Wednesday, April 04, 2012

Confidence Meters - Pre-Season 2012


Halladay. Lee. Hamels. Until I have some reason to think otherwise, I'm feeling pretty good. [Considering I didn't feel too bad about Myers, Wolf and Padilla ten years ago...]



There are threats of Juan Pierre getting hundreds of at-bats. A minor league shortstop is starting at second base. Jim Thome is playing first base and it isn't 2004. Needless to day, things don't look too good.



This group has potential but there are some concerns. Bastardo's velocity has been down this spring with rumors of "arm problems." Contreras is old as dirt, coming off of arm surgery and will start the season on the DL. Stutes also might start the season on the DL.

8 comments:

GM-Carson said...

I agree with you on the rotation and offense, but I would step the bullpen down a notch. I only trust Papelbon, nobody else at this point due to health/velocity issues or past performance.

Preserve Jon said...

I don't know Carson, I have to disagree on the 'pen. The fact that I haven't heard word one about Qualls, Herndon, Kendrink and Savery is - in my opinion - reassuraing. I shouldn't have to hear about them. That's the highest compliment they can get.

Bullpens are like children - as my great grandmother used to say - they should be seen and not heard.

Bob D said...

T rotation looks awesome, besides the top three Blanton and Worley may be outpitching them.

The bullpen has Kendrick, Savery who both look great this year. Some of the others look not so great ut there is plenty of depth in minors

The offense is a concern only because they are not as good/powerful as in the past. But they havent really taken much of a step backwards. I'd say the are a notch or two higher

Defense has to rate really high - maybe even the best in baseball.

GM-Carson said...

Rays probably have best defense in baseball.

I'm thinking 91-71 this season, 1st in NL East...barely.

Ben said...

I'd agreee on the Rotation, I'd put the Pen a little higher, and I'd agree on the the offence. I think the Howard and Utley-less Phils are probably about a .540 or .550 ballclub. Factoring in their return and an invetiable RAJ "screw the future to help the present" trade, I'll say 93-69 and a NL Championchip series end for the season.

Preserve Jon said...

I can't get over how similar Roy Halladay and Tim Hudson stats are. I just took a look at this and it's freaking me out. Halladay is two years younger, but has accomplished nearly identical stats (partially influenced by his awful 2000 campaign) in the following categories: W-L record, ERA, Games, innings pitched, strikeouts, homeruns and SO/9.

The only statistical advantages are in BB/9, Shutouts, BB and WAR. How can this be? Conventional wisdom places Halladay leagues above Hudson, but their statistics are virtually identical except for a contrived metric that places value on players.

Check out the comparables:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hudsoti01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml

Beer-a-Thon said...

Hudson has been consistently good for longer, but Halladay has been dominating for the past 3 seasons or so. Hudson is a damn good pitcher, but Halladay is the BEST.

Solo Vaporizer said...

The felony is a issue only because they are not as good/powerful as in the last. But they have really taken much of a phase in reverse. I'd say the are a level or two higher