Thursday, February 10, 2011

2011 Preview: Howard & Ruiz

Ryan Howard

2007 - .268 Avg, 47 HR, 136 RBI, .976 OPS
2008 - .251 Avg, 48 HR, 146 RBI, .881 OPS
2009 - .279 Avg, 45 HR, 141 RBI, .931 OPS
2010 - .276 Avg, 31 HR, 108 RBI, .859 OPS

2011 Salary – $20 million

Age - 31

If you believe the company line that Ryan Howard’s ankle injury was directly responsible for his power dip, then you shouldn’t worry about him 2011…unless you’re really a pessimist and think he won’t be healed by April.

I’m still sold on Ryan Howard. He had 198 homers and 572 RBI in the four years before 2010. He’s only 31 years old. He had an obvious reason for having a “down” year. Frankly, I don’t think there is a whole lot to say about Howard. Now, get back to me in about 2-3 years when those bad ankles are a little more brittle and the bat is a little slower… But until that time, expect more of the same. My prediction:

.274, 44 HR, 132 RBI, .915 OPS, 199 K

Carlos Ruiz

2007 - .259 Avg, 6 HR, 54 RBI, .735 OPS
2008 - .219 Avg, 4 HR, 31 RBI, .620 OPS
2009 - .255 Avg, 9 HR, 43 RBI, .780 OPS
2010 - .302 Avg, 8 HR, 53 RBI, .847 OPS

2011 Salary - $2.75 million

Age – 32

Back in October in a poll on this blog Ruiz got 95 out of 211 votes for team MVP. Only Roy Halladay got more votes, 98. That poll is a testament to how great of a season Ruiz had and to the fans of this team, specifically readers of this blog, who understand the importance of a good defensive catcher and appreciate the value of a good defensive catcher who can hit .300 from the 8-hole.

Unfortunately, I have some bad news you guys. Carlos Ruiz won’t hit .300 this season. He probably won’t hit .280. Ruiz is lifetime .275 hitter in the minor leagues and .246 in the majors without including 2010. Ruiz benefitted from .335 BABIP last season, just like he suffered from a .237 BABIP two season ago when he hit .219. Expect a significant reduction in BABIP in 2011 and conversely a return to previous levels of offensive production.

Than being said, a Carlos Ruiz batting around .250 and driving in 45 runs from the bottom of the order is still greatly valuable to the Phillies because he is so good behind the plate. My prediction for 2011:

.264, 8 HR, 45 RBI, .782 OPS, 1 happy pitching staff


GM-Carson said...

The Phils and Rangers briefly discussed Michael Young according to sources. Basically just "tire kicking". Can't see where he would fit on this team. I guess as a super utility player, rotating around the infield giving Utley, Rollins, and Polanco days off. Thing is Young is owed $48M over the next 3 seasons. NO THANKS!!!

GM-Carson said...

My predictions:

Howard- about the same as Corey. He's a slugger and that didn't change because of one down season.

Ruiz- .270, 60 RBI. I think he'll stay healthy and avoid the DL, which will lead to more RBI. Plus Manuel might bat him higher in the order sometimes to protect Dom Brown when he plays.

SirAlden said...


SirAlden said...

I think each of the Starters should "TIP" Carlos Ruiz 200K for last year,