Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Too Late

I hate the West Coast. I've never been there, probably never will be, but I know I hate it. Why? I'm an East Coast dude both mentally an nocturnally...stuff happens too late out there for my liking. For example, I was growing very tired around 10:45 pm last night and decided I saw enough of the Phils vs. Dodgers game and it wasn't worth staying up to watch (score was 3-1 Dodgers in the bottom of the 1st). Thankfully I opted for some shut-eye rather than suffer through the 10-3 thrashing Brad Penny and the Dodger's offense inflicted upon us. That puts the Phils record at .500 for the 12th time, and now have allowed the enemy a 10 Spot for the 11th time this season. Playing .500 baseball isn't going to get you anywhere is this league, and with this pitching staff the Phils will be lucky to out-slug the competition enough times to hover around that mark. They may make another 2nd half push, but I'm afraid it will be all for naught, because just like the West Coast it will be too late.


Rowand vs. Abreu:

Somebody on another blog said Aaron Rowand has no trade value and directly compared it to the Bobby Abreu situation last season. Personally I was a fan of Abreu and thought we got ripped off in the "deal", but this is an unjustified comparison. It's not unfair in the sense that Abreu has had a superior career to Rowand, it's unfair because of what stage of their careers each were at as the trading deadline approached.

1st- Rowand is having a better year than Abreu was. Rowand is having a breakout All-Star season offensively and his defensive prowess is very hyped, opposed to Abreu who seemed to lose all power and became warning track shy on defense.

2nd- Rowand is younger than Abreu and probably at the peak of his career rather than the decline like Bobby.

3rd- Rowand's 4+ million dollar contract is easier to manage and take on for a contending team than Bobby's 10+ million for last season and this season. That's why Abreu went to the Yankees as they were the only ones willing to take on that kind of money and risk.

4th- Fence-Face is a tough ass and Baby Abreu is not.

*I'm not advocating the trade of Aaron Rowand quite yet, but if the Phils do become sellers, I would think he'd fetch more than a marginal left-handed reliever and minor league fodder.


Game Notes:
*Pat Burrell has a 7 game hitting streak and has raised his average to .230...hopefully raising his trade value too (I know, wishful thinking).

*I like Grand Pappy Moyer, but his era is now resting on the brink of crappy (4.99). Manuel allowed the veteran of veterans to take his lumps last night by allowing all 10 Dodger runs.

*It's a shame the Phils are going to fall out of contention because Chase Utley is really having an MVP-like year.

*Sorry my post wasn't funny today, but loss #10,001 seemed to hurt me more than the Special 10K, and we have J.D. Durbin and his 13.50 era starting the game for us tonight and nothing is funny about that.



BloodStripes said...

There is no joy in getting smashed. Its all getting a bit to regular these drubbings.

If Rowand were to be traded we would want no less than an all-out ace in return.

GM-Carson said...

BloodStripes- although I like your optimism, we won't be getting an ace in return for Fence-Face. We may get a prospect or two that might because a future ace, but no legit current MLB starter will be coming our direction this trade deadline.

I'm affraid the Phils will mortage off the future for a piece of crap like washed-up ChiSox starter Jose Contreas. He leads the AL in losses with 11 and has a plus 5 era and is signed for 10 mil in '08 and 11 mil in '09...we don't need another Adamn Eaton in our rotation.

BloodStripes said...

Well I hope we keep Fence-Face. No point in trading him for another failure.

If your right then we should NOT trade Rowand. We have a quality starter. Myers ought to go back in the rotation. It may take longer for him to return but what other option is there that is better than that if we can't get an ace for Rowand? Freddy may come back strong. Who knows? The cattle is there without making a trade, just need 'em healthy.

Bob D said...

I sense another 10 runs tonight - hopefully from the Phillies. ESPN believes the Phils will be buyers this year since they are as good as last year and the Mets are doing bad enough to keep the Phils in it.

Jarex said...

You should drop your East Coast bi-ass and come out to the Left Coast to hang. Beyond simple things s/a better quality of life and the general disposition of the populace, other perks include the following:

-waking up to the Eagles at 10 o'clock on Sunday morning
-listening to the Phillies from 3000 miles away, which makes the losing more tolerable. Also:
-Listening to the Phillies at 4:35 in the afternoon, or, on those gems known as biz man's specials, at 9 in the morning.

Jarex said...

Regarding Rowand - I guess it would depend on the outfield situations for each "buyer" - how many need CFs who can walk after the season?

Rowand could be the type of solidifying force that Dutch was when he went to the Marlins in '97 - if there's a team that needs a "club house guy", then I think that's the only option.

Personally, Victorino represents a better card to play.

furiousBall said...

Trading Rowand makes no sense to me. He's an All Star making $4M/year. Here's what we need to dump by any means possible and go young...

Helms, Barajas, Mesa, Burrell, Gordon, Alfonseca.

I don't mind keeping Moyers only if he's the 4th or 5th starter, but right now he's effectively our 2nd starter. Which makes me cry.

Muller said...

I agree with Furiousball.

Rowand and Utley are the best parts about going to the ballpark right now.

Oh, and JD Durbin caused a giant earthquake in Japan with his shitty play. His ERA is higher than the quake's magnitude. Fuck that asshat.

Jacobin said...

What do you mean Moyer's ERA is on the brink of crappy? A 4.99 ERA is crappy.

I want to keep Rowand, but if you are not going to resign him and this team is not going to be in the playoffs then you need to get something for him while you can.

GM-Carson said...


1. Not only do I have East Coast bias, I haven't even given the Left Coast a chane with a mere visit...screw the West!

2. I like Aaron Rowand. I think this will be his career year though, and if the Phils don't intend on resigning him then trade him for the best package.

3. 5+ era is crappy/sucks in my opinion, so Moyer is currently skating on thin ice below that distinction.

4. J.D. Durbin is awesome...at sucking!

SirAlden said...

Empty #1
Hamels #2
Empty #3 (Kendrick is good ATM)
Moyers #4 (with low pitch counts)
Eaton #5 (with a .500 W-L)

This is where we are now with the loss of Garcia, Myers, with Lieber really equaling Kendrick. We are going to be a .500 team or worse with Moyers pitch counts now high.

I really do think that Brett Myers took to closing, if you watched his face, and mtv ps2 brain wave pattern of youth, you would have to say - " wow with no real shut-down closers out there this winter that can be depended on, and lots of Dick Ruthven type starters Brett Myers is our bullpen ace.

However if we wish to win this year Brett Myers must be put in the rotation, and we must trade for a Corey Lidle type in someone like Lohse. If we do that and trade unloved but average as a #2 catcher Barajas for Myers, I really can see Pat Burrell's walk off homerun against the Mets this Sept taking us into the post season.

If Myers is put in the pen it will be because the GM is again engaging in delayed gratification which although arguably correct (creating Brett Myers as a top closer) will add to our deep systemic depression.

As I have argued continually, pitching now is just too rare in the market place, and dreaming to out bid the Yankees and Red Sox (whose ticket prices are double ours when you account for average cost of family or 4 at the Ball park), or any mid range team signing its Ace, and add in that noone in his right mind would want to risk his family's future revenue pitching in CBP (do you think we are going to be able to sign anyone for a full career - think Hamel's - think Cali boy - think Large and Super Large - Dodger and Padres Stadium - and California girls in Hollister short skirt and tank tops) the Phillies now have long term big pitching problems.

Realizing this, Gillick has correctly has mapped out a future that mirrors the Oakland A's our former Philly roomate in the American League. We need to continually develop pitching way the A's do with top draft picks.

Gillick has had 4 number 1 picks in the last 2 years while Wade had 1 in his last 3.

This will not help us this year, but it is the wise and only way to go.

GM-Carson said...

Phillies All-Star 2B Chase Utley, the pride of UCLA and southern California, asked if he someday wants to play for his hometown Dodgers: "I'm a Phillie for life." Utley agreed to a seven-year, $85 million dollar extension with Philadelphia earlier this summer.

*If this is true, he'll most likely surpass the great Michael Jack Schmidt as my favorite Phillie of all-time.

SirAlden said...

Right now Fence Face will bring us a number 1 and number 3 draft pick.

Keep him.

GM-Carson said...

Speaking of Kyle Lohse...From FoxSports- The Phillies don't seem to have enough pieces to land somebody such as Dontrelle Willis or Matt Morris. (It would be incorrect to assume that free-agent-to-be Aaron Rowand would be enough to land a pitcher like that.) Kyle Lohse, anybody? Lohse, who will be a free agent after the season, is with the Cincinnati Reds. He is 5-11 with a 4.68 ERA, which would make him the No. 4 starter on this staff. "It depends on the starter," Gillick said. "I don't know if there are any impact pitchers out there. But I'd say it'd be questionable if we had enough to get an impact pitcher. We hope to find somebody to do a credible job in the rotation, but we don't have a lot of those bullets to use."

Free Agents in '08 Closers- Mariano Rivera, Bob Wickman, Francisco Cordero and Eric Gagne. *Just reminding everyone that keeping Myers at closer is not necessary and unwise.

Phillies righthander Adam Eaton is 8-6 with a 5.98 ERA. He has the second-worst ERA in baseball out of 89 pitchers who qualify for the statistic. Only St. Louis Cardinals righthander Kip Wells is worse, with a 6.25 ERA.

GM-Carson said...

I may be wrong, but I thought compensation picks were being eliminated starting with this free agent class meanin next year's draft.

Maximis said...


He's fun to watch, and though I can agree that he may in fact be having a career year, I still like him in center for the Phils.

For a team that recently had the 457 year old Kenny Lofton in center (remember?), Rowand is a gladiator.

I want to weigh in on this issue...but I dont really know how. I dont see how one marginally better pitcher will help us...except that JD Turdbin won't be pitching as one of our starters.

That Dodger game was rough, luckily I am traveling to California and will hopefully be seeing Phils-Padres this Thursday.

Last time I saw that, J-Roll hit an inside the park homer. Lets hope that will happen again.

GM-Carson said...

As far as trading Rowand, I say it's done for a move towards the future not for the '07 season. I either want a young starting pitcher or 3rd baseman with upside that has little MLB experience but decent upside, or a true prospect. I know this will be difficult to attain, but I'd hate to see Rowand walk at the end of the season and get nothing in return.

michael said...

exactly i dont see how Kyle Lohse will make a differnce, all he does is fill a roster spot. as far as putting myers back into the rotation forget about it for this season, he's been working out for coming back as a closer. throwing him back into the rotation after this injury will put him out for the year. i say next year go out get an actual closer and put him into the rotation. i also love how people (i've read it on other boards) will automatically assume every good player on this team will flee to the west coast or mid west as soon as they get the chance, who besides wolf has done that recently?

SirAlden said...

You may be right about the comp picks Carson I know they are getting harder to achieve, the player has to be better in a higher percent against peers.

Mariano Rivera, Bob Wickman, Francisco Cordero and Eric Gagne

Against 30 other teams, Rivera and Wickan are not going to be available and as I have said in other posts not a high chance we get Cordero, and Gagne is a west coast boy with 2 herniated disks and 2 tommy johns, but I would still throw money at him.

Jason Isringhausen of the Cards is a possiblity. Take a look at this well written blog from St. Louis.


It shows thanks to Scott "farmer green jeans" Rolen how the Cards payroll is in a total straight jacket the way the Phillies were 2 years ago. Fun to read of others payroll woes.

They posters are so desperate on this site to shed salary and get young speedy prospects they are looking at Jesus Mechan our SS at AA (who took 5 years to make it out of A ball). LOL

At least we have the MAD CASH when it becomes time to pull the trigger.

Have to put Brett Myers in the rotation this year, have to resign Garcia with no loss of first round draft picks if he gets healthy, have to MOVE CBP Walls out 10 feet this winter.

GM-Carson said...

The only way I would consider signing either Freddy Garcia or Donut-Eater Lieber would be to a 1 year low base salary incentive laden contract with a reasonable option year.

I'd take Kyle Lohse if he didn't really cost us much of a prospect. Maybe we could trade the Reds Rod Bararjas, they seem to love catchers...I believe they're carrying 3 or 4 of them right now.

Jacobin said...

When CBP opened, we moved up to like fifth in total payroll. Now just a few short years later, the team is mired somewhere closer to the middle of the pack in total payroll (I heard 10th on one account and 14th from another). The payroll has actually gone down in recent years. This ownership group is just about getting its yearly money. They don't care if the team wins anything other than profit.

michael said...

but it a lot of the team is making very little money (howard, hamels, victorino, etc) so thats a big reason in the drop but yeah all the more reason to be able to sign big name players.

SirAlden said...

Dear GM "farts flowers" Carson

Here I think is the answer...

Draft Choice Compensation
In 2006, compensation for type B players becomes indirect (sandwich pick) as opposed to direct compensation from signing Club.

Meaning a 3a Pick and an type A is a 1a + a 3a. UNLESS two FA's sign with the same team ala Delucci and Fultz and you are screwed I believe. Our 1a pick Travis d'Arnaud and our 3a pick Matt Spencer was because of Delucci, and we missed out on a 1a and 3a from Fultz who was a type A free agent because you cannot TWO-FER up a team which is a sucky rule, if Fultz had signed with a team that had not given up it's first pick we would have double dipped.

3. Effective 2007, Type A players limited to top 20 percent of each position (down from 30 percent) and Type B players become 21 percent - 40 percent at each position (rather than 31 percent - 50 percent).

This means that this winter the 2 year average will be stricter Rowand will be an type A, Garcia a type B maybe an A, Lieber a type B maybe nothing.

Amateur Draft
1. Clubs that fail to sign first or second round draft pick will receive the same pick in the subsequent draft as compensation. Club that fails to sign a third round pick will receive a sandwich pick between rounds three and four in the subsequent draft as compensation.

Hoping we get HS'ers Workman and Sampson signed. We have 7 people left from our top 33 to sign, the Red Sox as of today have 16 of their top 33 left to sign.

Go Figure. 28 days left to sign draft picks.

SirAlden said...

Right now a first round pick from a team 1a, and a third round sandwich pick for Rowand sounds pretty good.

You just don't know who will want to lose there 1st rounder for Rowand who is having a career year. If they don't then his price comes down from the heavens and we sign him and hopefully move him to right then left after Burrell is gone.

If you were a GM Carson would you give up a young starting pitcher or 3rd baseman with upside that has little MLB experience but decent upside, or a true prospect for 75 games of Rowand?

You might if it meant a World Series and you had an agreement in place with years and money with Rowand, but that is unlikely with weird prices that were paid for FA CF'ers

So that leaves... a true prospect.

What true prospect would be given up that would be better than next years drafting of a 1A and 3A?

SirAlden said...

Donut is toast

Garcia if healthy will get a 2 year 18 million deal.

michael said...

Garcia has a good track record up until this year. his deal with be probably incentive laden and a 1yr option on it. any team who signs him i wouldn't say is making a bad deal. but he should face facts and get surgury.

Jacobin said...

Truth is that this team has its fanbase in a painful position this year. They are close enough in the standings that one is tempted to think that they can just make a move or two and be in it come September/October. But the reality of the situation is that they probably need one good starter and at least one if not two improvements to the bullpen (beyond waiting for injuries to heal).

Coupled with these needs is the dearth of marketable minor leaguers that would be ready to make actual contributions to a major league team. You can talk about trading away people like Rowand, Bourn, and Victorino but you are faced with knowing that there isn't anything to replace them with from inside this organization at this time (maybe some of the draft picks from this year and last will work out, but not until 2009 at the earliest).

The Phillies are kind of in an amorphous zone in between needing make one or two key moves and needing to build for the future. If this were the NBA, which David Montgomery has told us he wishes it were, you'd be a team just making the playoffs or just missing them each year and not getting a good enough pick to change your lot in life.

The core group of players - Rollins, Utley, and Howard - are too good to be giving up on, but the pitching is in shambles. If Kendrick turns out to be a reliable 4th or 5th starter, we've stepped in shit. But other than Hamels and Kendrick, no one in the rotation is a product of this system (instead they are retreads and damaged castoffs from other organizations).

There's no magic wand to fix this situation, and we know the ownership is not going to go out and approve the HUGE contracts it would take to bring good pitching to this ballpark.

SirAlden said...

I disagree. I believe the ownership would go for Zambrano if we could get him, and was prepared to give Garcia big money if he had proven himself.

There is just no pitching out there! Zambrano, Schilling, and Garcia, is it this winter.

Santana is a target.

Jarex said...

Durbin's gonna be lights out tonight - or lit up. Can't figure which yet.

option one:
7 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 2bb, 8 Ks

option two
4.2 IP, 9 hits, 6 ER, 4 bb, 3 Ks

Assuming option two, double or nothing says Cholly bats him with the bases loaded and one out in the top of the 5th.

Los said...

I'd love (as you know) to see Burrell traded ... wishful thinking, however. His contract is ridiculously high for the lack of talent that he provides, AND he has a no-trade clause, which burned us a few times last season, from what I hear.

Jacobin said...

So how many runs does Durbin give up tonight? Does the pitching staff make it three games in a row of 10?

Jacobin said...

Damn, Lieberthal got the tag down on Durbin! I hope Barajas was watching, since he needs all the instruction he can get in blocking plates and tagging out runners.

Jacobin said...

Bases loaded with no outs and the Phillies add to their league lead in runs or their league lead in men left on base?

...yup, no runs score.

BENTZ said...

Missed the play...but Lieberthal was never really too good at blocking the plate either over the years...but still light years better than Barajas.

5-0. Hendrickson on the ropes big-time. Dodger bullpen is short as well. Shane is crushing the ball. Keep it rolling.

BloodStripes said...

10 Spot!!!!

BloodStripes said...

Alright Durbin!

das411 said...

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA JD Durbin and the Phils offense said "STFU, Drama Queen!"

BloodStripes said...

Hey Carson. Remember a few months back you said to me. "BloodStripes just move to America already". Well, I want to say thankyou for saying that because you gave me a great idea. I recently entered the green card lottery. So when I win, I will come live in America. Forget a short holiday, I'm coming for good. Ha!

GM-Carson said...

That is a run of 5 straight games since the All-Star break that the Phils have seen a 10 Spot. They've done is 3 times and allowed it 2 times...weird.

GM-Carson said...

BloodStripes- if you truly do come and reside in America, I'm buying you a brew brotha! We'll go watch a Phils game and a local bar, get smashed, and bitch about how shitty the Phils have been over the years.

BloodStripes said...

$100 it cost me mate. Can you believe it. $100 and I win America. All of it. Good value I reckon. I'll win and you will see me bro. As Tug would say. "You gotta believe". And believing I am. Its the only way.

BloodStripes said...

These 10 spots are getting way out of hand. At least we are up 3-2.

BloodStripes said...

Phantasy league mate. I'll give you Posada for Soriano or Sizemore. You got backup for that. What do you reckon?