Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Lineup Construction

Much is being made out of Jayson Werth's absence from the lineup/outfield next season and the debate rages on as to who should fill the void (Brown or Francisco). Taking a look at each players' stats leads me to believe that a new lineup configuration is in order (pun intended) depending on the pitching hand of the starter.

Below you will see a proposed lineup against righties and lefties. Each is unconventional in that Howard isn't batting 4th in either of them. Against RHP Howard absolutely crushes the ball, so getting him as many at bats early in the game against them is important, hence his bump to the 3-hole, which moves Utley to 2, and Polanco down in the order. Brown is batting 7th because of being a rookie. He could easily be flipped with Rollins later in the season after he builds experience and confidence. However, this does put 3 lefties in a row (Utley, Howard, Ibanez), making them highly susceptible to a LOOGY late in the game. Against LHP Howard is horrible, so he is pushed down in the order to 5, with Fracisco sitting in the cleanup spot. This also is favorable for late game matchups by splitting up Utley, Howard, and Ibanez. Obviously Manuel won't employ either of these lineups, but I think he should.

*Career splits listed, and on base % given to show Vic is better suited for leadoff over J-Roll.

Vs. Righties:
1. Shane Victorino/CF- .275/.743 (.337 OB%)
2. Chase Utley/2B- .298/.894
3. Ryan Howard/1B- .303/1.038
4. Raul Ibanez/LF- .289/.847
5. Jimmy Rollins/SS- .269/.757 (.326 OB%)
6. Placido Polanco/3B- .299/.740
7. Domonic Brown/RF- ?
8. Carlos Ruiz/C- .260/.735

Vs. Lefties:
1. Shane Victorino/CF- .295/.853 (.362 OB%)
2. Placido Polanco/2B- .313/.805
3. Chase Utley/2B- .283/.894
4. Ben Francisco/RF- .267/.806
5. Ryan Howard/1B- .232/.766
6. Jimmy Rollins/SS- .282/.782 (.336 OB%)
7. Raul Ibanez/LF- .269/.757
8. Carlos Ruiz/C- .262/.792

What would your lineup look like?

7 comments:

Mike D. said...

stay off the drugs, son!

ripjgarcia said...

My lineup.

Vic
Polanco
Chooch
Utley
Howard
Rollins
Ibanez
Francisco

That's right. I batted Chooch 3rd. crazy huh.

GM-Carson said...

Garcia- gotta believe that Chooch's flaws would be exposed in the 3-hole. He's protected down in the order batting 8th.

ripjgarcia said...

Define his flaws for me. I'm not saying he doesn't have them, but I would like to know what you consider them to be.

Tim. said...

Vs. Righties:
Vic
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Rollins
Ibanez
Brown
Chooch

Vs. Lefties:
Vic
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Rollins
Francisco
Ibanez
Chooch

Vic is a stud when leading off, and this combo of the first four hitters worked well as far as I could tell last year, barring injuries. I think Jimmy backing up the combo of Utley and Howard offsets whether or not the pitcher is a lefty or a righty, and gives speed to the second half of the lineup. Batting Ibanez 6th or 7th adds a tremendous upside to the end of the lineup, while diminishing responsibility should he under-perform as we've seen him do in the past. Brown and Francisco are a toss-up, but each has a great upside in the second half of the lineup as both have the potential to be solid players at the plate, but like Ibanez the bottom half of the order has less responsibility, thus taking the brunt of the pressure off of Francisco, a two-year backup in Philly, and Brown, a rookie. Chooch is too valuable in the eight spot for what he can do at the plate, but I feel at the top of the order the difference in pitching style could affect the groove he settled into last year.

GM-Carson said...

Garcia- about Chooch- He'd hit into a ton of double plays, his on base % would go down because pitchers wouldn't be pitching around him to get to the pitcher's spot in the lineup anymore. He's a below average runner.

ripjgarcia said...

Only part of your statement that lacks merit is the GIDP stat. Look at the league leaders for GIDPs over the last 20 years. You'd be amazed at some of the people on that list.