Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Halladay Deal...We Think.

Phillies:
Roy Halladay
Phillippe Aumont
Juan Ramirez
Tyson Gillies
$6 million

Mariners:
Cliff Lee

Blue Jays:
Kyle Drabek
Michael Taylor
Travis D’Arnaud

What the Phils gave up:
#1 pitcher who they weren’t likely to sign long term.
Three of their top 4 prospects.

What the Phils get:
#1 pitcher for the next four years.
Three top 10 Mariners prospects that are substantially less “prospectical” than those heading the other direction.

My feeling as of 9:42:
I understand that signing Lee was unlikely and locking up a true number one starter is great. But I think they could have done better. I’m not sold on the Mariners prospects. I would rather have seen the Phils get one high value prospect from the Mariners (ie Michael Saunders) instead of three relatively lower value minor leaguers.

Also, I agree with the many people who have wondered why the Phils just didn’t keep Lee, take the $9 million dollar hit this season, be the overwhelming favorite to win the World Series, and then take the draft picks when he leaves in free agency after the season. Those picks might be as valuable as the prospects from Seattle and could you imagine a Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Happ rotation? Blanton could have been unloaded to offset Lee’s salary, too. Oh, that would have been great.

More on this as it unfolds.

28 comments:

GM-Carson said...

I have mixed feelings about this deal. I love Doc Halladay, have for a long time. He's a true ace, grinds through games, and has dominated MLB's toughest division for years (AL East).

I'm not upset Cliff Lee is being traded, I'm upset (like Corey stated) that the prospects coming in return are rather lackluster.

Bottom line, the Phils are set for the next few years with one of the best pitchers in baseball (I rank him #2 behind Lincecum).

Dr. Steve said...

The good news is Phillipe is a lot closer to starting than Drabek, and is awesome.

Travis D'Arnaud is rated as out best catcher, but the guy behind him is supposed to be the better of the two long-term. And, we have Ruiz. And isn't Taylor supposed to be the weaker of our two outfielders?

Who knows what the deal will actually be.

GM-Carson said...

Dominic Brown is supposed to be better than Taylor, but Taylor is close to MLB ready now. Pretty soon Ibanez (old), Vic, and Werth (free agents and expensive) are going to have to be replaced.

Dr. Steve said...

yeah. Next season. Vic and Werth aren't going anywhere.

Andrew said...

Taylor being flipped from the Jays to the A's

vendor71 said...

OK so you keep Lee and get two picks at the end of the year. Main problem with that is the fact that if the team that picks up Lee picks in the first 15 spots, you get their 2nd rounder. Big, big difference from getting a top-flight firsty.

I kinda like this deal, as presently constructed. Get Doc for 3-5 years, a monster-sized RHP that chucks 93mph bowling balls, and a guy that could be your CF/LO hitter of the future. Maybe Aumont and Gillies look like a stretch now, but I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that at least one of them won't pan out. If they both work you now have 2/3 of your starting outfield (w/Dom Brown) in 2012 which is about the same time Raul gets real old and Werth and Vic's contracts go through the roof, and you have either a capable 2 or 3 starter or a young closer.

Corey said...

can the phils send ramirez and gillies and somebody else to oakland and get michael taylor back?

Dr. Steve said...

Dude there's no reason to not pay Vic his money. He's essential to this team. Werth is great, you can't lose him without a trade or having him leave as a top rated free agent for compensation.

GM-Carson said...

If the Phils get Halladay on a 3 yera $60M extension, that seems very reasonable. He'd be 34 following this season, but given his status as one of baseball's top pitchers I'd think he'd demand more years and far more annually on the open market.

vendor71 said...

Agreed. Shane and Jayson have as much to do with the success of this team the last three years as anyone, but there comes a time when everyone needs to be replaced, whether it's because of age, injury, contract or whatever.
That's why the FO made this deal. They had to give away some good kids to get Doc, and now they have to replace those kids so that they can re-load a few years down the line. If they didn't need the fresh blood developing down in the minors, they would have probably dumped salary somewhere else and kept Lee for the year. It would've been something to see, but the truth is moving Lee is probably the best way to keep the team on top for as long as possible.

Reverend Paul Revere said...

All I know is I miss Clifford Phifer Lee already.

njh723 said...

i hate losing our prospects because i was super-excited to see how drabek and taylor panned out. i think we should have kept lee and just been the favorite for a year. and i dont even want to think about werth or vic playing somewhere else

Andrew said...

MLB.com's Todd Zolecki says Fernando Rodney and John Smoltz are "believed to be" top targets for the Phillies. -MLBTR

Aaron said...

Good parts:
Multiple years of Halladay instead of 1 of Lee.
Halladay's extension $ sound reasonable

Bad Parts:
I think Taylor and Drabek are going to be studs. I know "experts" project him as a number 2 or 3 pitcher but I don't go by experts I go by Stats. And Drabek's stats are damn good.
Also I am not big on "speedy" minor league outfielders. I much prefer Taylor to Brown.

I keep seeing articles saying that the big winners in all of this are the Marineers. I think they actually will turn out to be the biggest losers. They trade away 3 prospects for 1 year of Cliff Lee. The Mariners are not going to win the world series this year because they have cliff lee. Next year he will sign with the Yankees and they M's will get a very late first round pick.

So basically by next year the M's will be left with 3 less prospects, no cliff lee and no world series title.

Dr. Steve said...

Rodney is not a bad choice. Smoltz could help every pitcher on the staff out coaching-wise.

SirAlden said...

I would have kept LEE.

Guess we are all in agreement.

For Lee, we got the Mariner's Top
2 Pitching Prospects, and a "Rocky" Type in Gillies - who is legally deaf.

He could be the 4th outfielder or even replace Victorino one day. He has 80/80 Speed, 80/80 Arm, and 80/80 defense. Hits for High Average and can take a walk.

Corey said...

the more i mull over this trade the less i like it. they just didn't get enough for cliff lee.

just read zolecki talk about needing to get rid of lee's salary. bullshit. get rid of joe blanton's salary instead. shit.

/plowing through the stages of grief two at a time...

SirAlden said...

It will be interesting to look back from Spring Training 2012, and ask who would you rather have:

Aumont
Ramirez
Gillies
Francisco

Carasco
Knapp
Donald

With a Division Title and World Series Appearance for Marson (being the cost of 1/2 year of Lee).

miladawley said...

cool blog..................................................

GM-Carson said...

Blanton and Lee both become free agents after 2010, and through the miracle of arbitration Blanton will make nearly as much as Lee will this season. Trading Blanton for relief, or mid-level prospects would have made more sense to clear payroll. Gillies and Aumont look decent, but they're young and far off, who the hell really knows what they'll do.

Dr. Steve said...

I don't understand this trade. It seems to me like... uh....

Lee and Halladay don't cancel each other out, Halladay needs more to land him than just Lee. So... you throw in a decent prospect and the deal is done. But instead... you swap prospects back and forth - except the prospects you put in are worth a lot more than what you get out.

Ruben makes very odd deals. I need to see more this offseason or I'm not impressed.

Bob D said...

Taylor has good potential and is closer to the majors. Brown is right behind him and could be major league ready by years end. Which is key since Werth (dread the thought) could be in his last year possibly with the Phils who may need to get a bit cheaper at one position for 2011. Aumont will likely replace Blanton next year which will help payroll too. I'd rather keep Brown over Taylor but both are potentially going to be really good.

Don't forget we still have Francisco even though he is not a starting OF'er he is a good key role player.

D'Arnaud is a good catcher but the Phils have had a lot of good catching prospects thru the years and continue to do so even now. The guy behind him is Sebastian Valle who is likely to be a plus ML catcher and hitter. So losing him (D'Arnaud) is not a hard hit for them. Tuffy Gosewich is one who should be OK but not spectacular, is likely to be in AAA and possibly groomed for backup catcher in the future.

Wow, losing Drabek actually hurts here as I see him as a better pitcher than Aumont (even though I know very little on him). Aumont will likely be more of a strike out pitcher than Drabek and maybe further from the majors since he is likely to be converted from RP to SP by the Phils. So now the likes of Joe Savery and Andrew Carpenter now become much more important for the Phils. Both good prospects but not good like Drabek.

Having Halladay over Lee is good but he has pitched much more than Lee (more wear and tear). But he has been durable too and the fact that they will have him for 3 more years (is that in addition to 2010??) is very likable. Overall a good but very gutsy move by Ruben. Tempting to keep a rotation of Halladay/Lee/Hammels/Blanton/Happ

Chas said...

Don't get me wrong I can't complain about getting Halladay. I just don't understand WHY we didn't just trade for him last summer. We ended up giving them Drabek anyway. We could've kept a few of our own prospects instead of picking up Seattle's, who nobody really sounds too high on.

Also the fanbase wouldn't have to deal with having the possibility of Halladay and Lee in the same rotation. I guess it all comes down to the money...

Jenny said...

No hard feelings about this deal. I'll simply wait and see what it'll bring to the games. Thanks for the update. By the way, these cool giveaways will make you feel good. You deserve it because you're one cool sports fan!

Dr. Steve said...

I want Aumont to be groomed as a closer, not a SP.

GM-Carson said...

Aumont fast track to the majors is in relief.

Dr. Steve said...

In terms of difficulty to acquire, an ace reliever is more than a 3rd or 4th starter.

Brian Raab said...

I would love to have Lee and Halladay, but I did a little research and the whole dual-ace thing doesn't always work out so hot. Check it out. http://thepeoplesphilliesblog.blogspot.com/2009/12/are-two-aces-really-better-than-one.html