Monday, November 17, 2008

Review & Preview - Vol. 5

Pat Burrell
Review: Except for possibly Ryan Howard, there isn't a player on the Phillies that is under the microscope as much as Pat Burrell. At least on this blog, that is. So, I'm not going to spend alot of time rehashing Burrell's up and down season (is there any other way for Pat?). He walked a bunch, struck out a bunch, hit 30-or-so dingers, and sometimes played more than 7 innings. Then he hit two homers in the clinching game of the NLDS. Oh, and he hit a double that resulted in the winning run in Game 5 of the World Freaking Series. All in all, he had a pretty good year.

Memorable Moment: Thank you, "ripjgarcia."

Preview: Burrell is currently in position 188 on the all time homer list, tied with Tony Armas, Robin Yount, and former Phil Cy Williams. In 2009, Burrell will most likely pass John Olerud, Todd Zeile and Tim Wallach among other, but he probably won't be doing it as a Phillie.

Pat was the highest paid player on the team last year ($14 million). The first offer this off-season reportedly was two years and $22 million. The Phils know many players are due for pay raises and may try to lock up some of their younger stars (Howard, Hamels) so Burrell shouldn't expect a much larger offer from the club. I think the Phils will be willing to downgrade in left to keep and pay their young big stars. Burrell could give the Phils a "hometown" discount but there are plenty of teams that need a right handed power bat (especially those in the AL that can put Pat in the DH spot part of the time) that will offer him a better, longer deal.

I hate to do it because Burrell has been my favorite Phillie since his rookie year, but I have to start thinking about who will be replacing Burrell in the outfield next year. Some possibilities...

Rocco Baldelli - free agent - "Cheap potential." That's how the Phils may be looking at Baldelli and it is the reason he may be one of the leading free agent candidates to replace Burrell. No one knows if Baldelli can return to the form he exhibited before being diagnosed with a "medical condition" that limited most of his 2008 season and threatens to shorten or end his career. If he could, he would be the biggest steal since the Reds got Josh Hamilton in the Rule 5. If he doesn't, he could be the biggest waste of time since Danny Tartabull.

Magglio Ordonez - trade candidate - This is a money issue for Detroit. He's due $18 million in 2009 and if the Tigers don't think they can compete for the Central Division, they may want to dump him. Of course, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski had this to say this week; "We're not looking to trade Magglio. He's one of the best hitters in baseball and an important part of our club."

A more likely scenario has Ordonez being traded close to the deadline to a contender when the Tigers are out of it. So, I would scratch Ordonez off the Phils' list, but do it in pencil, because he may be back on the list next July.

Jermaine Dye - trade candidate - The Phils have not been shy recently about dealing with the White Sox (Jim Thome, Freddy Garcia) and I really think this is rumor that has some legs. If the Sox are willing to deal Dye, he fits what the Phils need. He's older and lacks Pat's lusty walk rate, but he is a righthanded power bat that can protect Howard. He will also come at a reduced rate and time commitment ($11 million in 2009 with a $12 million option in 2010). The Phils would also get draft picks for Burrell leaving, so a deal like Dye + draft picks for a combination of Kendrick, Happ, Golson, Bastardo, d'Arnaud, etc. could really benefit the Fightins.

Bobby Abreu - free agent - The Yankees just traded for Nick Swisher, who will be used mainly as a first baseman, but should also see some time in the outfield along with Johhny Damon, Melky Cabrera, Hideki Matsui and Xavier Nady. Considering the money the Yanks are likely to throw at Sabathia/Lowe/Burnett, they may not be willing to give too much for the diminishing skills of Abreu. Abreu can't field worth a shit, he doesn't hit for power, and he would likely cost as much as Burrell. But the Phillies have done dumber things...

Juan Rivera - free agent - Before Rivera missed most of the 2007 season with a broken leg, he was turning into a fine outfielder. He hit for average and power and was an above-average fielder. But a missed season in '07 was followed by a sub-par 2008 (.246-12-45). Like Baldelli, taking a risk on Rivera could result in an absolute steal. A return to .280-20-80 isn't that much of a stretch. Of course, another year of hittig .240 isn't a stretch either.

Raul Ibanez - free agent - This guy is the captain of the "All Underappreciated Team." He's been a lock for .290-20-100 this whole decade, yet he only made $5 million bucks last year. The Phils don't need another lefty, certainly not one that is only a few years younger than Jamie Moyer. He'll sign with Chicago or New York.

Milton Bradley - free agent - Milton Bradley is a dick. But he can hit like a mutha. And except for that time when he tried to go after one of the KC Royals' television announcers, he had an uneventful 2008 season. Besides his emotional stability, the other concern on Bradley is that he only played 19 games in the outfield last season after his famous ACL injury. He may have to stick in the AL where he can DH part time. Sill, I know it wouldn't be a popular thing (I can picture the litany of blogs and comments crying about team chemistry...) but the Phils should at least consider bringing Bradley in based on his offensive ability and the vast contributions he would make to Phillies blogs...

Jay Payton - free agent - Please, God, no.

Jerry Hairston - free agent - See above.



GM-Carson said...

My opinion on each:
Payton is getting older and certainly not better. NO!

Hairston came out of nowhere to have a career year, he sucked all previous years until last season with the Reds. Can't repeat that level of success again or anywhere clost to it. NO!

Abreu- I still like him, but he's lefty and will come with the big price tage, he probably wants 3 years $45 mil. NO!

Ordonez- hells yes, but only if he didn't cost us our top minor leaguers.

Rivera- worth the risk if he came on a 1 or 2 year deal with low base salary (2-4 million range).

Baldelli- can't play a full 9 sometimes or back to back days, but won't need to all the time with the Phils. If he came cheap enough, I'm willing to take the risk.

Dye- hells yes, same reasoning as Ordonez.

Bradley- Corey was right, he's a dick, a huge dick, and I don't want any part of him. That and I don't think he'll ever stay healthy enough in the NL to produce for the price he'll cost.

GM-Carson said...

Happy birthday to Mitch Williams. Hopefully the city has forgiven you now that the Phils have won the World Series...I already have.

JMS said...

It's early and my only opinion on any of them is "boo". Except for Abreau. Double "boo".

ripjgarcia said...

I hit you up with the video you were asking for.. hopefully you got it..

GM-Carson said...

Here's how the ESPN babeball guys voted for NL MVP.

dr. steve said...

No one mentioned Gabe Kapler.

GM-Carson said...

Gabe Kapler actually managed a season in the minors then came out of retirement to have a fine season as a 4th outfielder last year with the Brew Crew.

Ryan Howard 2nd in MVP vote, Pujols deservedly won it.

Corey said...

gabe kapler falls into the same "hell no" category as hairston and payton.

dr. steve said...

I thought he was a Young Buck. I'm looking for Youth and Hitting for Average.

Bob D said...

Pujols deserved the MVP award despite Howard's surge.

Tommorow is Grand Pappy Moyer's B-day.

Ordonez would be the best fit without breaking the bank nor the minors. Rivera, Kapler, Bradley, and Baldelli would be OK to bring in. Kapler would also be an interesting fit for So long Taguchi's spot on the roster.

SirAlden said...

Milton Bradley is the only one in the list that will lead us to a World Series next year.

Everyone else (save Manny and Ordonez who are 20 million + Options) will not over perform Pat. The Mets will be better don't forget.

SirAlden said...

Ordonez is expensive and will cost top minor leaguers.

Manny is expensive and will not cost minor leaguers.

Neither is coming to Philly.

dr. steve said...

Pat Burrell type numbers WILL NOT help us.

We need someone who can hit for average. The Phillies get someone who gets TWO more hits than Burrell a game, and everyone's numbers will be up.

Just because he hit home runs and walked doesn't mean he helped us a lot. The Phillies need more Victornio's. I'd like to see Rowand come back for that matter.

SirAlden said...

So who?!???

Bradley hits for Power and Average, knows Manuel and Utley well.

Would be great if Taylor was ready to be rushed.

GM-Carson said...

Milton Bradley is an injury pronk wanker that the Phils should steer clear of.

Michael Taylor needs at least 1 more season in the minors.