Wednesday, March 24, 2010

2010 Phillies Predictions

1B/Ryan Howard- .273, 105 r, 46 hr, 139 rbi, 197 k, 4 Howards.
2B/Chase Utley- .295, 107 r, 30 hr, 105 rbi, 16 sb, finally wins a GG.
SS/Jimmy Rollins- .272, 128 r, 15 hr, 79 rbi, 42 sb, defends GG.
3B/Placido Polanco- .304, 96 r, 12 hr, 70 rbi.
LF/Raul Ibanez- .268, 72 r, 18 hr, 81 rbi.
CF/Shane Victorino- .290, 88 r, 15 hr, 79 rbi, 22 sb, defends GG.
RF/Jayson Werth- .275, 103 r, 31 hr, 101 rbi, 16 sb.
C/Carlos Ruiz- .267, 50 r, 10 hr, 52 rbi.
*I expect Ben Francisco to see regular time, with at least 1 start a week in place of Ibanez and giving Vic and Werth a breather sometimes too.

1. Roy Halladay- 22 w, 2.63/1.07, Cy Young
2. Cole Hamels- 17 w, 3.13/1.11
3. Joe Blanton- 13 w, 4.12/1.31
4. JA Happ- 14 w, 3.96/1.29
5. Jamie Moyer- 6 w, 5.33/1.48 (out of the rotation by some point in June, bullpen remainder of the season).
6. Kyle Kendrick- 7 w, 4.59/1.40 (takes Moyer's spot in rotation sometime in June).
Closer/Brad Lidge- 32 sv, 5 blown saves, 4.37/1.35
Setup/Ryan Madson- 9 sv, 2.98/1.22

Record: 98-64, 3-peat for National League pennant.


Andrew said...

very reasonable predictions. why the decline in SBs from Vic and Werth, though? I agree with Utley finally winning GG, Rollins solid season, Halladay for Cy Young, Hamels bounce-back, and Happ, Moyer and KK sound very reasonable. Fairly high WHIP for KK and Moyer though. I predict Lidge will be in the 3s for ERA but with an elevated WHIP (leadoff walks!!)

GM-Carson said...

Vic is batting 7th, thus less running opportunities. I feel Ibanez will slump this year and Charlie will be less likely to give Werth green-light with risk of running themselves out of an inning (ex- Werth caught stealing, Ibanez makes out).

Justin said...

I think Victorino moving from 2nd to 7th allows for more running opportunities. With Ruiz's knack for ground balls, I'd think they'd like to stay out of double plays. Also, with Victorino's speed, it allows Ruiz the ability to see more fastballs, which could do huge things for him.

GM-Carson said...

Corey and I discussed this about Vic in the 7-hole. We both agree probably less running opportunities, but I see the revese side of the arguement too. Personally, I'd let him run if he's swiping bags at an 80%+ rate.

Andrew said...

Also, potentially the final year with Davey Lopes. Might as well run as much as possible while he's manning 1st base

Justin said...

You don't feel like he saw less running opportunities out of the 2-hole?

In 1649 PAs, He stole a base every 22 times while in the 2 hole.

In the 6 hole, every 20.8

In the 7th or 8th hole, every 19.3.

Of course, small sample sizes for the 6th/7th/8th holes, but I feel as if Victorino had less opportunities because of Utley/Howard behind him and they didn't need him to steal as much with the power behind him.

Andrew said...

Good point. I think Vic steals more if he's in the lineup AFTER the power hitters. Unless he's leadoff, his goal is simply to get on base leading up to Utley and Howard. Sure, he wants to avoid the double play, but I think the chance those two get a hit, strikeout, or pop up is much greater than GIDP, thus Vic stays put and waits to be hit home. I would say a full season at the bottom of the lineup still amounts to 30+ SBs. At least here's hoping, since he's currently on my fantasy roster!

Dr. Steve said...

Victorino really should be hitting 6th. Werth at 5. Ibanez at 7.

Raul sucks.

GM-Carson said...

Vic may end up batting 6th if Ibanez struggles.