Monday, December 14, 2009

What the Halladay is going on?

In July of 2009 Ruben Amaro Jr. landed the reigning American League Cy Young- Cliff Lee. Clifton Phifer Lee pitched brilliantly during his tenure as a Phillie, especially in the postseason, and I look(ed) forward to watching him dominate for a full season in Phillies pinstripes in '10. That may not be happening though, as my favorite non-Phillie, Roy Halladay, is in town with agent and set to take a physical as means of becoming a Phillie. Amaro wants to negotiate a contract extension with Doc prior to the deal, to ensure he's getting optimal value for the package he is sending in the other direction. Who is in the package, and what direction is the package going is yet to be determined. Reports have the Phils and Blue Jays hooked up with a mystery third team. It's believed Lee would be sent to said third team for a package of prospects the would then be used to lure Halladay away from Toronto. Confused? Me too. Skeptical? Me too. Right now we're in the wait-and-see mode, but it sure does seem that Rube is cooking up something big.

I love me some Cliff Lee, but he's young and wants to test the free agent market next offseason and will command top dollar. Halladay will command big money too, but I think he desires to be on a team that is a near lock for the playoffs, as are the Phils, and will sign an extension to do so. So, if the trade is essentially 1 year of Lee's services for multiple year's of Halladays, then I'm all for it. Rube is a crafty S.O.B., so I'm excited to see how this pans out. I've got my credit card ready to purchase the jersey.

Update:
Cliff Lee to the Mariners, Seattle prospects to Blue Jays, Roy Halladay to us. To quote Andrew from the previous comment thread, "Apparently a done deal. Wow. I'm kind of speechless."

24 comments:

BenJah said...

i absolutely fucking hate this

GM-Carson said...

BenJah- haven't heard from you in months (miss ya buddy), and this is what you decide to type? Why do you hate this?

It was going to be tough to lock Lee up beyond next season. Halladay is the better pitcher too.

GM-Carson said...

Sounds like Michael Taylor will be part of the package heading to Toronto and that the deal is contingent on Halladay signing an extension (makes sense, and I'd hope so!).

Aaron said...

YIKES! I'M not sure if I like this yet????

gotta see who all the names are first.

If trading Michael Taylor and Lee means signing Halladay and Jayson Werth long term...than I think it's a good trade.
It seems like Lee was gonna hit the open market next year and the Phils would get outbid for him.

SirAlden said...

Toronto gets:
Phillippe Aumont Top Pitching Prospect from the Mariners.

Travis d'Arnaud Top Phillies Catching Prospect.

Micheal Taylor 2nd Phillies Outfield Prospect.

Seattle gets: Cliff Lee

Phillie gets Roy Halladay
and 2 Seattle Prospects.

SirAlden said...

Fluid at the moment but the latest guess.

What the Phillies are getting is 3-5 years of Halladay at a set price slightly under market, and 2 lesser but not dead prospects, for 1 year of Lee, and 2 Top Prospects.

Interesting.

njh723 said...

i hated this at first, but i really agree with the move if lee was gonna walk after this year. i know ill love halladay, but im really gonna miss lee. just such a perfect player for this city.

GM-Carson said...

Halladay is better than Lee. Lee is awesome, but Halladay is awesomer. I'm reading an extension in the neighborhood of 3 yr $60M for Doc. That's a good deal for a pitcher of his ilk. Plus the Phils get 2 prospects (not sure who yet)...great deal!

SirAlden said...

Sources tell CSNPhilly.com that top Phillies pitching propsect Kyle Drabek and other top propsects are in the deal. Domonic Brown stays.

UH OH!

Andrew said...

thanks for the shoutout. still shocked though. scared by latest rumors including drabek, happ, blanton, etc....

SirAlden said...

A source identified those prospects as Drabek, outfielder Michael Taylor and catcher Travis D’Arnaud. The Blue Jays would also get a prospect from Seattle, possibly Canadian pitcher Phillippe Aumont. The Phillies could also end up with a prospect from Seattle.

Double UH OH....

GM-Carson said...

No way we have to give up 3 top prospects and Lee for Halladay. If that's the case- Boo Amaro!

Aaron said...

This deal changes every minute.

Now stark is saying the Phils would get Halladay and 6 million from the jays. They would also get 2 prospects from the Mariners..............BUT they would be giving up LEE, DRABEK or Happ, TAYLOR and Travis D.

I sure hope this isn't true. If the Phils were going to give up Drabek and Taylor they may as well just traded them last year for Hallday!!!!

We would basically now have traded away, Knapp, Drabek, Marson, Donald, Taylor and Travis D for Hallday plus some prospects from the mariners???

Rube please please please don't F this up. If Drabek or Happ go along with Lee this trade sucks!!!!!!

SirAlden said...

Seemingly two parts to this:

Halladay and 6 Millions Dollars for
Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnaud.

Hmmm... Would you have done that last summer? Yes. Would have been better to let Toronto keep the 6 million, and keep D'Arnaud.

Why do we need the 6 Million.
Didn't the fans fill the Cit last year?

The Lee Part still unfolding is,
more problematical, and should be
judged as a separate Trade.

SirAlden said...

And then, there was the World Baseball Classic, when Aumont pitched out of a bases-loaded, none-out jam for Team Canada against David Wright, Kevin Youkilis and Curtis Granderson of Team USA. All of a sudden, there was a sense, both from Aumont and the Mariners, that he might be ready for the majors more quickly than envisioned.

SirAlden said...

Tyson Gillies | CF | A+ | 21 | .341/.430/.486 | 498 AB | 17 2B | 14 3B | 9 HR | .145 ISO | 44/19 SB/CS | 81:61 K: BB | .395 BABIP
Gillies can scoot. He has been recorded to make it from home to first-base in 3.8 seconds (scores an 80 on a 20 – 80 scale; and he is the fastest player in Seattle’s minor league system). With this speed, his outfield defense is beyond stellar with a plus-arm to boot – actually the best arm for all of Seattle’s prospects. Most Mariner scouts believe he has a good “feel” for the strike zone, and this year he finally put it all together. Not exceptionally powerful, he was able to push a few over the fence. However, 61% of his contacted balls were on the ground. He still needs to improve his stealing percent. Expect to see Gillies in Double-A in 2010 and possibly in the majors if any major injuries occur because of his stellar defense.

SirAlden said...

Phillippe Aumont | RP (SP) | Seattle Mariners | DOB: 1/7/89 | 6-7 | 220 lbs | Bats/Throws: Left/Right | SEA #3 ranked prospect according to Baseball America
The Cube: Oddly, Phillippe does not have any Cube ratings, see for yourself.

Maybe the Cube doesn’t like Canadians; those ethnocentric infidels. No, but seriously, Aumont is Canadian. Why you ask is this important? First, when hockey is your dominate sport nine months of the year, baseball tends to be overlooked (especially in Quebec – his home province – or more specifically Hull, Quebec, Canada). This directly lead to his relative lack of baseball experience and development as there was no high school baseball team. Secondly, he had to travel great distances for scouts to even see him throw a ball by playing on traveling teams. Somewhere along his playing after traveling long hours a few Mariner scouts said, “WOW!” and he was drafted in the first round with the eleventh pick in 2007.

Yes, the scouts said more than that. Like how he has a 90 to 95 mph fastball that has heavy sink and slight horizontal movement; a curve with a tight bite; and height that is ideal for a pitcher. Throwing from a three-quarters arm slot, his ball has a lot of deception. However, he hasn’t always stayed on top of the ball resulting in poor command (career 3.5 BB/9). Also, some have noted that his straight and stiff left leg during his landing will cause arm and upper body stress. Time proved them right, last year he was shut down for some elbow soreness which eventually lead him to becoming a closer in 2008, and consequently this year too. Actually, he is being primed to be a closer because he is having difficulty developing a third pitch. One site I read compared his potential (right after the draft) to players like this:

Low potential – Aaron Cook, Jason Marquis
Mid potential – Derek Lowe, Brad Penny
High potential – Kevin Brown, Chris Carpenter

Well before I say more, here are his numbers:

08 (A) 8.1 K/9 | 3.1 BB/9 | 8/15 GS/G | 55 2/3 IP | .6 HR/9 | 2.75 ERA | 1.168 WHIP | 2 SV | .282 BABIP | 3.58 FIP
09 (totals) 10.4 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 0/44 GS/G) 51 IP | .7 HR/9 | 3.88 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 16 SV
09 (A+) 9.4 K/9 | 3.2 BB/9 | 29 G | 33 1/3 IP | .8 HR/9 | 3.24 ERA | 1.08 WHIP | 12 SV | .263 BABIP | 3.53 FIP
09 (AA) 12.2 K/9 | 5.6 BB/9 | 15 G | 17 2/3 IP | .5 HR/9 | 5.09 ERA | 1.81 WHIP | 4 SV | .436 BABIP | 3.6 FIP

For his career, he averages 9.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9, albeit in only 106 2/3 innings. To make a conclusion right now would be difficult from such a small sample size. The control still seems to be a huge issue, but the talent is definitely there. Reminds me of Carlos Marmol, almost identical actually (Marmol’s career averages: 9.2 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 473 2/3 IP); although Marmol was a starter until the majors. At only 20, Aumont has plenty of time to develop into a productive, or adequate, major league pitcher whether or not the control comes. However, he may be deemed a bust because he was drafted to be a starting pitcher who could eat innings and be a mainstay in the top of the rotation. The way the Mariners are treating him would be to groom him as a late innings bullpen guy. Not a great way to spend a top draft pick. Although, if, or when, he makes the majors that view may be different as many draft picks (including top picks) never produce at the major league level.

With all that said, I would optimistically say he would be a late season call up in 2010, eventually battling for a roster spot in 2011 and getting called up midway through the summer. My pessimism ventures to say he won’t have a legit roster battle until 2012. A good comparison if he stays a reliever would be Marmol. I am sure there are other comparisons, but he would be the biggest name I can think of that everyone would recognize.

ripjgarcia said...

marmoset..

thats my word of the day behind awesomer.. which was a great one..and my other word is not best in print.

AND

I hate Ken Rosenthal.. if I find out he's behind this.. well I dunno

Ask yourselves this though..

Do you want a team player on your squad.. OR a guy who has absolutely no direction at all.. Yes! great pitcher.. Direction? No! Lee is a professional... Listen to the guy.. watch him pitch... Halliday has been a great pitcher? But everything I heard out of him last year (him, not his agent) leads me to believe that this guy is not a team guy and wants nothing less than a payday.

ripjgarcia said...

ok.. so now I'm a little confused.. are these two separate deals? From what I have read, Seattle sends nothing to Toronto?

GM-Carson said...

From The Zo Zone:
"Here are two things that Phillies fans should like: Halladay is a stud, a step above almost everybody in baseball. Lee pitched great in the postseason, but Halladay's body of work pitching in the American League East is second to none. Halladay also will be in a Phillies uniform beyond 2010. The Phillies clearly felt Lee would not have been. So you guarantee yourself a stud pitcher atop your rotation for a few more years, rather than losing Lee after the season.

But they also could have kept both. If the Mariners are not sending prospects to Toronto, it means these are two totally separate trades. Essentially, the Phillies did not have to trade Lee to acquire Halladay. Of course, there is the issue of payroll. Lee is making $9 million next season, so this provides the Phillies salary relief. But Joe Blanton could make $7 million or more next season. I can't imagine the Phillies are trading Lee over Blanton to save themselves roughly $2 million. No, it looks to me like the Phillies want Seattle's prospects to restock their farm system. But is it worth it? Having Halladay and Lee in the same rotation is no guarantee of a World Series championship, but it sure puts them in excellent position to try.

So go for broke next year knowing the farm system is depleted, or upgrade the rotation with Halladay and hope the prospects from the Mariners soften the blow of losing Drabek, Taylor and d'Arnaud down the road?"

I understand the move and think it strengthens the Phils for 2010 and also beyond.

Andrew said...

still skeptical

Dr. Steve said...

I understand we may be getting two prospects in the deal (I have no idea why).

But please keep Drabek. Our minor leagues are going to be so depleted if we don't do something soon I think. But I guess, our majors are pretty stocked, there's no real rush. Another all pitching draft this year.

GM-Carson said...

I read the Phils are getting 3 prospects from the M's, all about 20 years old. Aumont (P) and Gillies (OF) have very good minor league #'s thus far, the other guy Juan Ramirez...not so much. I'd love to keep Lee and plug Halladay into the rotation too, but like Corey posted yesterday, the Phils don't have unlimited resources to spend and need to think long-term and not be short-sighted. Trading 1 year of Lee for multiple years of Halladay makes sense. It stings to lose all those prospects, but they're just that...prospects, nothing guaranteed. At least Rube is trying to replenish the sytem with the Lee trade to soften the blow of losing Taylor, Drabek, and D'Araund.

Andrew said...

update from MLBTR:

* The Phillies get Roy Halladay, who will take a physical today, according to Ed Price, and $6MM from the Jays. They also get Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and Juan Ramirez from the M's. (Ryan Divish of the Tacoma News Tribune confirmed that Ramirez is headed to Philly.)
* Halladay will also agree to a three-year extension that will pay him about $20MM annually through 2013, according to Stark. The extension won't affect his 2010 salary ($15.75MM) and will include a vesting option.
* The Mariners get Cliff Lee from the Phils and they could be getting more.
* The Blue Jays get pitcher Kyle Drabek, outfielder Michael Taylor and (probably) catcher Travis D'Arnaud from the Phils.