Friday, October 26, 2007

Romero To Walk...

...WSBGM's To Not Care.

That's not to say I don't want Romero on the '08 Phils, I just don't want him signed to a large, long-term deal.

Here are some key quotes from the Philadelphia Inquirer article about Romero's impending free agency.

"We have had some discussions," said Dan Lozano, Romero's agent from the Beverly Hills Sports Council. "But I'm not too optimistic at this point. I'm waiting to hear back from the Phillies."

Last season, relief pitchers such as righthander Justin Speier (four years, $18 million) and lefthander Jamie Walker (three years, $12 million) received considerable contracts. Those could be good indicators when thinking about what Romero could be seeking.

$4 to 4.5 million per year. 3-4 year deals. I'm breaking out in hives just thinking about it.

Romero had a great season with the Phils last year. He posted a 1.24 ERA in 51 appearances for a bullpen desperate for a live arm. Not since Ryan Madson in '04 have the Phils had such a good bullpen surprise. And given the continued need for bullpen arms, most Phillies fans are biting their nails, pacing the floor and popping Tums, concerned Romero may walk, as if the fate of the bullpen depends on him.

I'm just saying, "simmer down now." Sure Romero had a great 2.5 months, but does his body of work justify a long deal?

He'll turn 32 next season and has 6 full seasons in the majors, and here is what we KNOW about Romero.
1. His year to year performance varies tremendously. ERA's of 1.89, 1.92, 3.50 are mixed in with 6.70, 5.00.
2. He walks a lot of batters. Even with the Phils, his K:BB ratio was 31:25. He walked more than he K'd while with Boston.

Other factors to consider.
1) His '07 performance with the Phils was sooooo out of character for Romero. His WHIP of 1.101 was unbelievable, especially compared to prior WHIPS: 1.40, 1.75. 1.56. I get extra nervous when teams sign relievers to big deals based on a single outlying statistical year. I think of '02 Chris Hammond, '01 Steve Karsay, '99 Rich Garces, '05 Kyle Farnsworth...
2) He changed leagues. Few NL batters had seen Romero before, to his advantage. Many pitchers have initial success when changing leagues for this reason, only to have the league "catch up" and the player returns to their expected level of success.

All this being said, it is very early in the negotiation process. Like bob d said in the comments last night, "Each team has exclusive negotiations with their own free agents for 2 weeks after the World Series. the negotiations with Romero are just starting, so his agent maybe just playing his hand with the media to get more $$$." We can't read too much into the talk and dollar figures thrown around at this time. Until the deal is done, we just have to think like siralden and have unsubstantiated, unrealistic, blind-faith optimism that Pat Gillick will do what is right for this bullpen.

Corey

9 comments:

Bob D said...

No need to fret yet about it. Having Madson and Gordon back will have 2 bullpen spots set. I'm not counting Myers as a closer until we see what happens with trades/signings this offseason. If a closer becomes available for Gillick, and most likely in a trade, then he will likely pull the trigger on it. That would shore up the rotation as well as add an experienced closer to the pen. Gillick does need to add at least 2 setup men to the pen, including 1 top pitcher. We may even see a rule 5 pick plugged in there.
Losing Yoel Hernandez isn't a huge loss, but before hurting himself last year (2006) he had alot of potential and could still become a good reliever. Kyle Davis didn't do much in the majors but he did strike out alot in AAA and threw in mid 90's. He will likely end up on a team like the Nationals.

GreggyD said...

It is clear that all of us true phans are most concerned about the bullpen and the season isn't even over yet. I just hope that Gillick does his best to bring in some quality pieces to help sure up the relief staff. With a quality bullpen, this team could be amazing next season. The offseason hasn't even begun yet and it's already captivating. I love it.

SirAlden said...

Brilliant Corey.

Here is hoping he signs. Here is knowing that teams are so desperate for pitching that someone will throw 3 years and 10 million at him.

Even 5 years ago you could sign pitchers that would make a difference. Where have they all gone? They can't take the performance enhancers and there are way too many teams.

You are thinking like Gillick now. What I have been trying to say, and have not been clear about is this - Gillick thinks like an adult. Just exactly the way Corey did in this brilliant POST.

Makes educated guesses. Like Garcia based on his 2006 September.
Or Awful Eaton. They blow up in his face.

We are in big trouble again with our pitching next year. Gillick has a shot at trading for that starter. If he does not get him. We are sunk. If he does not get him it will not because he does not care. We need a big time starter, a closer and 2 set up men.
Then we will have a dynasty as GM-Carson pointed out. We have these next 3-4 years of Rollins to Utley to Howard, and with an affordable Victorino catching everything in sight.

Unlike St. Louis and other teams Gillick now has payroll flex and the owners better damn open up the f*cking coffers, get us up to 115 mil payroll, and put serious money into next years draft and development. We bought the tickets. Give us the money back in wise moves.

SirAlden said...

For anyone who has ever worked for stupid people who do not deserve to be in control of capital.

Pull and pray for Gillick. Don't blame him, the owners use him as a shield. A revolving shield that goes back to Francona, Bowa, native philadelphian Joe Kerrigan, and Wade.

SirAlden said...

"unsubstantiated, unrealistic, blind-faith optimism that Pat Gillick will do what is right for this bullpen."

I have substantiated, realistic, knowledge that Pat Gillick continually tries to help the team.

Lohse, Iguchi, Romero, Dobbs, and Werth are the last 5 examples. Without these 5 players the 2007 Phillies would not have been the Champions of the NL East after 14 long years.

He is going to continue to try. I have faith that he will. There is no certainty he will be able to succeed in the current marketplace.

If the current owners open the bank, he has positioned us to be able to succeed by eliminating bad debt (he failed when adding Eaton), building the minors by not losing draft picks, and making the crucial decisions to trade Thome to create a spot for Howard, salary dump Abreu to create a spot for Victorino, and bring up Hamels.

These three "big picture" stewardships have placed the Phillies in a position to succeed long term.

Corey said...

"Do, or do not. There is no try." "

SirAlden said...

Yes yoda Corey.

Do you have hair begining to grow out of your ears as well?

A GM does and is adored. A GM does not or is not able to and is hated.

Gillick is going to do just what any of us would do, try to go get the Starter, the Closer, the 8th Inning Guy, the LOOGY, the 3Baseman, the handed platoon Right Fielder, and a middle infielder.

He is not going to waste money. 15 mil for 3 years is the most recent rumor of the asking price for Romero. He is not going to sign clubhouse cancers.

He had positioned the payroll so he can hit it in the Upper Deck this off-season, but the top 5 spenders will be fighting him.

Unlike Wade who straight jacketed us, he has freed the payroll, and righted the ship. Wish him luck as he tries to cash in the chips he has earned the last two years by saving cash.

GM-Carson said...

Corey as Yoda, now there's a funny mental image...

Spencer said...

I agree with you Corey - I do want them to try and sign him - but more than 2 years would be a mistake. I do think the dollars will be substantial though - look at the $13 million dollar, 2-year deal that Pinero got from the Cardinals as an indicator - and his history isn't any better.

Fact of the matter is the Phillies need to find pitchers who are just about to break out and sign them - that requires great scouting and intelligence - neither of which a strong point with this team.

A Rubber Door