Thursday, December 28, 2006

Projections

At the beginning of the year, as we did last year, Carson and I will make predictions on the upcoming season, including the records of the Phillies and Pirates and stats for individual players. Some guys we'll predict to have good years, some to have bad years. They are merely predictions, based on nothing but instinct and feeling. They should not be confused with projections. Projections, with no offense meant to Charlie Manuel, are retarded. I'm sure the people who do these projections (like ZIPS, Chone, etc.) are very smart, but they aren't Miss Cleao. They aren't part of Dion Warwick's Psychic Friends Network. They are just a bunch of losers who live in their parents' basement and have big computers. And their computer stat projections add about as much to the baseball world as a pile of dog crap on Ed Wade's lawn. All they do is project stats based on previous preformance. Basically, they publish a load of projections where good players have good year, average players have average years, and bad players have Nunez-esque years. Wow. Thanks for the knowledge, skippy. Take the ZIPS Phillies projections as an example.

Pat Burrell - .262-28-105 - did we need a computer to tell us this? Lots of K's. Low average. 30 jacks. 100 RBI's.
Rowand & Victorino - .274/.275-12/11-52/59 - what? average outfield stats for average outfielders? Groundbreaking stuff, ZIPS.
Fabio Castro - 3-3 4.92 - this is just stupid. No way Manuel will put Castro in enough games to get 6 decisions....

They also predicted Ryan Howard will hit lots of homeruns, Jimmy Rollins will have a low OBP and the pitching staff will have loads of guys with ERA's over 4.00. Again, thanks for the info.

You can look at these projected stats for days, but in the end, all they tell you is what you probably already knew. Good teams are likely to be good, and bad teams are likely to be bad, and the Phillies are likely to finish a few games out of the Wild Card. Real baseball is not Strat-O-Matic baseball. Computers can't tell you everything. Please don't waste your time examining these projections.

Corey

11 comments:

GM-Carson said...

A-Men my brotha in crime! Projections are fine and dandy if you only gaze over them every now and again or if you're really into fantasy baseball and are worried about playing time or something trivial like that. I'm sick and tired of these trouser-ticklers claiming that we shouldn't trade Lieber because ZIPS says he's going to have a good year. Screw that- trade him because we have surplus starting pitcher and a half-ass bullpen. We know what Burrell is going to do, we know Rollins won't learn how to walk, we know Nunez will bat .333 with 15 jacks and steal 20 bases...he's Nunez afterall...j/k. Screw those nerds beating off to stats all the time. I've become so pissed lately when dealing with stat-whores...the game is played on the field not the computer!

*Good rant Corey.

~Carson

furiousBall said...

those predictions would be totally awesome...but seriously, you don't need predictions or Rowlands OBPSWSMISP (on base percentage plus slugging with short men in scoring position) to know that we should be close to the same offensively and marginally better on the mound.

Bob D said...

Thanks for the warning, I was going to plunge scissors into my eye looking at stats. Is Carson President of No Hit Nunez fan club??
I'll just go back and wish for the Phils to score more runs than the other team 95 to 100 times next season, 4 more times in the league championship series, and 4 more times in the world series. Yeah, that will about do it.

GM-Carson said...

Bob D- I like your breakdown of the offensive needs for next season. So simplistic, so true.

And I am the Head of the No Nit Nunez anti-fan club...hate him!

~Carson

skeeter said...

I was looking at these ZIPS predictions on wednesday and the best one is sandoval's 3 homers and 41 rbis. How is that going to happen?

I also remember last year there were predictions that lieber would have a sub-4 ERA. HA...look how that turned out.

And utley with only 166 hits doesn't make sense. Thats a dropoff of almost 40 hits from last year.

My ultimate prediction which I GUARANTEE will happen: Charlie Manuel will make a decision that will make you very very very angry.

skeeter said...

also... OBPSWSMISP (on base percentage plus slugging with short men in scoring position)...is just hilarious

BloodStripes said...

Hear ya loud and clear. Why bother with individual projections. There are way too many future variables to take them seriously.

BenJah said...

i'm so happy we have these computer projections.....otherwise we might ACTUALLY have to play the season. phew!

there ought to be a trophy for LOL one liners.....i'd give it to furiousball today

i know this sounds crazy, but for what it's worth i think utleys hits will go down.....doesn't mean he wont have the best season for a mlb 2nd baseman, but thats just how things go.

i'm more concerned w/ things i dont know like:
- will manual have the sense to use the bullpen properly?
- this gillick have the sense to fire manual?
- will burrell have the cents to pay his hookers?

Mike Edelman said...

I, like Bill James, do not believe that pitcher projections can be done.

GM-Carson said...

Well hello there Mike, glad you stopped by. Quick question for ya- did you also know Bill James was born R-Tard? It's been confirmed that he's just a high-functioning one that's good with #'s.

I've said it once and I'll say it a thousand more times if need be- Danny Sandoval is a no-talent ass-clown!

~Carson

BloodStripes said...

Danny Sandoval is not a no-talent ass-clown!

He is a all-clown ass-talent!