Friday, February 17, 2012

ESPN Player Projections

Starting next week (hopefully) Corey and I will be introducing an over/under projection for the Phillies players. We will average our statistical projections then ask you, the reader, over or under. Below are ESPN's player projections for the 2012 season. Many of them are in line with what I am predicting, but a bit are skewed. See for yourself...

Starting 8:
Carlos Ruiz/C - .284/.778, 47 R, 7 HR, 46 RBI.

Ryan Howard/1B - .268/.872, 57 R, 23 HR, 78 RBI.

Chase Utley/2B - .277/.832, 80 R, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 18 SB.

Placido Polanco/3B - .280/.687, 53 R, 5 HR, 48 RBI.

Jimmy Rollins/SS - .272/.747, 86 R, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 29 SB.

John Mayberry/LF - .246/.706, 47 R, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 10 SB.

Shane Victorino/CF - .275/.806, 93 R, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 24 SB.

Hunter Pence/RF - .289/.813, 85 R, 23 HR, 91 RBI, 11 SB.

Bench:
Laynce Nix/OF - .259/.771, 32 R, 12 HR, 36 RBI.

Jim Thome/1B/PH - .255/.889, 42 R, 22 HR, 59 RBI.

Ty Wigginton/UTL - .252/.720, 49 R, 14 HR, 50 RBI.

Brian Schneider/C - .230/.638, 17 R, 3 HR, 18 RBI.

Michael Martinez/UTL - .218/.573, 15 R, 2 HR, 13 RBI.

Domonic Brown/OF - .242/.705, 32 R, 7 HR, 27 RBI, 10 SB.

Juan Pierre/OF - .277/.653, 36 R, 21 RBI, 18 SB.

Rotation:
Roy Halladay - 19 W, 238 IP, 212 K, 2.68/1.07.

Cliff Lee - 18 W, 235 IP, 218 K, 3.10/1.09.

Cole Hamels - 16 W, 216 IP, 201 K, 3.04/1.12.

Vance Worley - 10 W, 170 IP, 140 K, 3.92/1.30.

Joe Blanton - 9 W, 152 IP, 123 K, 4.20/1.34.

Joel Pineiro - 9 W, 172 IP, 82 K, 4.50/1.36.

Bullpen:
Jonathan Papelbon - 5 W, 40 SV, 66 IP, 85 K, 2.73/1.08.

Kyle Kendrick - 8 W, 102 IP, 49 K, 3.26/1.32.

Antonio Bastardo - 5 W, 12 HLD, 55 IP, 66 K, 2.62/1.09.

Michael Stutes - 4 W, 11 HLD, 63 IP, 62 K, 3.57/1.30.

Jose Contreras - 2 W, 3 HLD, 33 IP, 28 K, 4.09/1.33.

Dontrelle Willis - 1 W, 3 HLD, 27 IP, 19 K, 4.67/1.59.

Chad Qualls- 4 W, 19 HLD, 66 IP, 43 K, 3.55/1.35.

Brian Sanches - 3 W, 4 HLD, 50 IP, 41 K, 3.78/1.34.

Justin De Fratus - 3 W, 51 IP, 60 K, 3.18/1.24.

David Herndon - 3 W, 3 HLD, 55 IP, 36 K, 4.42/1.38.

Notes:
For the most part, these seem fair. However, I disagree with the following- John Mayberry will have a much better season, no way Thome gets that many plate appearances, Dom Brown will get stuck in AAA, Pineiro will not be pitching 172 innings in a Phillies uniform, KK is not repeating a low ERA, Willis won't be that bad if used properly, and De Fratus is not getting a shot at 51 IP.

10 comments:

Squire McGuire said...

that adds up to 116 wins BABY!!!!!!!!!

GM-Carson said...

Yeah, I also don't foresee that happening.

Bob D said...

I saw that 116 wins. That's alot of hrs from the bench. Utley will likely have a good rebound year and Victorino should be a bit better on average and hrs.

GM-Carson said...

I'm thinking 92-96 wins. Not making a real prediction yet, need more time, but my # will likely fall in that range.

Ryan Gillon said...

That adds up to 116 wins... yes.

GM-Carson said...

From Jayson Stark:
Bet you didn't know that only two right-handed setup men in baseball (David Robertson and Mike Adams) made more scoreless appearances than the 61 zeroes Chad Qualls put up last season. Yet, it cost the Phillies only $1.15 million to bring that act east. Now all they have to do is attempt to hypnotize him into believing pitching at Citizens Bank Park is EXACTLY like working at Petco.

He also ranked Juan Pierre and Joel Pineiro as 2 of the 3 best minor league deals this offseason.

He also notes Papelbon's contract as the worst this winter.

GM-Carson said...

Oops, I forgot to include poor ol' David Herndon in the post. Now fixed.

DB29 said...

There is no way Thome hits 22 HRs. I would love to see it though.

Andrew said...

Looks like they're assuming Utley doesn't play a full season, which may be a good assumption. However, if he does, he'll have better production that that, for sure (25HR, 100R, 90 RBI).

Also agree Mayberry has better stats. Also think Vic can up the BA a bit.

Interesting that Qualls gets the major setup role here...

Bob D said...

I do not forsee Pinero and Brown getting that much playing time. With Polanco and Utley have such a bad off year last year, I only see better stats from both of them.