Monday, October 08, 2007

Setting The Table - Part 2

Starting Pitching:
Jon Lieber($7.5mil) and Freddy Garcia ($10 mil) are free agents, as is Kyle Lohse ($4.2.)

Adam Eaton will be in year 2 of his 3 year deal, which may be enough to keep the Phils out of the playoffs until 2010...

Jamie Moyer hit his innings pitched clause, making his 2008 salary $5.5 million if he decides to return. Five and a half million is a lot of cheese to pass up, no matter how fat the mouse is...

Cole Hamels' contract is renewable, he isn't going anywhere soon.

Kyle Kendrick's contract can also be renewed, along with a few others that did or could make a few starts, including JD Durbin, JA Happ, Eude Brito, and John Ennis.

Relief Pitching:
The following relievers are free agents: Jose Mesa, Antonio Alfonseca and JC Romero.

Tom Gordon is signed through next season, and gets a pay cut ($5.5 compared to $7 last year.)

Ryan Madson and Geoff Geary are arbitration eligible.

The team has a $1.5 million option on Julio Mateo, but can go to arbitration of they decline the option.

The contracts of Clay Condrey, Fabio Castro, Anderson Garcia, Yoel Hernandez, Francisco Rosario, Brian Sanches, Matt Smith and Mike Zagurski can be renewed.

Unknown Role:
Brett Myers is signed through '09, and will make a reasonable $8.5 million in '08.

If the season started today, a 12 man staff could look like this:

SP Cole Hamels
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer
SP Adam Eaton

RP Tom Gordon
RP Ryan Madson
RP Geoff Geary
RP Yoel Hernandez
RP Francisco Rosario
RP Fabio Castro
RP Mike Zagurski

Wow. Not good enough...



GM-Carson said...

I like Grand Pappy Moyer, but I hope he retires. I say try and sign Gagne or Francisco Cordero to do our closing duties, or even take a flyer on Troy Percival. Re-signing Romero is a must. Scott Linebrink and lefty Jeremy Affeldt would look good in our pen too. Move Myers back to the rotation. Try to re-sign Lohse, or there's always a chance Curt Schilling would do a comeback tour for a 1 year contract.

*Also, since we basically have no talent in Triple A, sign as many minor league free agents that have some MLB experience so that we have some depth when injuries arise.

GM-Carson said...


Phillies Have $20MM To Burn

The Philadelphia Inquirer's Todd Zolecki tallied up the Phillies' commitments and determined that they have roughly $20MM free to spend on pitching, third base, and perhaps Aaron Rowand. Zolecki feels that the Phils would choose to let Rowand walk if they couldn't fit it all in the budget.

Zolecki mentions Mike Lowell as a possibility for the hot corner; that'd run $8-12MM for '08 depending on how you backload it. Lowell seems in line for at least two years, $22MM. Gordon Edes has speculated that it could require a three or four year commitment. The Phillies at least fall under the teams on Lowell's list, it appears.

The other $10MM or so might all have to go toward a starting pitcher. The Phillies have Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, Cole Hamels, and Kyle Kendrick locked in. If the Phils don't like the free agent market (they had interest in reacquiring Carlos Silva this summer), they could pursue Jon Garland or Dontrelle Willis via trade. The Phils have also scouted Anthony Reyes.

That doesn't leave any money for Andruw Jones, despite recent speculation.

*I don't really want Andruw. I'd rather have Lowell and allow Victorino to man CF next season. Willis or Garland would be welcomed additions to the rotation if they're healthy and the price is right.

Corey said...

i would spend all 20 million on pitching.

furiousBall said...

I say we make a run at Rivera. Actually now that I think of it, we could surprise everyone and sign Carl Pavano for $2o million, no one would ever expect that...

chuckm said...

GMs- Keep in mind that by all accounts, Myers will remain as closer...

It would appear to me that being that the Phillies had the 2nd to worse NL pitching over the course of 162 games, if they can improve it to even just middle of the pack, that along with continued offense power should work. Being that the FA options for starting pitchers is
primarily going to be a bunch of #3
guys that are going to be overpaid, I think the best option would be to stack the BP. It seemed to me that Myers was either 1-2-3 lights out, but could be shaky once men got on base. I think he will further accustom himself to the role and excel. He strikes out a lot of batters and that is what you want in a closer. Gordon had a second wind late last year but remains suspect. He will be the set-up man next season, but I worry about Manuel & Co giving him too long a leash if he falters next season. Make sure Romero is signed and ready to assume the 8th inning role. Madson can be streaky, but will be welcome back. Go out and find a couple of middle relief guys who throw hard, strikes out guys and induce ground balls. Bye-bye Geary, Condrey and of course obese old wash-ups like Mesa and Alfonseca who gas by July. As far the bottom of the pen, Bisenius and Mathieson could be assets that could step up. Let them cut their teeth in mop-up and be ready to step forward in case of injuries. As far as starters, lets hope Cole stays healthy. Kendrick has shown himself to be solid. Moyers #s over the 2007 season werent great, but he does have the tendency to step up when needed most. Really a #5 guy at this point. As far as Eaton, he needs a lot of work offseason, both physically and mentally. There have been articles suggesting that a sports pyschologist that Moyer and Roy Halladay swears by can help him and that Eaton would be amenable. Do it. If Eaton still sucks next season, we should hope that Happ is ready, or that Carrasco or Savery are on a fast track. The Rockies had no problem bringing up young kids. So, it looks like a starter would need to be acquired in the off-season, and that will be tricky. You dont want to get stuck overpaying for a failure for 3-4 years. I really cant make any suggestions other than hoping that the Phillies can find a 3rd-starter quality arm without overpaying or committing. Somebody who could bridge the gap until Carrasco/Savery/Happ etc are ready. I know this would cause much debate, but if Curt Schilling wants to come back to Philly, go for it. Schill has said that he has made his money and being that he has 2 rings under his belt (and a possible third one this season), he may want another challenge and may relish coming back to Philly. He can be annoying with his mouth and blog, but it doesnt look like he has ever seriously disrupted the Red Sox clubhouse. If Curt was into
a 2 year deal at a discount, he has enough in the tank to be a 3rd or 2nd starter.

chuckm said...

furiousball- Pavano might not be a bad idea at all. Both him or Mark Prior have had success in the past and if you could get either one of them on a low-risk, high incentive deal, it could pay off. Another suggestion I would like to make would be to look into Japanese closer Hitoki Iwase for some bullpen help. I dont know what the demand for him would be, but there has been a solid record of NPB bullpen pitchers that have done well in MLB and Iwase is considered the #1 reliever in Japan.

GM-Carson said...

In all seriousness, Carl Pavano is the type of guy the Phils should try signing to a minor league deal. Other possibly minor league deals this offseason include Tony Armas Jr., Tomo Ohka, John Thomson, Casey Fossum, and some others. These guys would be nice to have in the minors in case we need to plug a whole for 15 days or so.

I'd sign Mariano Rivera to 2 years 20 million and move Myers back to the rotation.

Schilling is a pompous prick, but I'd take him for 1 year 12 mil.

furiousBall said...

I'll say this about a Pavano or other proven guy in the past, it has to be a one year deal, we can't get another salary albatross a lá Eaton around our necks

Jarex said...

Sign Mariano, keep Myers for the set-up role and insurance should an injury pop up.

No mention of Charlie's new fat contract?

GM-Carson said...

Corey has a post for tomorrow in regards to the Phils retarded decision to bring back Uncle R-Tard himself.

chuckm said...

jarex- The only two proven closers on the market is Rivera and Cordero and neither the Yankees or Brewers have in-house replacements for them (presuming that Joba Chamberlain goes into the Yankees rotation next season). I cant think of teams that are expected to contend who are really jonesing for a closer unless the Padres decide that Hoffman is finished. Atlanta can use Soriano or Gonzalez, The Cubs have Marmol,
so, in the end I think both the Brewers and Yankees re-up Cordero and Rivera.

GM-Carson said...

I suggest bringing Charlie Hough out of retirement with that wicked knuckleball and making him closer.

goDuke said...

Forget the pitching staff... we must find a way to get ARod. Think of it


Who cares about the rest of the lineup? They score 1200 runs, and we don't even need pitchers!

goDuke said...

Mariano Rivera has informed the Yanks that he's testing the market... so who knows what that means... probably just they will have to pay even bigger bucks for him. But at least no home town discount.

SirAlden said...

The Phillies after earning all that mad cash and looking to earn more should be ashamed of themselves if they do not cough up $35 Million more and bring the payroll to $110 Million.

SP Cole Hamels
SP Brett Myers
SP Kyle Kendrick
SP Jamie Moyer
SP Adam Eaton (REPLACED)
(Shilling, Garcia, Santana, Willis)

Myers MUST BE moved to the rotation. AGAIN - MUST BE moved to the rotation. Any bullpen, no matter how pricey cannot be overused and not expect to implode.

Adam Eaton MUST BE dumped on any team willing to take a chance if the Phillies pay 50% of his salary.
Corey is right with Eaton/Durbin et. all the Phillies are doomed.

Once Myers is in the fold and Eaton is gone that leaves Curt Shilling, Freddie Garcia if healthy, and and trade for Santana or Willis. Everyone else is worthless.

Shilling lived locally, wanted to sign here and has a hero complex that we can put to good use. He would loved to go into the Hall of Fame. With a Phillies World Series he could. Garcia is talked about in many other team blogs as an option. If he could pitch the way he should he would be a great upgrade over Eaton. It is all about the surgery, we will see.

My friend who works in the Red Sox Front office tells me that they have two offseason targets, Santana and Cabrera, and he tells me that they think their greastest competitor are the Phillies and Gillick now that he has righted the payroll. The Red Sox have been playing games with Lowell in anticipation of pushing for Cabrera.

Noone believes me about payroll flexability. Go read the Cardinals blogs and see how fans of a team that cannot make any moves because of their used up payroll feel (Rolen - Isringhausen to Philly is oft dreamed of).

Santana, or Willis in a block buster (Florida please take every single one of our prospects for Cabera and Willis) are both very possible. Only the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers, along with us, have the cash and prospects to take a shot at getting Santana.

Myers in the rotation, and an experienced Pitcher Shilling, Garcia, Santana, or even Willis is what is required.

SirAlden said...

Both team president David Montgomery and general manager Pat Gillick said this morning that the Phillies are willing to increase the money spent on player salaries after winning the National League East title this season...

$110 Million Payroll Thank you very much, and we will have a dynasty.

Jacobin said...

You know, I love the rosters that SirAlden suggests all the time... I usually find them improbable, but I'm not saying I wouldn't like to see these people come to Philadelphia.

I find it far more likely, unfortunately, that we wind up with some retreads and injury risks rather than players you can count on. Oh well, none of this will matter until after the World Series anyway.

GM-Carson said...

SirAlden- your friend in the BoSox "front office", is he an errand runner, a go-for, a coffee boy?

I'd love to have Johan and Miguel, but neither are happening...pipe dream!

SirAlden said...

He is my daughter's sweetheart, he is 3 years out of law school, worked for a Sports Agent in NYC doing contracts for a year now in his second year with the Red Sox.

My read is at his salary he is not a coffee boy, and is in meetings.

The key is please rewind your memory to where the Phillies were 2+ years ago when Gillick arrived.

My view is that Gillick does his best and had the Boy Scout Oath, of trying to leave the woods in better condition than you found it.

Eaton is a very sad sad commitment, but any org spending money has these things, the key is not tying up payroll with long term loss. That is why Garcia as awful as he was was a classic Gillick decision, he did not extend the contract when Freddie came over. He had pitched lights out during Sept 2006 (like lefty reliever Mike Smith), and if he had continued then Gillick would have signed him long term.

SirAlden said...

I predict we will have Santana, Willis, Shilling, or an Oakland A in our rotation on opening day 2008.

Remember I predicted 89 wins Sept 1st.

GM-Carson said...

I see Dontrelle Willis and Curt Schilling as possibilities...not a given, but possible. Johan is a wet dream of yours SirAlden.

SirAlden said...

Agreed Carson, someone is going to get Santana, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, or the Phillies.

We have the cash and we are begining to get the prospects.