DeFratus is a Winner

It took to the middle of May for the Phillies to realize they needed Justin DeFratus in their bullpen, and thank goodness they did.  In 3 appearances he's notched 2 wins, a hold, and allowed nary a base runner in 1 and 1/3 innings pitched.  He's quickly earned Manuel's trust and he's making fans take notice.

Series Preview- Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds (25-16) @ Philadelphia Phillies (19-22)

Pitching Match-Ups:
Friday, 7:05 - Tony Cingrani vs. Cliff Lee
Saturday, 4:05 - Bronson Arroyo vs. Respect the KK
Sunday, 1:35 - Homer Bailey vs. Petite Bone

Red Stockings Bats:
R - 195 (6th)
AVG - .251 (17th)
OPS - .728 (11th)

Joey Votto/1B (.456 OBP) and Shin-Soo Choo/CF (.468 OPS) are on base nearly half the time.  Then comes Brandon Phillips/2B (36 RBI) in the lineup knocking them in with regularity.  Not to be forgotten, Jay Bruce/RF has 14 doubles and Todd Frazier/3B has 6 HR and 25 RBI.  There are some holes in this lineup C, SS, and LF, but the others are more than capable of swinging the game in favor of the Reds.

Red Stockings Arms:
ERA - 3.43 (4th)
WHIP - 1.19 (1st)

Tonight's starting pitcher, rookie southpaw, Cingrani, is striking out 11.89 batters per 9 innings to go along with a 2.89 ERA/0.96 WHIP.  Tomorrow's starter, Arroyo, continues to churn out quality outings (3.76 ERA/1.14 WHIP).  The Phils don't get a break on Sunday either with Bailey's 3.51 ERA/1.15 WHIP.  Their rotation has been great, and that's with staff ace Johnny Cueto on the DL.  Also, once the ball has been handed over to the bullpen, a trio of talent is there to hold the fort down (Aroldis Chapman, Sam Lecure, and Sean Marshall).

Prediction:
The Reds are good at both scoring runs and preventing them.  The Phillies are bad at both scoring runs and preventing them.  Therefore, Cincinnati takes 2 outta 3.

Big Z & The Terrible Trio

With Lannan and Halladay on the DL and the Phillies in need of starting pitching, Amaro inked Carlos Zambrano to a minor league deal, that includes and opt-out clause of July 1st. Big Z's temperament has been well documented, whether it be fighting with teammates, coaching staff, or umpires, he's a hothead. It's a low risk, high reward signing, that doesn't bother me as long as he doesn't come to fisticuffs with Utley by the 3rd inning of his first start. It may be hard to believe, but he's still only 31 years old and has been a good pitcher for most of his career. Zambrano owns a lifetime 132-91 record over 1959 innings with 3.66 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with the Cubs and Marlins. He's a helluva hitting pitcher too- .238/.636 with 75 R, 24 HR, and 71 RBI.

Terrible Trio:
This cannot be overstated- Raul Valdes, Jeremy Horst, and Chard Durbin suck.  That is not mean, that is a fact.  When they come into a game, the losing score only becomes worse.  It's Charlie Manuel's version of the white flag.  As soon as he motions to the bullpen for any of the terrible trio, you know it's game over...for the Phillies.

2013 Stats:
Valdes - 7.65 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 5 HR
Horst - 5.29 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 2 HR
Durbin -7.30 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 3 HR
Collectively - 49 IP, 10 HR, 6.80 ERA, 1.67 WHIP.

Amaro, do something!  Please!

With the way the Phillies have suffered through injures over the past few seasons, they might want to invest in some Better Braces for the 25 man roster.

Ya Gotta Believe?

The 2013 season has been gloom and doom here on We Should Be GMs. Perhaps there is one more run left in this group. Maybe we should believe. The following are reasons to think this team might still have a shot at glory.

Rookie Starting Pitcher Magic:
Cole Hamels (2006), Kyle Kendrick (2007), JA Happ (2008/2009),Vance Worley (2010/2011), and now possibly Jonathan Pettibone were successful rookies that made major contributions towards the Phillies winning ways.  Hamels and KK remain integral parts of the rotation, while Happ and the Vanimal have been shipped out.  Pettibone has been great through 5 starts: 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 29 IP.  His turn every 5th day is secure for the time being while Halladay is out.  Another rookie, Tyler Cloyd, has an opportunity to step up and impress as well with John Lannan on the DL.

Bullpen Improvement:
Jonathan Papelbon remains a premier closer, despite his infrequent save chances this season.  Mike Adams is dealing with a backache, but he's a top-notch setup man when available.  Antonio Bastardo is thriving this year as the go-to guy in the 7th inning.  Justin DeFratus has already earned Manuel's trust in just 2 appearances and has the potential to be a late inning reliever.  Phillippe Aumont has upside, but his control is his stumbling block (10 BB in 11 IP, 1.91 WHIP).  That leaves Jeremy Horst, Raul Valdes, and Chad Durbin as the only detractors.

Depth:
Freddy Galvis, Kevin Frandsen, Laynce Nix, and John Mayberry provide Manuel with options.  Galvis is a wizard with the glove and has produced at the plate so far.  Frandsen continues to hit in a Phils uniform and can play 3B/2B/1B.  Laynce Nix has been clutch pinch hitting- .350/1.050 in 20 at bats.  Mayberry can play position in the outfield and rips lefties (lifetime against LHP- .283/.870).

Return to Form:
1) Cole Hamels is a better pitcher than what he's shown in 2013.  Expect him to return to ace status soon.  2) Carlos Ruiz is a better hitter than this- .209/.509, expect a rebound to an OPS in the .750 range as soon as he gets his groove back. 3) Ben Revere is not this bad- .237/.548.  Although he'll never hit for power, he is only 25 years old and hit .281 with 74 stolen bases over the last 2 seasons in Minnesota. 4) Jimmy Rollins will never be a prototypical leadoff hitter, but he's better than his current .674 OPS.  Once he gets rolling, 15 HR/25 SB with an OPS near .725 seems reasonable.

Domonic Brown has Arrived:
For years Phillies fans have hoped the hype was real, but to their dismay it hadn't been.  However, Dom is showing life in his bat and his defense is improving.  Can it be that he's finally figured it out?  I tend to think so.  At 25 years old, he's still young and developing as a MLB player.  He's currently batting .257/.747 with 15 R, 7 HR, and 19 RBI.  He seems capable of a .270/.780, 20 HR, 75 RBI campaign.

They're Alive:
Chase Utley (.289.858) and Michael Young (.303/.773) have been producing like their old selves.  Saint Utley has reclaimed his status as an elite second baseman while Young has been steady with the bat and makes the routine plays at third, despite his poor range.

Does all this add up to a winning formula?  Ya gotta believe?   

Series Preview- the Slugging Indians

Cleveland Indians (21-16) @ Philaelphia Phillies (18-21)

Pitching Match-Ups:
Tuesday, 7:05 - Scott Kazmir vs. Petite Bone
Wednesday, 1:05 - Corey Kluber vs. Cole Hamels

Indians Offense:
R - 179 (6th)
AVG - .264 (7th)
OPS - .787 (1st)

Unlike last series, Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher will give a boost to the lineup.  That's scary considering the Indians outscored the Phillies 20-2 over a 2 game set.  Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, Mark Reynolds, and Ryan Rayburn will be there to help out too.

Indians Pitching:
ERA - 3.88 (15th)
WHIP - 1.28 (16th)

Kluber and Kazmir are a notch below mediocre, as far as starting pitchers go.  Though, they very well could twirl quality starts against the lifeless Phils offense.  The bullpen remains Cleveland's strength, with Chris Perez, Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, Cody Allen, and Rich Hill all rocking ERAs south of 3.25.

Drugs Matter:
Carlos Ruiz is batting .200/.481 through his first 12 games coming off suspension for a banned substance.  Keep in mind, this was Chooch's 2nd time failing the piss test.  I wonder how his stats pan out now that he's "clean".  Hopefully it's just a slow start for him and he's back to his old ways sooner rather than later.  If not, perhaps a visit to a pharmacist is in order.

Prediction:
Phils have the upper hand with the pitching match-ups, but Hamels has found a way to continually disappoint this season, so I say Cleveland sweeps the short series.

Series Preview- Dbacks

Philadelphia Phillies (16-19) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (19-15)

 

Pitching Match-Ups:
Thursday, 9:40 - Cole Hamels vs. Patrick Corbin
Friday, 9:40 - Tyler Cloyd vs. Ian Kennedy
Saturday, 8:10 - Cliff Lee vs. Trevor Cahill
Sunday, 4:10 - KK vs. Brandon McCarthy

Snakes' Bats:
R - 153 (9th)
AVG - .252 (15th)
OPS - .726 (12th)

Paul Goldschmidt/1B is a beast (.320/1.005, 9 HR, 30 RBI) and he has a talented quartet of outfielders helping him guide the offense (Cody Ross, Gerardo Parra, Jason Kubel, and AJ Pollack).  Player to watch- Didi Gregorius/SS, who has lit the world on fire in 11 games this season (.405/1.159, 10 R, 4 DBL, and 3 HR). Oldie, but a goodie, Eric Chavez is holding steady at 3rd too (.275/.849).

Snakes' Arms:
ERA - 3.57 (8th)
WHIP - 1.27 (12th)

Corbin (1.80 ERA) and Cahill (2.80 ERA) have been fantastic this year, but Kennedy (5.19 ERA) and McCarthy (6.75 ERA) have disappointed.  In the bullpen they have the un-scored upon Matt Reynolds pitching setup and Heath Bell taking over at closer for injured JJ Putz.  The Dbacks entire bullpen is decent.

Robbed of The Howard:
Last night umpires screwed the Oakland Athletics out of a potential victory and their shortstop, Adam Rosales, out of the Howard.  Rosales belted a "homerun" to only have it ruled a double, even after video review clearly showed it should have been a 4-bagger.  It's hard to believe people get paid for doing their jobs so poorly, but here we are with umps still pulling in a regular paycheck. *Rosales previously struck out and committed an error in the game.

What We're Drinking:
If variety is the spice of life and beer is the nectar of the gods, than I recommend picking up a variety pack of Appalachian Brewing Company brews.  Included in the case is ABC's flagship Water Gap Wheat Ale, their delicious malty Jolly Scot Scottish Ale, refreshing Mountain Lager, and hoppy Purist Pale Ale.  Not only does ABC have great beers, but they also have 5 brew pub locations where you can get your grub on (Harrisburg, Gettysburg, Lititz, Collegville, and Camp Hill).

Mystery Solved- The Origin of Jonathan Pettibone

*Is Jonathan Pettibone the lovechild of Andy Pettitte and Ricky Bones?

*KK continues to be the staff ace.  Since the beginning of July 2012, Kendrick has tossed 133 innings to the tune of a 2.57 ERA/1.05 WHIP and a record of 13-5.  Believe that! 

*In the spirit of giving credit where credit is due- Ryan Howard has been hitting much better.  Currently batting  .282/.833 with 6 HR and 20 RBI.  Not great, but certainly improving.  With warm weather quickly approaching, a Howard power surge might be too.

*Halladay was sent to the DL with a bum shoulder and Joe Savery has been recalled from Lehigh Valley.  Given the crappiness of fellow lefties, Horst and Valdes, he could stick around if he pitches better than crap.  Let's hope he does.

*Tyler Cloyd will get the start on Friday, with a corresponding roster move needing to be made.  I vote for releasing Chad Durbin or demoting Valdes or Horst.

*This team is confusing.  They looked like one of the worst teams in baseball against the lowly Marlins on Saturday and Sunday, but then look like one of the best teams in baseball facing the World Champion Giants the past two nights.

Series Preview - World Champion Giants

Philadelphia Phillies (14-18) @ San Francisco Giants (19-12)

Pitching Match-Ups:
Monday, 10:15 - Cliff Lee vs. Madison Bumgarner
Tuesday, 10:15 - KK vs. The Freak
Wednesday 3:45 - Petite Bone vs. Barry Zito

Giants Offense:
R - 140 (9th)
AVG - .264 (7th)
OPS - .716 (13th)

Tubby Panda (aka- Pablo Sandoval/3B) can flat out hit.  Buster Posey/C, Brandon Crawford/SS, and Hunter Pence/RF have been holding it donw too.  They don't have one regular with an OPS under .641.

Giants Pitching:
ERA - 3.76 (11th)
WHIP - 1.28 (13th)

Bumgarner, Zito, and Lincecum have been the Giants best starting pitchers this season.  Sergio Romo is lockdown in the 9th, and his setup man Santiago Casilla is pretty damn good too.  In other words- Phils ain't hittin' this series.

Prediction:
Phils suck, who cares.