Saturday, October 13, 2007

Saturday Poll - 3B Speculation

A recent Yahoo! Sports article proposed letting Aaron Rowand walk and using the money to find a respectable third baseman. They listed 5 names: Lowell, Atkins, Blalock, Tejada, and Crede. I'm going to breakdown some of the options and you vote on 1)preferred and 2)most likely.

Mike Lowell - After a disgustingly bad 2005 season with Florida, Lowell has bounced back with 2 really good years in Boston. An above average glove and solid RH bat would be a perfect fit for the Phils. He made $9 million each of the last two years and probably will be looking for 10-11 per for 2-3 years. In a Jason Stark article back in September, he alluded that Lowell may want to come to Philadelphia. The quote: "But Lowell has sent signals to his friends on the Phillies that, in the words of one of them: 'He would love to play in Philadelphia.'" I respect Stark immensely, but that is at tough quote to rely on. Lowell didn't say he would love to play in Philly, a friend said that after interpreting his "signals." Why don't we just send a note to Lowell, "Will you play for us, check Yes or No."

Garrett Atkins - .301-25-111 from the third base spot. Nice. And looking closer at his numbers, his power has actually been a little better on the road. His average, on the other hand, hasn't. He hit about 100 points lower on the road in two of the last three years, which is something to worry about. Although, a .275-25-85 from third base for a player who isn't eligible for free agency until 2011 is a nice commodity to have. And because of that, it may be hard to pry him away from the Rockies, especially if they make a deeper playoff run and he plays an important part. Factor everything together, and Atkins is kind of a long shot.

Hank Blalock - Blalock is signed through '09 at about $6 million per. He has stuggled through injuries to his shoulder, cutting '07 short and making '06 a sub-par year. If healthy, I think you could pencil him in for .270-25-85 at The Cit. Also, he can't hit left handed pitching, making him perfect for a platoon with Helms next year. Due to his contract, injury risk, and the Rangers' need for young, cheap players, he could be had easier than some.

Miguel Tejada - Tejada makes serious cash, $13 million per year for the next two. Considering his declining skills (lower average, power dropping Abreu-style), it is tough for a developing Baltimore franchise to justify paying that money, even with their great young pitching staff. He also has said that he would move to third base if it meant competing for a championship. He would look good roaming the hot corner and he would be a vast updrade over the crapfest that occupied that spot last year, I'm just not convinced the production he would give the Phils would be worth the trading chips and his salary.

Joe Crede - Crede is coming off of a horrible, injury-plagued year with a horrible team. And with an arbitration value around $5 million dollars, he seems like someone the White Sox may want to get rid of. He would be a big risk though. He could get back to '06 form (anything close would be great for $5 mil) or he could go the way of Morgan Ensberg. I just hope the Phils don't read, see their Burrell for Crede idea, and run with it. That would not be good.
Preferred 3B

Likely 3B



chuckm said...

Lowell for 2 years + option would be fine as long as pitching needs take precedence. He coulkd drop 30+ line drive HRs into the flower bed and beyond with ease.

Atkins would be great, but what would the Rockies be looking for?

Blalock - A strikeout machine who is weak vs LHP and whose career road #s & post-break production is poor.

Tejada- too expensive

Crede- A bad back is a bad back is a bad back. pass.

Corey said...

is that a gertrude stein reference?

Maria said...

Lowell is the most probable and the best option besides Atkins which I doubt the Rockies would let go of.

SirAlden said...

The Correct Answer is???

Miguel Cabrara 3B in a trade with Dontrell Willis.

Cabrara will be able to slide into left after Burrell is gone in a few years.

BTW fantastic work on the post.

SirAlden said...

The Elias Sports Bureau rankings which come out in early November As part of the new collective bargaining agreement, starting in the offseason of 2007, a Type A will become the top 20 percent, and Type B will become the 21-40 percent of all players at their position over a two year period. All other free agents will have no compensation, Type C has been eliminated.

Teams still have to offer their free agents arbitration (a one year contract) in order to receive compensation.

Type A free agents will yield the signing team's first-round pick (provided it's not in the upper half of the first round) and a supplemental first-rounder from MLB. Type B has changed. The signing team does not lose a pick, but the losing team gets a supplemental “sandwich pick” between the first and second rounds as compensation from MLB.

Tampa Bay .407, Pittsburgh .420, Baltimore .426, Kansas City .426, Florida .438, San Francisco .438, Cincinnati .444, Chicago Sox .444, Washington .451, Houston .451, Texas .463, Oakland .469, St. Louis .481. Minnesota 488, and ironically the Dodgers .506 will not lose a first round pick if they sign a Type A Free Agent.

If these teams sign a Type A Free Agent the losing team will receive a supplemental “sandwich pick” from MLB, and the second round pick from the signing team.

If a team signs more than one Type A free agent, its picks are parceled out to the "losing" clubs in an order determined by the ratings of the free agents the team signed. For example, Baltimore signed Baez, whose rating was 69.810, and Chad Bradford, whose rating was 62.890. Since Baltimore's first-round pick was protected, the Orioles lost their second-round pick to Atlanta (for Baez) and then their third-round pick to the Mets (for Bradford).

The rating system groups players into five categories -- catchers, starting pitchers, relief pitchers, infielders other than first basemen, and first basemen/outfielders/designated hitters. Players are ranked in five to seven statistical categories, with the specific categories varying by their position grouping (e.g., there are no fielding stats used in the 1B/OF/DH group, but the catcher and infielder groups each include two defensive stats).

Cumulative statistics may be adjusted for players who spent time on the disabled list, restoring stats for up to 60 days of missed playing time.

The Phillies should offer arbitration to Aaron Rowand (he should be a Type A), Kyle Lohse (should be a Type B), and J.C Romero (could be a Type B).

The Phillies have a 1st, 2nd, and two 3rd Round Picks (because Brandon Workman did not sign). If they sign two Type A Free Agents in a worst case they will lose their first rounder and second rounder.

That would leave the Philies with whatever picks were gained for losing Rowand, Lohse, and or Romero, and their two 3rd rounders.

This is a great year for the Phillies to enter the free agent market.

SirAlden said...

Lowell and Schilling from Boston.

Los said...

I think Lowell for 2 years wouldn't be bad ... unfortunately, with the Bosox doing so well right now, I think his price tag could rise ... plus, he'll probably ask for more years.

Bob D said...

Management will look for a 1 to 2 year fix for 3B. Dobbs will see some time and Coste and Helms are options. But I think there will be a middle infielder brought in to replace Nunez and possibly replace Helms. The likely senario is Helms and Dobbs and the new player to replace Nunez split time at 3B and they prepare Constanzo, Donalds or someone else from the minors to play 3B. Constanzo may only be a year away, so why spend alot for 3B for only 1 year?

Keeping Werth is key this offseason. They would have Burrell, Bourn, Victorino, and Werth for the outfield and they can trade from a position of strength (Burrell). If they keep both Werth and Rowand look for a trade to definitely happen with an outfielder involved.

I was away for the last week so I had some catching up to do here.

GM-Carson said...

Lowell for 2 years good, anything more- very risky. I could see the BoSox re-upping him though, especially if they make the World Series.

I'd love to have Atkins, but he'll cost too much to get from the Rocks.

goDuke said...

Bourne sucks... don't include him in your thoughts for a good future outfield.