Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Ibanez Can't Hit, Contreras Update, Howard's Extension a Year Later, Bench Problems, Werth a Howard & Dirty Hamels


Oh-4-Ever
Raul Ibanez is batting a cool .171 (14-82) with an OPS of .484. His last base knock came back on April 18th (a week and a half ago!). He's in the midst of an Oh-for-25 slide. Oh my goodness, that's horrible! $11.5M for this...get outta here.

Contreras Update
Jose Contreras was cruising along working the 9th inning in save situations brilliantly. Then something happened. That something was an effed-up elbow. Yesterday he was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain of the right elbow based upon MRI results. He's likely out for a month. Meanwhile we get the pleasure of suffering through Danys Baez, Mike Zagurski, and David Herndon in high pressure situations. Yeah!

Revisiting Howard's Extension
MLBTradeRumors had a nice post on the Ryan Howard extension a year later. Readers of this blog know I continually harp on this deal, even though it technically hasn't begun. Why? Because the Phillies outbid themselves on an aging 1st baseman that strikes out a ton, plays below average defense, and is declining offensively. Sure, he's a still a force in the lineup, but so are tons of other firstbasemen around the Majors. Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez were set to become free agents after the 2011 season along with Howard and all are better options than Howard. Yet, Howard is making $25M a season starting in 2012 and is not worth it. I am glad that Howard is currently on the Phillies, but I'm not sure I'll feel that way for the length of his extension. If I were GM, and dammit I should be, I would have waited until season's end to see what the market for firstbasemen looked like and gauged Howard's value before giving him an astronomical amount of cheddar.

Here's a post I did about this same matter back in December where I go more in depth. Go ahead, hate on me.

Bench Problems
Brian Schneider, who has been seeing more playing time lately, has 2 hits this season and is batting a pitiful .100. Bad. Michael Martinez continues to waste roster space and oxygen. I'd rather see Cliff Lee pinch hit that this munchkin. Seriously, dude is listed at 145 pounds. People take dumps that weigh that much. Let Martinez go and start auditioning bats from Lehigh Valley. First up Kevin Frandsen, or Jeff Larish, or Delwyn Young, or Ronnie Belliard, or the corpse of Ty Cobb. I could care less, just not Michael Martinez.

Werth with a Howard
Take a glance over at the Howard leader board for this season and you'll notice a familiar name at the bottom of the list (because it's alphabetical). Yep, Jayson Werth committed a Howard last night in a loss to the Mets. On the season, Werth is only hitting .220 and has already made 3 errors from RF.

Tonight
Tonight Dirty Sanchez Hamels stops the losing streak and shuts down the Diamondbacks. Like Flava Flav, I'm Hamels' hypeman- Yeah boy!

*I am proud to announce that the title to this post is the longest in WSBGMs storied history.

24 comments:

Preserve Jon said...

Ibanez = Jenkins c. March 31, 2009 (his release date)

ACSmitty79 said...

I thought Ibanez was a curious signing cus we knew this year and this lack of output was looming. Granted we'll likely be in this same position with Howard in 4 years.

I know it's still April and our starting pitiching staff is the beast but 100 wins? I dunno anymore. Too damn old.

ThingsareFunnerHere said...

Start Mayberry in place of Ibanez. It's time. With regular at bats he will start hitting and he is better on defense too.

GM-Carson said...

I'm hoping Dom Brown hits well on his rehab assignment, then gets recalled and hits well enough to start playing regularly so Ibanez and Francisco are used less, especially Ibanez.

Rising Sun said...

I'm going to disagree with everything you wrote about Howard but one part, that $25 million a year was too high. I think he's a far, far superior option to Prince "I never saw food I wouldn't eat" Fielder, who will eat himself out of the league in 3 years. I would also prefer him to Gonzalez, at least in the next 2-3 years, although the age gap there makes Gonzalez a better contract.

It's time to sit Raul down. Let Dom come take over right, put Benny in a platoon where it's not really a platoon, and he starts 80% of the time in left. Raul's not just not hitting, he's being blown away. He looks overmatched. Time to face the facts, we should have kept Pat if we were giving out three year deals for left.

GM-Carson said...

Prince Fielder has lost weight (albeit, it's still overweight), and is a better player/option than Howard. Fielder is 5 years younger and his OPS over the past 3 seasons is far better than Howard's.

Rising Sun said...

Prince Fielder is both shorter and fatter than Howard, who has gotten into better shape with each passing year. If you look at that objectively, he's going to age worse. As for stats, 2006 to now:

Howard- .313, 58, 149, 1.084;
.268, 47, 136, .976;
.251, 48, 146, .881;
.279, 45, 141, .931;
.276, 31, 108, .859;


Fielder- .271, 28, 81, .831;
.288, 50, 119, 1.013;
.276, 34, 102, .879;
.299, 46, 141, 1.014;
.261, 32, 83, .871;

Fielder's hit for a slightly higher average. Howard's been the best RBI guy in the game over the last 5 years. Most of their years are fairly comparable. I guess you give a little more weight to OPS than I do. I use it, but I'm more partial to the RBI's, which Howard has been more consistent on. I'm hesitant to look at it your way, and the example of why is 2008. Their OPS is really close, but I don't consider the quality of their seasons to have been close. Howard hit 14 more homers and 44 RBI's. I would say they are an offensive wash, overall, but Howard will age better, he's in much better shape and built better to last. He's also a defensive and base-running upgrade on Fielder. I'm glad we have Howard for five more years, albeit we over paid substantially. I would not have wanted us to invest in Fielder. I think he's a time bomb.

GM-Carson said...

First, I want to compliment you (Rising Sun) on debating this topic with me civily and using evidence.

OPS is a greater judge of a player's worth than RBI. RBI are a product of who is on base when you're up to bat, unless of course you hit a homerun, in which case you drive yourself in. Chase Utley, Victorino, and Rollins were a large part of Howard's success in the past. I agree RBI are the name of the game though, because runs are what equal wins, not OPS. So your argument is completely understood.

I am more on the Sabermetrics end of evaluating players overall value though.

Over the past 3 years and thus far in 2011 Fielder has been a better player in terms of WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

2008:
Howard- 2.8
Fielder- 2.1

2009:
Howard- 4.8
Fielder- 6.4

2010:
Howard- 2.2
Fielder 3.8

2011:
Howard- 0.5
Fielder- 1.2

Total:
Howard- 10.3
Fielder- 13.5

I like this stat because it takes into account for position played and defense.

GM-Carson said...

Multiple outlets are reporting that Roy Oswalt has left the Phillies for personal reasons, and there is no word on when he will return.

I wonder what is going on. I hope his family are okay.

Rising Sun said...

Carson,

Maybe Oswalt is looking for Michael Leighton? Ha. In all seriousness, this is a concern. I don't think he's hurt, his fastball was about the same velocity wise as in SD, but his command was gone. Makes me think he was distracted, and this isn't good.

I generally do use sabermetrics on the whole, particularly with free agency signings, and I think there's a solid argument about Howard not being worth the deal he got. On the whole, I think everyone agrees Pujols is worth whatever he gets, and the Gonzalez contract isn't so bad, when you consider his age, and his all around game. He got $22 million per, and frankly that's about what I would have wanted to go to with Howard at the top end. It's not really deniable that the league has made adjustments to him, and he's (probably) not going to hit 58 homers ever again. I think the use of sabermetrics, particularly when judging a player's long-term economic value, are usually spot on.

I usually like WAR, but this is another odd one. Fielder's 2010 looks extremely high for his overall line. 2009, well Fielder had an MVP level year. I think I give a lot of weight to their RBI numbers because most guys in baseball would kill to hit in either of these line-ups and ballparks. They both have a lot of opportunities. I agree on the whole that OPS is a better indicator in most cases. I'm a bit puzzled by Fielder's OPS seeming higher than I expect it to be, based on his other numbers.

As I said though, the main argument I have is that giving both five years, I'd prefer Howard. While he's a little older, he just seems more overall athletic. I watched Fielder run the bases a bit in Phillie last week. It's already really, really ugly, and troubling. Howard's not Victorino, but he can at least score on balls he should score on.

ripjgarcia said...

It appears he's worried about his family admidst a severe tornado outbreak in Mississippi. It's quite possible that telephone service, bother landline and cellular were out of action. You don't get special treatment as far as contact goes in a disaster situation like that even if you do pitch for a major league baseball team.

ripjgarcia said...

This may shed a little more light on the Oswalt situation.

Preserve Jon said...

Date on that link is 2010. Twisters did hit the same area yesterday though. So it is relevant.

Guess Rollins reads WSBGMs. He's a very productive 3 for 3 so far.

Polly still shooting for George Brett territory.

GM-Carson said...

Rollins with 3 rbi, 1 more than his season total entering the game.

I thought Oswalt was possibly attending the Royal Wedding on Friday in England.

furiousBall said...

More Gload and Mayberry in the line-up, less Raul

ripjgarcia said...

That's funny. Didn't even see the 2010.. Just April 26. You are right though. It is relevant as his mom's house was destroyed last year that probably sits in the back of his mind.

ripjgarcia said...

What's he gonna do that creepy face thing from that picture you posted way back on here behind the royal couple?

GM-Carson said...

Garcia- that was my idea exactly. Now I have to follow through with it.

Nice win today. Phils hit bad pitching like MLB players should. Cole pitched well too.

Dr. Steve said...

It's a shame when the highest praise for this team is "They played at a MLB-caliber level."

Anonymous said...

Dude--right on! The Howard deal was totally stupid. The most overpaid singles hitter in MLB--I'd be happy with a .279 average and 45 HRs and 130 RBIs like some season ago--and I'd like Keira Knightly under my Christmas tree wearing a holly leaf. But neither are gonna happen again.

Is it too late to tempt the Cards with Howard+Blanton for Pujols?

GM-Carson said...

Pujols in a Phillies uniform- never gonna happen, unless he's 45 and on his swan song season.

GM-Carson said...

From The Zo Zone:
“There has been a tremendous amount of tornado activity near Roy’s home in Mississippi resulting in several tragic deaths and significant devastation to the area. Because of this, Roy is concerned about his family’s well-being. He has chosen to take time to make sure there wasn’t significant damage to his home, but more importantly, to make certain that his wife and children are okay.

“It is almost a year to the day that his parents’ home was destroyed by a tornado which has heightened his concern about the current situation.

“We are hopeful that he will rejoin the team for his next start, but will take that day by day.”

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