Kotte, Sri Lanka at the time of the first pitch. This took a lot of time cross-referencing ERAs with capital city temperatures but we finally got it.

So there you have it. The next time Cole Hamels gives up a bunch of dingers or Brad Lidge blows a save, instead of saying, “Bad luck for him tonight” you can say “Must’ve been a hot day in Sri Lanka” and the real statheads will know what you mean.

6 comments:

GM-Carson said...

Cliff Lee has horrible luck factor. Poor Guy

Oh wait, he's actually really freaking rich.

Bob D said...

Hottest Year ever on record in Sri Lanka

Aaron said...

Y. Betancourt DFA,d. We should sign him just so I don't have to see Minimart.

GM-Carson said...

Sellout streak over at 257.

Ben said...

Sellout streak over? Manuel is fired tomorrow morning.

GM-Carson said...

Manuel isn't going anywhere...unfortunately.