Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Off-Season Priorities - #2 – Payroll Flexibility

While Priority #1 may be to sign OGP to a multi-year contract, the Phils need to get their financial house in order before they should think about further signings. Specifically they need to drop some salaries. Let’s take a look at one theoretical situation where the Phils could clear some money.

-         1) Decline the option on Brad Lidge. This is a pretty obvious one and they shouldn’t waste any time. It will cost them $1.5million to say goodbye to Lidge but there is no way they can pay this guy $12.5million. That is a net of $11 million compared to last season’s payroll.

-         2) Decline the option on Roy Oswalt. I would loveto have the “Big 4” together for another season but I think not letting Hamels hit the free agent market is more important and to sign him, they’ll need Oswalt’s money. It will cost $2 million to buyout the contract. That saves $14 million compared to 2011.

By declining these options, the Phillies theoretically have$25 million that was spent in 2011 to reinvest into 2012. Raul Ibanez and his$11.5 million are off the books in 2012 as is Ryan Madson and his $4.5 million. Gload and Schneider go and take about $3 million with them, which brings the shopping money to $44 million. 

However, the following players are due for pay raises – Lee($10.5 mil), Polanco ($1 mil), Ruiz ($1 mil) and Victorino ($2 mil). Kendrick goesto arbitration and will likely get a small raise. Hunter Pence goes to arbitration and will get a big raise, same for Cole Hamels if it gets that far. Ben Francisco is also arbitration eligible but may not even be offered so we’ll just ignore him for now.

So, if Oswalt and Lidge go, and the Phils let all eligible players go to arbitration, I estimate that the team will have about $20 million to spend on their needs (bullpen, LF, bench, etc.).

If the Phils could sign Hamels to an extension and pay him $16-18 million next season (a $7-9 million raise over 2011), they would still have $10-15 million to get a closer, a reliever and some bench players without significantly increasing salary over last year.

Now, if they could get somebody to take Joe Blanton and his$8.5, they’d really be in business…

11 comments:

GM-Carson said...

Corey- you're forgetting shortstop as a major need. That's gonna tie up a lot of money if they resign Rollins.

I think the Phils should try trading Blanton straight up for another player on the last year of a contract that could be valuable for the Phils bench (becasically, both players are unwanted by their current teams and are doing a salary dump).

Maybe if Boston exercises Marco Scuarto's $6M option, that would be a fit, because the BoSox need starting pitching and the Phils might need a shortstop. If not, Scutaro can fill in at 3rd, SS, and 2nd and is a helluva lot better than Valdez.

Corey said...

i didn't necessarily forget it. i just looked at shortstop as a "net zero" position so i didn't include it in the totals. jimmy rollins made 8.5 million last year and i can't see him making significantly more than that in 2012 or paying anyone else more than that (unless they sign jose reyes). basically, i'm assuming shortstop money spent in 2011 will be shortstop money spent in 2010.

this position will be addressed more in a post late this week.

Bob D said...

Francisco will likely be allowed to walk, Kendrick could also in a cost cutting move but he has good value still - I'd say 60% chance he stays and fights Blanton for the 5th starter.

Doesn't Howard get a raise? $20m to $25m?

Pence and Hamels are the wild cards on exactly how big of a raise do they get. That may be the difference between bringing in another bat for 3B/IF or not.

How much a raise does GM get?

Corey said...

Howard doesn't go to 25 million until 2014. just when he'll be hitting his prime, right?

Corey said...

the GMs get a standard 3% raise every year.

GM-Carson said...

I see where you're coming from on the SS thing now Corey. Your logic makes sense, just didn't follow it at first.

SirAlden said...

Next year Blanton and Polanco come off the books.

The Phillies are in good shape.

SirAlden said...

Howard is $20 Mil for 2012 and 2013.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/philadelphia-phillies_18.html

SirAlden said...

Rollins should not get a raise above his current level. He has been injured on the DL 3 times in the last 2 years, and his production is trending down.

If you give add that 8.5 Mil to the pot you have funds for Reyes, or Aramis plus Galvis.

GM-Carson said...

Sir Alden- Howard has been hurt the past 2 years and is trending downward. Why does he deserve a raise then and not J-Roll?

SirAlden said...

100 RBIs and 30 Home Runs for 6 Straight years.