Saturday, March 31, 2007

92

Brace yourself...The Philadelphia Phillies will win the NL East in 2007 with a 92-70 record and proceed to dominate in the playoffs, finishing up October with a World Series championship. Before you try to slap my image silly with your mouse cursor, please let me entertain and illuminate you as to why I am predicting this. The 92 wins are based on a exceedingly complex mathematical formula that I devised and accounts for statistical projections, my intuition/hunch/gut feeling, a Magic 8-ball, a Ouija board, and a time machine. If you remember, it is me that predicted 85-86 wins last year, so you best believe me now. By the way, for today only I am known as Pythagoras.

Starting 8:
1B- Ryan Howard. Let me break this down so that even Charlie Manuel could comprehend, this man is a beast! However, I do not expect Howard to duplicate his monster season of '06 (that's not pessimistic, it's realistic). I do foresee MVP like numbers though once again- .290 AVG, 45+ HR, 125+ RBI...I'll take that. Something else to look for, improved defense at firstbase from the Mammoth.
2B- Chase Utley. He is my prediction for 2007 NL MVP. I know others may put up gaudier stats, but the Phils are winning the World Series and the world is going to see that Utley is their leader. Call me crazy, but he could possibly blast 40 longballs this year.
SS- Jimmy Rollins. Last year will be his career year for "power", but don't worry he will still jack about 18. This is the season Rollins puts it all together and bats for average, takes walks to increase on base %, gets his extra base hits, steals bases, and scores tons of runs.
3B- Wes Helms. It felt oh so good not to type David Bell after that "-". Helms will do just fine with the bat. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up .290 AVG, 23 HR, 85+ RBI, it's the mitt we're worried about. Hopefully Helms is adequate enough at manning the hot corner so that Fuqua isn't tempted with starting No-Hit Nunez there instead.
C- Rod Barajas. I was unhappy with this signing at first, but I am liking it more and more as time goes by. Barajas has decent pop in his bat and is a quality defensive backstop and calls a good game.
LF- Pat Burrell. Many of us are Burrell fans and want nothing more than for him to succeed. He'll hit homeruns and get his RBI's, but I expect a repeat of last season.
CF- Aaron Rowand. Love his hard-nosed style play, hate his bat. He's looked horrible all spring and I just don't see him turning it around. In my eyes, he's a .250 hitter with poor on base skills, and average extra base potential. Trade him for a quality setup man!
RF- Shane Victorino. Expect a breakout season from this guy. I expect him to have double-digits in doubles, triples, homeruns, and stolen bases, not to mention scoring a butt-load of runs while playing Gold Glove worthy defense.

Rotation:
1. Brett Myers. He is ready to harness all of that angst and take it out on opposing teams. He's the ace, and he will win 20 games and the NL Cy Young (I'm being serious).
2. Cole Hamels. He will continue to experience peaks and valleys until he establishes himself on the inner-half of the plate against righties, but he will still win a fair share of games with plenty of k's.
3. Jamie Moyer. Grand Pappy will do exactly what we expect, which is pitch 200 innings with a mid-4 ERA and do Junior Dick-Dick Dubee's job (pitching coach).
4. Adam Eaton. If he stays healthy the entire season, it quite truly would be divine intervention and the Phillies will certainly win the World Series. I don't know what the hell to expect from Eaton honestly.
5. Freddy Garcia. Lets all take a moment to pray that we didn't get bamboozled in this trade. We NEED a healthy Garcia to give us a minimum of 30 starts.

Bullpen:
Closer- Tom Gordon. As is the case with Eaton, if Gordon manages to elude the DL, the baseball gods are smiling on us.
Swingman- Donut-Eater. Lieber is still on the team, so I'm assuming he pitches long relief and spot starts. In the best case scenario, he ends up becoming a lights out reliever and steps in as a setup man.
The Rest- Clay Condrey, Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary, Matt Smith, Antonio Alfonseca. Wow, what a crap-heap! This group could suprise us though, here's how- Madson returns to '04 form, Geary replicates last season, Smith continues his MLB success, Condrey finds a way not to suck, and Alfonseca pitches like he did when he was closing.

Bench:
Jayson Werth, Chris Coste, and Carlos Ruiz will probably all receive playing time as the receiver during the season. I love Ruiz's batting potential and Coste was awesome last year. Werth will also backup corner outfield along with Greg Dobbs who was scorching hot this spring. Abe Nunez, whom I detest, will be the primary infield replacement player. The speedy Michael Bourn has a chance at making the squad and would be a useful pinch-runner and defensive replacement in the outfield.


Waiting:
Pitchers- Eude Brito, Fabio Castro, Zack Segovia, Brian Mazone, Ryan Cameron, and Brian Sanches. Joe Bisenius looks primed and ready now, and I predict he will be in the Phils 'pen within a month and become a reliable cog for Manuel to use.
Positional Players- Danny Sandoval, Brent Abernathy, Jason Jaramillo, Ron Calloway, Lou Collier, and Chris Roberson.



Don't bother reasoning with me, I'm too hopped up on hope to opt out of my optimism.

~Carson

34 comments:

chuckm said...

I'm good with the 92-70 prediction. My method is also not scientific or mathematic and consists of "This team has fallen barely short for most of the decade so they are overdue to get in the door". Its like they missed the playoffs despite having the 4th best record for 2 years in a row, so the luck pendulum has to swing back at some point, even if God/Jah/Allah/whomever seemingly hates Philadelphia. That and for whatever holes and ?s the Phillies have, you look around at the other squads in the NL and the Phillies stack up very well. I mean, the Cardinals?...c'mon....So, I'm off to the park today, hopefully it isnt too overrun with those annoying Pink Sox fans (the fake bandwagon jumpers, not the hardcore fans).

GM-Carson said...

From MLB Trade Rumors- The Phillies bullpen has pitched better as of late, but according to assistant general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr., someone it appears general manager Pat Gillick relies on quite heavily, that isn't stopping them from looking at ways to improve the situation.

But at the same time, he also reported that nothing is about to transpire. "We continue to talk to clubs and we'll look for possibilities, but right now we don't see anything imminent." With both Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber on the disabled list (Garcia could come off the list to pitch on April 7th or 8th), there is little wiggle room for a trade.

*Have a good time ChuckM!

Bob D said...

I agree with most of your assesment. However I believe Utley and Rollins will do even better than what you may even be thinking. Utley could even top the 330 BA and Rollins finally hit over 300 BA. Burrell should improve over last year and may even reach the 40HR plateau. I agree Rowand may only be average as a hitter and I feel Bourn will be the starting CF by August.

Garcia and Eaton should easily give the team good winning percentage say 35 - 40 wins over 60+ starts.
The bullpen I feel will be both good and bad. The bad will likely be Gordon and Alfonseco by mid season. The good will be Madson, Geary, Smith, and midseason call ups Sergovia, Bisenius, Happ, possibly Castro, and whoever they may trade for.
As for the bench Dobbs may prove to be a super utility guy with a 300+ BA and Ruiz may even be better than Barajas. Werth should be a capable 4th OF with the potential to be a starter if needed. However I think Victorino, Bourn, and Burrell will be the starters by late season.
The positional players you listed as in waiting Uhg! Lets hope it never comes to that. 3B Costanzo and C Jaramillo and Marson are more likely to see time on the team and they are much better than all of those guys.
Four other pitchers to watch by seasons end are Edgar Garcia, Carlos Carrasco, Scott Mathieson, and maybe even Drabek. They are all the real deal and give this team much hope for 2008 and beyond.

GM-Carson said...

BobD- I didn't sell Utley short, as I'm predicting an MVP for him. .300+, 35+ HR, 110+ R, and 110+ RBI...that's freakin' awesome! And for Rollins, I expect a terrific all-around season, with only a dip in his homerun #'s.

GM-Carson said...

Screw Adam Eaton! I'm tired of our starting pitching getting destroyed this spring.

Skeeter said...

I gotta go with 93 wins. Because that would give us 69 losses, which is a sexy number. And because of 1993. Also, I wanted to one-up Carson.

I see a HUGE season from Rollins. And an even bigger one for Abraham Nunez ....the best Phillies ever! (a lot of sarcasm intended)

GM-Carson said...

Michael Bourn just grounded out to end spring training. In fact, Bourn made the last out in the past 2 games...ominous?

Ruiz, Dobbs, and Burrell went deep. Eaton pitched like the crap he is, but Matt Smith and Geoff Geary pitched nicely in relief.

Overall, it was a boring spring training with questions still lingering. Our bullpen pitched well over the last week and will most likely be league avearge. Our rotation, which was thought to be our strength is a bit dinged up right now, but Myers, Hamels, and Moyer will be fine, with Garcia hopefully jumping in soon...Eaton blows! Our offense will score plenty of runs.

chuckm said...

Okay, back from the park. I know it didnt count in the standings, but I am sick and tired of the Red Sox making the Phillies look so weak. Eaton was ridiculous. He was constantly ahead in counts and would end u-p getting rocked while Dice-K was behind in the counts but managed to put away most of the batters he didnt walk. Howard came pretty close to a 3-run jack in the first and Burrell nicely turned on an inside pitch and drilled it into the stands. Matsuzaka was weird to watch. He works slow, has a very slow windup and at times he was way wild, but in the end he did rack up 7 K's in 4 innings and the Phillies had a hard time making solid contact on him. He reminded me a bit of Mariano Rivera. So, it turned out to be men vs boys as far as the A teams went and after a few innings of scrub vs scrub, me and my crew decided that we would rather finish our remaining beers in the parking lot. Missed Dobbs and Choochies HRs and with so many Sox fans there, you wouldnt know who was being cheered. So, thankfully the Phillies wont have to have another Inferiority Complex Weekend series this year against the Red Sox and heres hoping Myers brings the W on Monday.... Oh yeah, very disappointed in Eaton. He hasnt brought anything to the table thus far. Another crap outing like this and I say send him to the pen
when Lieber heals.

fans said...

Did anyone catch the tv coverage - after Burrell hit his home run he gave the finger to the camera. Apparently he was talking to manager Francone. The announcers were dead silent - finally they said Pat was just telling everyone he was number 1.

chuckm said...

Yeah, word is that it was friendly smack going back and forth between Pat and Tito.

Maria said...

http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/403/image008wc8.jpg

Let's hope Ryan Howard can get back on track. It's bothering me a little that he's done so poorly in ST. Hopefully it's not an indication of what's to come. & the Mets are playing tomorrow night on ESPN so here's to hoping they lose.

GM-Carson said...

I watched parts of the game on tv, but regrettably missed Burrell's 1-finger salute. I need to get me an image of that to post on this site. Hell, I'd make that my computer's background.

ChuckM- Thanks for the game analysis. You're now a senior correspondent for WSBGM's.

GM-Carson said...

Two relief pitchers the Phils are now available. Francisco Rosario is out of options and the Blue Jays designated him yesterday. Ricardo Rincon has been released by St. Louis. Dan Kolb is also available after failing to make the Buccos bullpen. I'd like to see some of these guys signed and put in Ottawa as insurance.

Anonymous said...

zolpidem drug zolpidem 10mg strong - zolpidem tartrate long term usage

Anonymous said...

order ambien without prescriptions where to buy ambien sleeping pills - sleeping pill similar ambien

Anonymous said...

where can i buy xanax online xanax street value - xanax xr 1 mg twice a day

Anonymous said...

buy xanax online xanax bars mixed with alcohol - xanax withdrawal expect

Anonymous said...

buy zolpidem online zolpidem side effects depression - zolpidem 10mg effects

Anonymous said...

buy ativan ativan online uk - ativan vs xanax insomnia

Anonymous said...

xanax cheap xanax valium overdose - alprazolam 0 5 mg bula

Anonymous said...

diazepam 10 mg drug drug interactions diazepam - diazepam muscle relaxant dosage

Anonymous said...

best place to buy xanax online effects of .75 mg xanax - order xanax no prescription overnight

Anonymous said...

buy diazepam generic valium effects of diazepam 5mg - dosage of diazepam for dogs

Anonymous said...

order lorazepam ativan withdrawal muscle twitches - teva lorazepam 1mg lorazepam 1mg

Anonymous said...

ambien cr ambien side effects nih - buy ambien next day delivery

Anonymous said...

buy carisoprodol buy soma online legal - carisoprodol 350 mg recreational use

Anonymous said...

valium no prescription needed order valium online australia - order valium online legal

Anonymous said...

generic ambien what is ambien used for - ambien schedule 3 drug

Anonymous said...

carisoprodol drug carisoprodol compound - carisoprodol y diclofenaco

Anonymous said...

cheap diazepam buy valium online with mastercard - buy valium from trusted pharmacy

Anonymous said...

ambien 5 ambien side effects fda - ambien cr headaches

Anonymous said...

buy soma online no prescription will soma show 10 panel drug test - carisoprodol tramadol interaction

Anonymous said...

buy valium online cheap makes best generic valium - valium pills look like

Anonymous said...

buy valium online drug interactions with valium - cheap valium online uk