Wednesday, May 12, 2010

The Luck Factor - Pitchers

We here at WSBGMs are notorious baseball statheads. We really enjoy looking at and comparing UZR, BABIP, etc. We absolutely LOVE taking these stats and extrapolating grand theories and meanings with complete disregard to the formulation, limitations and value of each stat. Mmmmmm, I get goose bumps just thinking about proving Adam Eaton was a good pitcher via his strikeout to triples ratio.

So naturally, we are taking the next logical step in our stat evolution, from appreciation and misuse to creation. That’s right, welcome to a new era in baseball stats – WSBGMametrics.
The first stat I’d like to share with you is one that we’ve used on this blog before: the Luck Factor.

Some will argue that giving up four homeruns in one game is bad luck because HR:FB ratios measured over an extended period of time will be relatively consistent for all pitchers. At WSBGMs, we say bullshit. If you want talk about luck you have to prove it and after strenuous, pencil-breaking research, we’ve come up with a way to really tell how lucky a pitcher is.

K – The only constant in this equation, ‘K’ equals the average length of a “lucky” rabbit’s foot, status post amputation and coloration with fluorescent dye.

S – The length of visible sock/stirrup. Any question why Jamie Moyer can pitch into his 60’s? Well, this equation and variable answers that. If you can see the Liberty Bell, you can get people out no matter how fast you throw.

B – The Beard Factor. This is a very complicated variable with an almost unlimited possible value. Each specific facial hair style – handlebar mustache, soul patch, fu Manchu, etc. – has its own effect on the Luck Factor. The equation for calculating the Beard Factor is more complex than the Luck Factor and is too much for the puny minds that read this site. But I will let you in on one part – if you copy the Beard Factor of a teammate (ie Kendrick going for the Halladay beard) it can result in negative Luck. Get your own style Kyle or risk a poor Luck Factor!

G – The color of the pitchers glove. One for a standard brown leather or black mitt, but 2 if your glove matches your uniform color. This is a big variable in the equation and pretty much the only reason Jose Mesa had as many saves as he did with the Phils. Just imagine if Jose would have traded in his maroon or blue glove for a bland brown…perish the thought.

R – The number of times the pitcher touches the rosin bag per inning pitched. The alternative name for this is the Turk Wendell Factor.

Sri Lanka – The temperature in Sri Jayawardenapura Kotte, Sri Lanka at the time of the first pitch. This took a lot of time cross-referencing ERAs with capital city temperatures but we finally got it.

So there you have it. The next time Cole Hamels gives up a bunch of dingers or Brad Lidge blows a save, instead of saying, “Bad luck for him tonight” you can say “Must’ve been a hot day in Sri Lanka” and the real statheads will know what you mean.

19 comments:

GM-Carson said...

Phils all over the news yesterday/today.

1. Bullpen catcher Mick Billmeyer and Shane Victorino accused of stealing signs. Billmeyer was using binoculars on Monday and then Vic was on the bullpen phone.

2. Bunch of people pissed about Phils getting 3 more "home" games this season because of this G20 Summit going on in Toronto. Shut up Mets fans!

3. Double Header today, but the weather in Denver still looks dicey. Halladay Game 1, Moyer Game 2.

Preserve Jon said...

Stop the merry-go-round. I want to get off. My head hurts afte reading that explanation.

Where did you read about the sign stealing accusation? The Rockies are such little bitches. Ever since Manny Corpas (or Franklin Morales?) poured gatorade on his jersey in 2007, I've hated the freaking Rockies. This is the thanks we get for saving the asses of their grounds crew years back.

GM-Carson said...

I heard it on MLB radio on XM this morning. Apparently the MLB issued a formal warning to the Phils.

Corey said...

WSBGMametrics is hard. but like a 12th grader taking pre-algebra, there's plenty of help out there for those of you who can't keep up.

Re: sign stealing -
1) i could care less.
2) if you don't want your signs stolen, get better at giving signs. the freaking third base coach stands out there all day. you don't need anything special to watch him yet no one cares b/c they flash those bitches mach 90.

Re: more home games - if the phils win the division by a game or two and they win 2 or 3 in the "home" series, i may be pissed if i am the second placed team. otherwise, STFU.

GM-Carson said...

J-Roll might be activated from the DL on Monday May 17th. This would be a welcomed return.

Preserve Jon said...

Hallelujah! Winning 8 out of the last 10 isn't bad, but J-Roll makes this team better.

And from a spectator standpoint he makes it look like everyone is having fun out there. This is something Joe Posnanski wrote about Griffey. I think the same applies to J-Roll.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/joe_posnanski/05/11/ken.griffey/index.html?eref=sihp

GM-Carson said...

The weather looks horrible in Denver again today. They'll be lucky to get through the games. I hope they don't start game 1 then have it go into delay and totally screw Halladay out of a longer outing.

GM-Carson said...

If Juan Castro is unable to play for so long, why the hell hasn't he been DL'd?

Preserve Jon said...

Charlie's response to Rockies' accusation off sign stealing - "Keep crying."


The man is a saint.

GM-Carson said...

Every team steals signs, and if they don't then they're stupid. It's part of the game. Always has been, and always will be.

What the hell is up with Halladay today?

GM-Carson said...

Crap, Chooch came up lame and had to be taken out of the game. If he's hurt who the hell do the Phils call up? DUI Dane Sardania?

Bob D said...

Luck factor may help Valdez today - as the announcers put it if there are 2 outs then no matter how many runners are on base then its not possible to ground into a doubleplay. He may just break his 5 game streak of GIDPs - but my money is on him to GIDPs in the second game to extend his streak of days at least so he may gain a footnote to his name in the book of records.

ripjgarcia said...

Not that I wish anything to happen to Hoover, but I would so love to see Werth behind the plate. Just kidding.

GM-Carson said...

I'm not sure but I think I remember someone talking about how Ibanez used to catch back in the day and could serve as an emergency catcher. I'll look into that.

GM-Carson said...

Indeed Raul was a catcher early in his minor league career and once caught 4 innings for Seattle in 1999.

GM-Carson said...

Bad defense dicking Halladay. Stonehands Howard with an E then Werth horribly misplays a ball. Phils look bad today.

ripjgarcia said...

I was just going off the fact that Werth had been the e-catcher since he came here. Did not know about Ibanez's talents.

ripjgarcia said...

Ah there it is. Werth was drafted as a catcher in 1997 by the Oriole, by none other than Pat Gillick.

GM-Carson said...

Well, son of a bitch!